The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-13-2023 may or may not be reaching your inbox this morning. Our webmaster (me) really fouled up the site yesterday with some updates that went afoul. So I’m firing off a two handicap breakdown before I rebuild several pages and try to get the rest of the site up and running…from a laptop in a hotel room. The odds are stacked against me. A couple featured handicap winners would surely make things better, eh? BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
BOSTON RED SOX @ TAMPA BAY RAYS (TBR -215, 8)
C Kluber (R) vs J Springs (L)
At some point this Rays club is going to lose. Will it be this afternoon with Jeffrey Springs on the mound, who has yet to allow a run in 13 innings this season? I’d argue that the market continues to price the Rays on the high side and I cannot blame them. Their toughest task came yesterday with a 9-7 scare over Boston – a game in which they rested both Lowes going against the lefty Chris Sale.
Today, the Rays lineup squares off against a familiar face with the veteran right-hander Corey Kluber. Although his start against the Pirates went considerably better than his opener against the Orioles, so many of the underlying numbers point in the same direction. Walks on pace with strikeouts, minimal ground ball contact, a ton of hard hit balls, and a .250 BABIP. Keep in mind that Tampa Bay is slashing an ungodly .286/.367/.578 in their first 12 games. These numbers are well beyond anyone’s expectation for the long haul.
The Icebreaker Is Coming
One primary scenario in this handicap is Boston scraping across a run or two against Jeffrey Springs. The southpaw’s 0.00 ERA is backed up by a stingy 1.41 FIP/2.29 xFIP and 2.52 SIERA. These underlying metrics are in the direction of a mid-3.00s FIP full-season expectation. So far, so good though. Tons of ground balls and weaker contact while continuing where he left off last season with good swing-and-miss stuff will make the Sox’ job that much tougher this afternoon. Especially when the only guys hitting worth a damn are Alex Verdugo and Raffy Devers.
If there’s any weakness with the Rays right now it may be their bullpen. Not in the sense that they are performing poorly. On the contrary. They’ve been good – right around my marks for them. It’s the fact that Jason Adam and Ryan Thompson may be unavailable today, let alone the status of their closer Pete Fairbanks. But this sounds more like me trying to find a weakness with Tampa Bay more than anything. I just can’t lay the price when my numbers don’t support it.
WAGER: Rays First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 -110 (0.55u)
WAGER: Rays First 5 Innings -1/2 -140 (1.4u)
Regardless, I’m sticking with Jeffrey Springs and the Rays’ bats against Corey Kluber. The first 5 innings money line could be sketchy if Springs loses his invincibility, though a depleted Red Sox lineup – no Duvall or even possibly Yoshida – helps the cause. Plus I’m going back to the well with the team total approach that stung me yesterday afternoon when the Astros fell a run short of reaching this same total against Rich Hill. What could possibly go wrong?
OAKLAND ATHLETICS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (BAL -225, 10)
A Oller (R) vs. C Irvin (L)
These teams have not been shy when it comes to scoring the last couple days. 32 runs between the clubs is something if not an indictment of their pitching! I’ll keep this one quick because the money line is priced a little high on Baltimore, yet the buyback on Oakland is not quite there for me. It’s the matchup against former teammate Cole Irvin that has my interest on this warm April day at Oriole Park. My confidence range on the Athletics team total falls around 4.3 – 4.7 runs. So the low market price on over 3.5 runs -122 at FanDuel makes plenty of sense to me.
It’s not that Oakland slashing .255/.330/.333 against left-handed pitching inspires a ton of confidence as much as Cole Irvin’s inability to miss bats so far in 2023. Look past his 9.35 ERA and .407 BABIP…those don’t mean much after two starts. The 4.91 FIP/5.86 xFIP does say something. And that something is Irvin’s profile as a mid-4.00s FIP pitcher. As lackluster as the A’s lineup is, Cole is hittable and this crew has actually been hitting. My numbers put their team total on the high side of 4 and the price is right for me.
WAGER: Athletics Team Total Over 3.5 -122 (1.5u)
Heading for Home
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