Make it two days in a row now that our Solo Shot hit a very sketchy patch. This time, it was Max Scherzer loading the bags full of Phillies in the 1st. Mad Max somehow took care of business while the Mets’ bats kept their end of the bargain. That’s three first 5 inning winners in a row – a good habit to develop here in the early goings of the season. I’m still pretty selective in my approach this early in the season considering that I give very little consideration to 2022 data right now. After scouring the board, I came away with another Solo Shot for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-14-2022. BOL!
2022 Featured Handicap Results
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ NEW YORK YANKEES
K. Gausman (R) vs. L. Severino (R)
Nothing like going back to the well in this AL East contender showdown in the Bronx. Toronto looks to leave town with a 3-1 series victory at the expense of their hosts who want to salvage a split. Much like Monday’s handicap, I make a 4% edge for the Jays offense over the Yankees without respect for individual starting pitchers. But that’s a raw number. Two things jeopardize this perceived advantage tonight: 1) Vlad, Jr.’s spiked hand and 2) the top five hitters in the Toronto lineup having all played six games in a row.
Both offenses have held their own so far this season. New York received significant contributions from several hitters with Aaron Boone cycling in off days for his key cogs. Anthony Rizzo (247 wRC+), DJ LeMahieu (191), Aaron Judge (150), Aaron Hicks (175), and Gleyber Torres (134) have all been quite productive – yet somehow this team has produced the 20th most runs in the league. It’s like 2021 all over again. But the season is young and weather in New York has been generally less conducive to scoring in April. Reasonable temps and a wind out to right should have a slight positive bias towards scoring tonight. Toronto’s 29 runs scored is overweighted by their three-game series in the Rogers Centre in which they put up 20 runs against Texas. As far as I’m concerned, both teams’ run production to date do not make much of a difference in my outlook.
Battling the Unknowns
The rest and availability issue concerns me the most with the Toronto side. Their production has been heavily subsidized by Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., (283 wRC+), George Springer (212), and Teoscar Hernandez (175). Hell, in this series alone Vladdy is slugging 1.167 and Springer .768. But Guerrero’s hand injury challenges his availability for the series finale tonight, as does the fact that center fielder George Springer hasn’t had a day off since game #1. Toronto’s offensive advantage essentially levels out if these two are off of the lineup card.
Luis Severino poses the other big unknown. He’s been on the mend since 2018 and made a decent 3.0 IP return to action against the Red Sox on Saturday. Aaron Boone pulled Luis after knocking the rust off with 65 pitches in those 3 innings. The fastball had zip and secondaries were decent. His counterpart Kevin Gausman had a decent Blue Jays debut against Texas – just not of the low-3.00 FIP caliber that we saw from him in San Francisco the last couple seasons. That’s neither here nor there as managers around the league have kept a short leash on starting pitchers for the most part this season.
The Yankees are plenty optimistic about Severino’s outlook for 2022. At this stage in his comeback, I have him penciled in the high-3.00 FIP range. Gausman gets a 1/4 run edge as opposed to Monday’s matchup of Manoah vs. Taillon where I assessed a 1/2 differential. The margins are tighter in this one – at least in the first 5 innings markets. Full game prices are similar to Monday’s while the first 5 is about 10 cents cheaper around Toronto +100. This shows respect for Luis Severino and the likelihood that Vlad, Jr. will be out of the lineup tonight.
Scrapping the Late Game
Given bullpen usage, I still have New York’s relief unit around a 1/2 run better even though Gausman should go deeper than Severino. Once again, if I’m going to back a side with a starting pitching edge and a bullpen disadvantage the first 5 inning approach is where I want to be. Toronto’s lineup uncertainty makes it about 4% better for me versus the full game. That’s the move for Thursday’s Solo Shot – back Gausman and try to squeeze out a couple runs off of Severino. My decision to take this position also rests on the fact that there’s a decent chance that my assessment of the Yankees’ starter is on the conservative side and he’s not quite in sub-4.00 form.
WAGER: [0.5u] Blue Jays First 5 +101 *Gausman*
As of early Thursday morning I have just a half-unit position on the Blue Jays first 5 innings behind Kevin Gausman. Guerrero’s hand and his cohorts’ availability have me in wait and see mode for lineups to come out. If two of the Vlad, Jr., George Springer, and Teoscar Hernandez nucleus are not on the lineup card this afternoon, my position is complete at 1/2 unit. Otherwise, I’ll likely round it out after lineups are confirmed and keep my fingers crossed for another victory with the Jays this week!
Heading for Home
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