We appreciate our loyal readers sticking around despite middling NFL results and the serious hole I’ve dug in the young college basketball season. The dogs that I’ve backed in the first couple weeks have been more apt to lie down for a nap in the second half than keep fighting. That said, I have to tighten up my handicapping and stay focused on the Road Dog Report for 12/17/2019.
“Barring major turnover issues, I handicap Montana State as a good matchup to the Bison’s strengths.”
That’s a called shot that I prefer to have been wrong on last night. Montana State certainly delivered in the turnover department with a lopsided 16-5 ratio as NDSU cashed in with 26 points off of those turnovers. Adding insult to injury, LMU coughs up a huge lead late to lose on a buzzer-beater from downtown. Good thing I was asleep for that meltdown. As much as I would appreciate more success with these results, I’m not anywhere near jumping ship from my battle-tested handicapping approach. There’s only one way to proceed: tighten up and keep plugging away!
(623) Portland State @ Pepperdine -8
The 5-5 Portland State Vikings head south down the Pacific coast to Malibu to face the 5-6 Pepperdine Waves as their non-conference schedules wind down. My core ratings separate these teams by a shade under three points with the morning line of -8 at most shops. Pepperdine should have a size advantage with the Edwards brothers in the middle, but Portland State can counter with senior forwards Rashaad Goolsby and Alonzo Walker.
Points off of turnovers and second chances are keys for the Vikings if they want to be competitive tonight. They’ve been great on the offensive glass, which helps put them in a position to out-shoot their opponents. This is key for Portland State since they are an average-shooting team in general. The Waves, on the other hand, are very good behind the arc and shoot well overall. Portland State must create more shooting opportunities to overcome this disadvantage.
Pepperdine’s free throw shooting is first in the country at 85.9%, which is substantial considering they get to the line quite a bit. In fact, both teams are heavy-handed when it comes to fouling their opponents. The Waves have sent their opponents to the line 283 times in 11 games, which is near the bottom in D1 basketball.
On the Money
Portland State’s 4-4 ATS mark looks better when you dissect their performance on the road. They’ve covered in four out of six games away from home (1-0 ATS on a neutral court), with both ATS road losses coming as 8.5- and 5.5-point dogs. Unfortunately, tonight’s number is right in that neighborhood.
Pepperdine is 5-6 ATS, but only 1-3 ATS at home. The Waves were double-digit favorites in their last two against Central Arkansas and Idaho State, just missing covers by slim margins. Based on those recent prices of -14 and -12.5, respectively, tonight’s number is a few points heavy when looking at the disparity in my core ratings. I have Central Arkansas and Idaho State 12- and 6-points worse than Portland State.
Based on where the lines were set in each team’s last two games, I believe that Pepperdine -6.5 is a fair number. After adjusting this down a half-point due to my ratings, Portland State +8 is a take for me. My plays around this number over the last few days fell short as the road dogs wound up in the end-game death spiral of them missing shots and repeatedly sending their opponent to the line. Regardless, I’ll continue to play the percentages and look for the Vikings to stay close and get inside the number tonight.
