ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
New England Patriots -550
New York Jets +650
Buffalo Bills +1000
Miami Dolphins +2500
It’s hard to remember a time when the New England Patriots haven’t owned the AFC East and their opponents. Looking ahead to the 2019 season we’ll explore the question we’ve asked each year in recent memory: Is this the year that someone dethrones the mighty Patriot dynasty? A lot of writers seem to think this division is as tight as it’s been in a while and that the parity here finally matches many of the other divisions. Let’s take a deeper dive into the East and explore some of the key betting and fantasy football opportunities this season has to offer.
Buffalo Bills
2018 Record – 6-10
2018 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
The 2019 Buffalo Bills are one of the more polarizing teams to start the season. Ask the experts how they’ll do this year and you’re as likely to hear that they’ll go 4-12 as you are to hear that they’re a sleeper playoff team. This team has some intriguing pieces that probably explain why no one seems sure on where they’ll finish. The offense could potentially be more potent this year but there are a few really key questions. Did they do enough to upgrade the offensive line? Will the weapons that were brought in be able to stretch and spread the field out? And most importantly, will Josh Allen take the anticipated jump in his second season, or suffer a sophomore slump?
Mitch Morse should be a nice anchor at the center position and the added depth along the line, including rookie Cody Ford should help Allen. The receiving corps also is deeper this year as the Bills are looking for speedster John Brown to be a downfield threat. Cole Beasley was added to help keep the chains moving on third down, and Zay Jones quietly had a really solid second half of last season. The running back position boasts two of the all-time greats in LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore, but don’t be shocked if 3rd round draft pick Devin Singletary ends up taking the lead over the aging backs on the depth chart.
As has been the case for the better part of the last two decades, it’s the Bills defense that should keep them competitive each week. This unit should be a top-ten group and could potentially be even stronger than that. Tremaine Edmunds looks poised to become a true star in the league, and grabbing Ed Oliver with their first round pick should help keep the defensive line deep and talented despite the retirement of team leader Kyle Williams. The secondary is solid and the continuity should only help them. The biggest deficiency looks to be the pass rush, although Jerry Hughes actually lead the league in QB pressures last year and Shaq Lawson will be playing for a future contract in the league. So just how good can this team be? The ceiling is pretty high, but the floor is equally as low.
2019 Strength of Schedule – 24th (.480)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -160, under +140)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 6-10
If you haven’t figured it out yet, this team is really tough to handicap early in the year. We’ll probably observing rather than wagering on or against this team to start the season.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
This team’s defense should keep them close in most games. With a team that will routinely be getting 4 points or more, teasing them over +10 could provide enough of a cushion to win.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Josh Allen (QB)
With the exception of a couple of nice Shady McCoy years there hasn’t been a whole lot to get excited about in the fantasy world with the Bills in recent history. That would seem to be the case again this year as this team looks like they’ll be using a running back by committee approach and don’t have standout weapon on the outside. Josh Allen is definitely an interesting watch however as his ability to churn out yards on the ground make him a potential bye week option if needed.
Miami Dolphins
2018 Record – 7-9
2018 Record Against the Spread – 8-8
The Miami Dolphins are a team in transition entering the 2019 season. The mediocre Adam Gase and Ryan Tannehill era is officially over (along with the interim Jay Cutler era) and fans in Miami are excited about the philosophy new head coach Brian Flores brings to the organization. The Dolphins were able to grab the expendable former first round pick quarterback Josh Rosen and will be giving him a long look in hopes that he may be their future long-term leader. Rosen didn’t do much to wow anyone as a rookie a year ago, but in fairness, he was playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league. In the meantime, they’ll also dust off veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick to see if any of that early magic from 2018 can carry over from the west coast of Florida over to the east. Whoever starts at the QB position is going to be going into battle with a less than stellar supporting cast. Kenyan Drake is an interesting player out of the backfield as a dual threat, and when he has been utilized, he has produced some solid results.
On the defensive side of the ball, there are some playmakers, particularly Xavien Howard who was an absolute monster at the corner a year ago. This team struggled against the run last year and added rookie Christian Wilkins at defensive tackle, but overall this front seven could still be a liability. Long-time leader and sack master Cameron Wake has departed and this team may have to get creative to generate consistent pressure. Despite all of that, the Dolphins always seem to hang around and other than an occasional off week usually are a tough out for whoever they’re playing. But let’s not kid ourselves, this team is in the first year of a full rebuild and it could be ugly and maybe even for a while. It’s hard to imagine this team isn’t picking in the top three in next year’s draft.
2019 Strength of Schedule – 18th (.500)
Team Win Total Odds – 5 Wins (over -110, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 4-12
In what figures to be a competitive division and with uncertainty at the QB position and a shaky front seven on defense it’s hard to envision this team winning more than 4 games this year.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Under Totals
If Rosen is in at quarterback this group figures to struggle putting points on the board. Note however, that if Fitzpatrick is lining up behind center that the points for both teams figure to go way up.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Kenyan Drake (RB)
It can be tough to jump on fantasy player of teams that may not be relevant during the season but Drake offers some nice potential upside if you can get him at a good price. His ability to catch out of the backfield along with potential of big plays make him an option if you’re in a deep RB league or in a PPR daily format if the matchup is soft.
New England Patriots
2018 Record – 11-5
2018 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
As if we needed any reminders, last year’s version of the New England Patriots showed us once again that no matter what is going on, this team is almost always the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even if you have an annoyance or hatred towards them, you have to respect what Belichek and Brady continue to do season after season. Looking ahead to this year, there’s really only one unknown that will most likely determine whether or not this team is in the mix come January… Tom Brady’s battle against Father Time. For the first time ever, Brady showed signs of being mortal a year ago. In fairness, there were like 20 some QBs in the league that would have loved to have that kind of mortal season.
