Speaking of which, it’s certainly good to be back on the MLB grind. It doesn’t hurt when the Red Sox have your back and smack down the Dodgers 8-1. Rodriguez exceeded our high expectations with only 1 earned run and 10 strikeouts against the potent LA lineup. Maeda was as solid as could be on the road (7 Ks / 3 ER) but the Dodgers’ pen was the major liability in this one as they gave up another 5 runs to seal the deal. Boston undoubtedly has its weaknesses, though the offense is not one of them.
There’s a decent MLB card in store today, but only one game floated to the top to warrant a pre-game bet. I’ve disregarded an early-season “order” for me to stop backing the Cincinnati Reds and took a position on them this morning. It’s a mile-high showdown of two struggling offenses, and I’m all over it…
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
All About Freeland: Reds +114
“Struggling” may be a misnomer, so let’s just say that Cincy and Colorado are underperforming at the plate right now. Neither team has scored more than 3 runs in any of their last 5 games (yes, there was the All-Star Break separating 4 of those 5 games). Last night’s matchup of Sonny Gray and Jon Gray had a lot to do with the diminished offenses as they combined for 15 strikeouts and only 3 earned runs.
The most surprising trend among these clubs is how poorly the Reds bullpen has performed lately. They’ve blown some tight games – including last night – primarily because they are giving their opponents just too many chances to convert runs. Friday’s pair of solo homers in the 8th were more indicative of the power of the Rockies lineup at Coors Field, yet it still reflects a negative trend for the Cincinnati relievers. Colorado’s bullpen has been fairly steady this season but is by no means a lock-down unit.
Pushing in the Chips
I’m giving an edge to the Rockies offense and a nod to their bullpen based on the current form of Cincy’s relievers. So there must be a compelling argument somewhere in there for me to back the Reds on the road, right? You bet, and it’s a strong position against Kyle Freeland. This type of play that rely heavily on a starting pitcher being on one extreme edge or the other is boom-or-bust by nature.
Kyle Freeland struggled mightily with the Rockies before being sent down to AAA in June. His walk ratio was high (3.79 BB/9) and the home runs that he gave up regularly only made it worse. Freeland gave up homers in 9 of his 12 MLB starts; 5 of those starts were multi-home run outings. He’s not necessarily a fly ball pitcher, as only 37.9% of his pitches put in play were of that variety. The major problem is that those fly balls left the yard 21.6% of the time.
After a promising 2018 season, you have to wonder how the 26 year-old would handle the trip down to AAA. I’m not saying that he did not take it well mentally, but I am willing to make the statement that he struggled mightily in those 5 weeks at Albuquerque. His walk rate was even higher (4.85 BB/9), an elevated .379 BABIP suggests that he wasn’t fooling anyone, and a 19% HR/fly ball rate was barely better than this metric in the bigs. Maybe this kid just doesn’t have it this year.
Veteran Presence
The limited ceiling of his counterpart, Tanner Roark, should not be overlooked. I’ll argue that Roark won’t lose you the game but has the ability to keep his team in it. He’s typically good to eat some innings and grind out 5+ while not giving up more than 4 runs. My estimations put him somewhere around 2-3 runs this evening, possibly 4 if he is stretched to 6 innings of work to spare the bullpen.
It’s tough to quantify the style of pitcher Roark is. His 35.7% ground ball rate is on the low side, but only 10.8% of the fly balls leave the yard. He’s good for about 1 homer per game and can run into trouble with walks at times, though Roark has done much better with his control since May.
Though Roark has tossed some very sharp games on the road, I cannot conclude that he is a better road pitcher. Tanner is a solid veteran that stays focused and should have a much better outing than Freeland. However, there is the underlying risk that the struggling Reds hitters cannot capitalize on this scenario and Colorado takes care of business for the home crowd.
Where are These Teams Headed?
The Rockies had dropped 6 in a row prior to last night’s late-inning victory. This streak included a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks, a team they had owned this season prior to that series. There is a decent chance that the Rox are rejuvenated after the ASB and look to get their bats back on track.
Cincy was trending positively before dropping two to the Indians right before the break. I must say that the Reds have demonstrated some resilience after a horrendous losing streak to start the season. They’ve since cut losing streaks short throughout the year, with only a pair of streaks with 4 losses. That being said, I think you have to look at this game in a vacuum; and I’ll take Roark and the Reds over Freeland in this short-dog scenario.
