PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-4
SEASON RESULTS:
71-46-2
Week 15 Recap:
Kareem Hunt wasn’t a factor running the football in the Browns primetime win which secured a positive week for the BetCrushers with our prop bets, albeit a small one. With heavy volume, finishing 5-4 isn’t really what we were hoping for, but a couple of near misses in the early games sealed our fate. J.K. Dobbins needed only 8 yards with over one quarter of football to play, but the Ravens opted to get Gus Edwards and Justice Hill some extra work in the forth quarter and he fell just shy of his rushing total. Our wide receiver plays all cashed, but we had a 1-2 in the Saints/Chiefs game which hurt us. No regrets on our plays as we played the trends, and simply missed on a couple.
Week 16 Preview:
Hopefully you caught our Twitter pick of Tom Brady’s yardage total, one that he met in the first half of their game with the Lions. With late player props being added on these weeks with Saturday games it’s tough to get all the plays out, but we have 8 lined up for Sunday to share with you. Only one under as the rest are overs. A belated Merry Christmas to all and best of luck with your wagers! NOTE: We have cancelled the previously discussed Jalen Raegor prop.
Our Picks:
Ben Roethlisberger – Under 272.5 Yards Passing (-110)
It’s always easy to take shots at veteran players who aren’t performing, and in the case of Ben Roethlisberger where there is smoke there’s fire. Big Ben has looked pretty awful the past month or so, and despite his declaration he wants to return next season, it’s fair to wonder if he can? Looking to avoid a four game losing skid he has to take on a tough Indianapolis Colts defense. The Colts have been just average defending the pass, but 273 yards seems like a mountain for the struggling Roethlisberger.
A.J. Green – Over 36.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
It’s been an overall disappointing season for Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green who’s been the third or deeper option in the passing game. He gets instantly elevated Sunday with Tyler Boyd missing the contest due to a sustained concussion against the Steelers. Ryan Finley makes the start again, which is a passing upgrade from Brandon Allen who had been behind center since the loss of Joe Burrow. The Texans rank near the bottom of the league in total defense and in a game that should see a lot of points, Green should be able to eclipse this relatively low total yardage.
Deshaun Watson – Over 274.5 Yards Passing (-110)
In what’s been a “lost” season for the Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson just continues rolling along at a high level. He’ll face the Bengals who are fresh off their “Super Bowl” win versus their rival Steelers. We’re expecting a bit of a letdown from that defense this week which means Watson should continue his throwing success despite a shortage of weapons. He’s been able to elevate guys like Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen which is the mark of a quality quarterback. Watson’s yardage total is at 274.5 yards, a mark he has eclipsed in every single home game this season. Even with a thinned out receiving corp, he should find his way to yet another 300 yard game against Cincinnati.
David Montgomery – Over 80.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Hopefully you caught our DFS article in which we stated our case for David Montgomery as the Star of the Week. Anything less than a 100 yard game for Montgomery against the hapless Jaguars would be a disappointment. The Bears are playing in a must-win game, while the Jags are really in a must-lose win in order to keep the number one pick in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. The Bears have really re-committed to the running game and Montgomery has rewarded them with the most productive last four games at running back in the league. There’s no reason to expect that this trend won’t continue Sunday and we’re all in on a guy we were previously very critical of. Being flexible is a good thing.
Calvin Ridley – Over 83.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
When you’re a number two receiver on a team things tend to go one or two ways when thrust into the number one role. Either you thrive as the top target, or you struggle as the focal point of the opposing defense. Calvin Ridley has proven he has the talent to be a legitimate number one receiver in the league. With Julio Jones sidelined yet again in their matchup with the Chiefs, Ridley once again will have his number called often. The Falcons figure to need a lot of points to keep pace with Kansas City which means even if the game isn’t close, Ridley should put up a nice stat line. Having notched a 100 yard day in all three starts without Jones, we’ll bank on him getting a fourth on Sunday.
Russell Wilson – Over 23.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
It always seems like a roller coaster ride in terms of Russell Wilson and his rushing yards week to week. It’s actually not as difficult to pinpoint when you look at his matchup history. The two biggest factors are open receivers, and importance of the football game. Wilson isn’t afraid to tuck and run when his receivers are covered, something that should happen against the Rams defense. Jalen Ramsey shut down D.K. Metcalf in their first showdown and will draw that assignment again. As far as importance of the game, well the winner of this is in the driver’s seat for the NFC West crown so it doesn’t get much bigger than that. Wilson won’t hesitate to use his legs and should get over the total.
Jalen Hurts – Over 232.5 Yards Passing (-110)
The Philadelphia Eagles have quite the dilemma for 2021 with what they’re going to do with the quarterback position. As for this weekend, the only question is whether or not rookie Jalen Hurts can continue his hot play against the Dallas Cowboys. Some things working in Hurts favor are his receiving group is basically as healthy as it’s been all season, and the Cowboys stink at defending the pass. Hurts was electric last week throwing for 360+ yards as the Eagles offense has looked substantially better with him at the helm. Perhaps his biggest threat to not getting to the yardage over will be how much he ends up running the football. Really this comes down to taking a low total against a bad defense. Let’s see how the rookie does.
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