Let’s switch gears for a minute away from Brady and look at how the rest of this roster is shaping up. Party animal and TE extraordinaire Rob Gronkowski is gone and there are still some questions at WR outside of Julian Edelman with the departures of Chris Hogan and Cordarelle Patterson. Will new additions Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and veteran Benjamin Watson be able to create the matchups offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is looking to exploit? Time will tell, but one thing that we do know is the running game should be set as Sony Michel proved to be the lead back in a crowded stable. James White is still in that mix, and if you haven’t noticed, Brady seems even calmer than usual in the pocket when White is lined up next to him.
The Super Bowl gave us a glimpse of how good this defense can be even though it doesn’t necessarily have any marquee over the top names on it. Trey Flowers and Malcolm Brown left as the Pats not surprisingly did not overpay to keep them which should put a little worry there, but bringing in Michael Bennett to boost the pash rush could prove to be one of the best moves any team has made. If Jamie Collins has enough gas left in the tank in his second stint with the team, that would be a nice bonus for this group. So ultimately what can we expect this year? Let’s go back to TB12. The fate of this year’s team will depend solely on Tom Brady in our opinion. If he can play at last year’s level, we’d expect this team to be competing in the AFC championship game yet again. If this is finally the year that Brady’s play dramatically drops off, that could make things really interesting in the AFC East. For our money, we’ll believe the dropoff when we actually see it. Until then, it’s business as usual for this team.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 27th (.473)
Team Win Total Odds – 11 Wins (over -140, under +130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-5
Other than the old death and taxes thing, you can pretty much count on New England finishing the season right around that 11-5 mark. Look for overreactions when this team has an “off-week” and grab the value the following week.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
You might shy away from certain props with NE as they’re values are pretty inflated, but don’t let the number scare you. Julian Edelman still manages to beat his catch total props nearly 70% of the time.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Tom Brady (QB), Sony Michel (RB), James White (RB), Julian Edelman (WR), Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (TE)
Lots of potential names in fantasy land as usual for the Pats. Brady can still win you some games, but don’t get fooled into grabbing him early from name recognition, wait until he adds value in later rounds or possibly is even your 2nd QB. Edelman and White are machines in PPR leagues or daily leagues and keep an eye on Sefarian-Jenkins. While there’s no guarantee he will be able to produce, it’s possible he could be a surprise and delight.
New York Jets
2018 Record – 4-12
2018 Record Against the Spread – 5-10-1
The New York Jets had a pretty busy offseason on both sides of the ball and at first glance it appears as though they’re poised to make a big leap in 2019. A New York welcome to big names, Le’Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley and Alabama rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. While they all figure into the plans of the team, much like rivals New England and Buffalo, much of their improvement will rest squarely on the shoulders of their quarterback. Sam Darnold made a splash last year and showed that he certainly has the ability to be a big-time player in the league. The Jets added some talent around him on both the offensive line and at the skill positions to set him for an improved sophomore season. At BetCrushers we like to explore odds, and to be honest, Darnold seems 50-50 to us. We wouldn’t be shocked to see him morph into one of the league’s new generation of stars, but we also wouldn’t be surprised if he never quite gets there. The jury is still out and and we’ll be watching just as closely as “Gang Green” and their fanbase is.
There is another interesting subplot on offense as Le’Veon Bell is one of the bigger question marks despite his history and talents. Will the year off help his legs or will it take some time to shake the rust off? We know Bell is talented, but how will he perform against some 8 man boxes without guys like Antonio Brown on the outside to loosen up the middle? It’s also worth noting that James Conner and Jaylen Samuels had a lot of success in Pittsburgh while Bell was resting at home. Are those guys that great or is it possible the offensive line and scheme were a larger factor in Bell’s success than previously thought?
On the other side of the ball, the Jets appear to have some playmakers that could help propel them from a bottom of the pack unit to a possible standout group. The addition of Quinnen Williams on the line with Leonard Williams should cause enough havoc to free up C.J. Mosley to be the playmaker he can be. We’d argue that the Jets overpaid for Mosley, but you can’t deny that he is a high-level linebacker. The Jets’ safety tandem has the ability to be as good as any in the league. When bringing in top talent one thing to always watch early on is how well they gel together as a group. On paper the Jets look as though they could be vastly improved from one year ago. But can incoming divisional coach Adam Gase figure out a way to mix and match these new pieces and develop his young QB quickly or will that take some time? We’re going to need to see a little more before we jump on Fireman Ed’s bandwagon.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 27th (.473)
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-8
The Jets will be better than a year ago, but the question is how much better? A .500 record seems about right so most likely there won’t be a ton of line value in either direction throughout the season. As with the Bills, it may be wise to watch a bit early in the season to see what kind of path this Jet’s team takes.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
If you want action on this Jet’s team it’s possible that they will be overvalued a bit early in the season. If they haven’t come together as a team it’s possible that the addition of big names will make them a trendier pick in terms of laying or getting points. If we were betting them, we’d lean towards going against spread with this team particularly early in the year.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Le’Veon Bell (RB), Robbie Anderson (WR)
We’re watching Le’Veon Bell for sure, but from the sidelines. He will be a top pick in fantasy drafts but he’s not on our board unless he falls drastically. Robbie Anderson on the other hand has a lot of potential upside value. He and Darnold showed signs of developing some chemistry during last season. Don’t be surprised if Anderson finishes the year with a lot of yards and possibly scores.
