A Saturday in February means one thing is for sure: a huge college basketball slate is staring us down. XFL Week 3 rolls on today as well as qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series race at Las Vegas, so our eyes will be on those events as well. We settled on a nice betting card last night that includes a pair of Atlantic 10 matchups; one featuring contenders and the other with teams playing out the remainder of the season. Let’s dive right into the Road Dog Report for 2/22/2020!
(687) LaSalle +3 @ George Washington
The 12-13 LaSalle Explorers visit the nation’s capital to take on the 12-14 George Washington Coloniels. This has been a season to forget for both teams as they sit in the bottom half of the A-10 standings. It’s all about pride for these kids today, though it comes down to covering the spread and cashing the ticket for us handicappers. LaSalle is 3-10 in conference play, experiencing a stretch of seven straight losses until their recent 2-2 “run”. GW has won two in a row after snapping a three-game losing streak.
There isn’t a lot that the Explorers do well. LaSalle turns the ball over, shoots around 40% from the field, and is often plagued by personal fouls. They can be pesky at times, generating steals and snagging offensive rebounds to produce much-needed points. George Washington excels at the high-percentage shot but can be bullied on the glass. This is a game where LaSalle’s 6’8″, 250-pound forward Ed Croswell needs to bring his A-game. He’ll square up against 6’7″ forward Jamison Battle who is more of a perimeter threat that may move Croswell out of the block and clear the lane for his teammates. But here’s the deal: LaSalle loves the perimeter shot and sinks or swims with it. The three ball gives them a puncher’s chance but can also put them behind the proverbial eight ball.
On the Money
Believe it or not, both squads have been producing in the betting markets lately. They’ve covered 67% of their recent games; LaSalle in the previous six and George Washington in the last twelve. Despite being 1-5 away from home in the A-10, the Explorers are 3-3 ATS. GW is 3-3 in home conference games and 4-2 ATS, finding themselves in a rare spot as favorites this afternoon. They split their two previous games when laying points in the A-10, losing at Fordham (-3) and winning vs. St. Joe’s (-5).
As bad as the Explorers have been in the conference, LaSalle has ironically excelled as a favorite (3-1) while dropping all nine games as a dog. The silver lining is that they’ve covered their last two of four when getting points. I contend that LaSalle falls flat against superior A-10 competition but can hang with teams in the same class. The Explorers easily swept Fordham and St. Joe’s this season and today face a George Washington team that is on the top end of that grouping.
LaSalle’s reliance on the three-point shot and second-chance points makes them a volatile team to handicap. Backing them is certainly not for the faint of heart. If anything, there is a point or two of line value to the Explorers based on recent prices against teams in their class. One example is the home matchups against St. Joe’s in the past month. Both George Washington and LaSalle put a beating on the lowly Hawks as 5-point and 7.5-point favorites, respectively. Oddsmakers implied that LaSalle was 2.5 points better than GW with that comp, so you make the call about the +3 today. The volatility is no joke with the Explorers but I’ll hold my nose and take the 3 points with them today.
(715) Rhode Island +2.5 @ Davidson
Enough of the Atlantic 10 also-rans, let’s look at the top half of the conference. The 19-6 Rhode Island Rams roll into North Carolina with an 11-2 conference record to face the 13-12 Davidson Wildcats. Davidson is a disappointing 7-6 in conference play but is not an easy out by any means. Their high-scoring offense is predicated on ball movement, reducing turnovers, and bombing three-pointers. Nobody is safe in their house, where the Wildcats are 5-1 in conference games.
Rhode Island uses the deep shot more sparingly but can be effective at 34.4% from beyond the arc in their thirteen A-10 games. The Rams dominate the glass, get to the free throw line often, and also do a good job of protecting the ball in their possessions. 5’10” guard Fatts Russell is their main playmaker averaging just over 20 PPG. Russell is not afraid to get in the mix and has benefitted by drawing a lot of fouls and capitalizing as a 83.4% free-throw shooter. 6’8″ forward Cyril Langevine gives them 30+ minutes and dominates the glass. He has four double-doubles in A-10 play and a few more near misses. Rhode Island is a complete team that would be a contender to win the league if it wasn’t for the Dayton Flyers.
Don’t sleep on Davidson even though their record is barely above .500. I rate them only about three points worse than the Rams and they are tough at home. This should pan out to a line somewhere around pick ’em or Davidson -1 but the spread is a couple points higher probably because the Wildcats have been blowing teams out at home lately. They’ve won four straight games by double-digits and feel the need to catch fire going into the A-10 tournament. Guard Kellan Grady has delivered this season and 6’10” sophomore Luka Brajkovic has been a nice surprise for their inside game. Both teams have the talent and capability to make this anyone’s game this afternoon.
On the Money
When it comes to ATS performance, this is a strength-on-strength matchup. Rhode Island is 5-1 both straight up and ATS in A-10 road games, while Davidson has covered four of six home conference battles. The Rams’ lone road blemish came at the hands of the dominant Dayton Flyers, who are on one hell of a run. Rhode Island was an 11-point dog at Dayton on February 11th, which was their first time catching points since being 8.5-point dogs at VCU a month earlier. They beat VCU outright by nine points, sending a signal to the league and oddsmakers that the Rams were for real this season.
Davidson’s last three home games have come against inferior competition but to their credit, the Wildcats took care of business. As favorites of 13.5, 11, and 7.5 points they beat those foes by 30, 35, and 15. Rhode Island is a much tougher task without a doubt. That said, you must respect this Wildcats squad at home – especially with the fans backing them in full force in a revenge spot. Rhode Island beat them 69-58 in Kingston as a 3-point favorite early on the A-10 calendar. Even with a strong home court advantage, a 5.5-point swing of the spread between venues tells you how much the oddsmakers now value the Rams. From a power ratings perspective, the +2.5 gives me a couple points of value and I’ll gladly take it considering a Rhode Island win is a high-probability outcome.
Covering All the Bases
Just when you thought the football season was over, the XFL saves the day for us football junkies. We’ve got a quick look at Week 3 and a teaser play, but the action kicks off soon so be sure to check it out. Our sixth MLB win total is in the books and divisional previews roll out on Monday starting with the NL West. It’s a great time of year for handicapping! Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below to catch all of the new content from The BetCrushers Team as it drops.
