Dishing out handicaps with losing results is not quite what I’m going for, but that’s been my M.O. in the last couple articles. Regardless, the season rolls on with plenty of action to keep us all busy. Let’s fire up Wednesday with an early game solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-12-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
HOUSTON ASTROS @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES (HOU -165, 9)
Mother Nature has granted PNC Park an absolute gem of a day with temps in the low 70s, pure sun, and a nice breeze out to left center. It’s almost like Friday’s game against the White Sox except warmer. That is one where I was on the wrong side of a 12-7 first 5 innings fiesta – a game that also featured the grizzled Rich Hill on the mound. He gets the tough task of facing an Astros lineup that is slugging .542 against lefties despite being in an overall offensive lull by their standards to start the season. Having Chas McCormick at the top of the lineup in a situation like this helps the cause of jumpstarting the action against a susceptible southpaw.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has been scrappy to say the least. And that’s a good thing considering I am long on this 7-4 club. When it comes to today’s contest, however, their modest offense is slightly exceeding my big-picture expectations. Turns out the Pirates’ heart of the order consisting of Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutcheon, and Carlos Santana is enough of a force to keep the team competitive more often than not. Since Pittsburgh heads to St. Louis for a big divisional series without a break, I would not be surprised to see someone like Reynolds get a breather today. That’s something to monitor if you prefer to wait until lineups are set.
J Urquidy (R) vs. R Hill (L)
Let’s get back to the Rich Hill situation. As much as I respect a guy just a couple years younger than me out there laboring in a pro-scoring environment, Rich has been a key contributor to that phenomenon this season. Like last week, he faces another lineup with a clear strength against lefties. The man throws strikes. But there’s been an excess of fly balls and hard contact – a tough combination to pair with excellent hitting weather this afternoon. That sort of profile puts him in the mid-4.00s to mid-5.00s FIP range, relying purely on deception and craftiness to fool hitters into sub-optimal contact.
Jump to the other side and the Astros’ Jose Urquidy offers an effectiveness range in the low-to-mid 4.00s. His two starts this season have varying results primarily due to home runs. The pair of long balls against the White Sox in his opener were the difference makers from a more mild start last week in Minneapolis that also featured 7 hits and 5+ strikeouts. Similar to Hill, Urquidy is also a contact pitcher flirting with a little too much hard contact since last season. That makes the first 5 inning total of 5 runs borderline tempting – especially with some help from the weather.
WAGER: Astros First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Runs -115 (1.725u)
ALTERNATIVE: First 5 Innings Over 5 Runs -115
I don’t hate the idea of Pittsburgh contributing to the first half total with Urquidy on the mound. While I’d much rather play over 4.5, the markets do not have many alt lines available yet this morning to play a small ladder of 4.5, 5, 5.5, etc. So my money is on the Astros making enough noise in the first couple trips through the order akin to Rich Hill’s last start, though I would be foolish to expect that type of landslide again. Again, his craftiness could lead to frustration from the Astros hitters as well as myself. Here’s to getting a good start on the Wednesday betting card with some early Houston runs.
Heading for Home
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