This week in baseball kicks off with the annual Patriots’ Day tradition in Boston, featuring an 11:10 am first pitch at Fenway Park while the Boston Marathon is run. A couple weekend series like Detroit/Boston will wrap up today while eight new ones get underway. Without further delay, let’s look at three games on the Monday slate in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-20-2026.
DETROIT TIGERS @ BOSTON RED SOX (BOS -135, 8)
J Flaherty (R) vs. S Gray (R)
Boston’s slow start to the 2026 season stabilized for a hot minute before coming home this weekend to face the Detroit Tigers. The Sox are in position to split this four-game series despite scoring just 4 runs in the previous three games. Cooler weather has something to do with their offensive slowdown. But the Tigers’ left-handed starting pitching gauntlet of Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez did not help their cause any. Boston’s lineup has underproduced regardless of the situation, though they’ve hit righties about 16% more effectively than southpaws.
Detroit’s Jack Flaherty stifled the Royals and Twins in his last two starts after a rough outing against his former squad, St. Louis. Walks are the underlying issue of the veteran’s profile (15.9%), as is hard contact (46.0%) and decreasing ground ball outcomes (32.7%). Cool temps with a breeze towards Pesky’s Pole has an overall negative effect on carry – something that could help Flaherty navigate 5+ innings this morning. The fact that early season producers Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu are slumping certainly helps his case as well.
Finding a Groove
Boston starting pitcher Sonny Gray earns the slight edge over his counterpart but his inconsistency devalues this as a strong factor in the handicap. Granted, his rougher pair of starts came against a red-hot Twins lineup and an early-season letdown at Cincinnati. The 36-year-old righty has been a “put it in play” guy with minimal strikeouts (12.5%) well below his mid-20% projections. Tons of ground balls (55.6%) and reduced hard contact (36.1%) have kept him out of too much trouble otherwise.
The Tigers lineup has been fairly consistent after their sluggish start and are thriving against right-handed pitching. Key hitters Kerry Carpenter, Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, and Colt Keith are producing nicely against righties so far this season. Considering that Detroit has faced only two right-handed starters in their last six games, Sonny Gray is a sight for sore eyes. They’ve hit southpaws about 30% less effectively and the Boston bullpen has three decent ones lying in wait – most notably, closer Aroldis Chapman. Both bullpens have been good for the most part in this series and are generally unencumbered for the finale.
In light of the variety of scenarios we run each matchup through, our price on this game spans both sides of an even-money proposition. However, we may still be a touch high on the Sox’ offense compared to current form. It’s a tough ask to lay it with them as a 57% favorite. Is +115 enough to back Jack Flaherty and an offense in a better place? That’s the question to wrestle with as the clock ticks towards first pitch.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ MIAMI MARLINS (MIA -130, 8)
M McGreevy (R) vs. M Meyer (R)
Riding high on a five-game win streak, the surprising St. Louis Cardinals move from Daikin Park to LoanDepot Park for a three-game series before heading home. They struck while the iron was hot, taking advantage of a slumping Astros club this weekend. St. Louis is doing its part to keep the NL Central as the only division in baseball where all teams have a winning record. Now this homegrown lineup goes toe-to-toe with Miami’s offense built by a flurry of trades the last few seasons. And they’re in a better position now that their 2025 All-Star representative Kyle Stowers is back from injury.
Evaluating Tradeoffs
Miami’s small offensive edge in the matchup bars above conflicts with the trending plots below. That discrepancy is due to our higher outlook on the Marlins and their actual performance to date, which has been more fruitful against righties than St. Louis. Stowers’ left-handed bat supplements Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards, and Otto Lopez as menaces to righties so far in 2026. The question is whether St. Louis’ 25-year-old Michael McGreevy can continue to outperform his peripherals and lack of deception. Strong command and a .188 BABIP lead to a 2.49 ERA and 4.24 FIP/4.27 xFIP that Miami’s pesky lineup would like to exploit tonight.
Miami starting pitcher Max Meyer’s numbers are more true to form (4.12 ERA, 3.79 FIP/3.86 xFIP) and projections. He’s pitched fairly well against the potent lineups of the Braves and Yankees, making it a matter of cooling off Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, and JJ Wetherholt. Although closer Riley O’Brien is likely unavailable tonight, the Cardinals bullpen has enough in the tank to take on the final 3-4 innings of the game. Extra innings could be problematic though as Miami’s relief unit is in good shape and running well. This line is priced well if McGreevy reverts to the low-4.00s. But will he stumble tonight? That’s the main question in my opinion.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ CHICAGO CUBS (CHC -110, 8)
A Nola (R) vs. C Rea (R)
It’s already time for a rematch of last week’s series in Philadelphia when the Cubs took two of three at Citizens Bank Park. But hitting the road may be just what the doctor ordered after going 2-7 on their home stand punctuated by a sweep at the hands of division rival Atlanta. The Cubs managed a sweep of their own against the hapless Mets, though Philly arguably brings more to the table against a right-hander like Colin Rea.
They hit him up for 3 runs last Tuesday on an Edmundo Sosa home run but eventually fell 10-4 as the Cubs took over the game late. Aaron Nola served up 3 runs of his own in that one, though we make him the better option of the two this evening. Both lineups have hit right-handers fairly evenly in the big picture and the Cubs get the nod for better offensive form. However, the caveat is that Philadelphia faced four left-handed starters leading up to last night’s primetime game. And they’ve found themselves at the bottom of the barrel with that split (.179/.273/.279).
Is the Price Right?
Although JT Realmuto’s status is iffy at best, big hitters Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper continue to be the centerpieces of a lineup in need of a spark. Can they bring Colin Rea back to reality and ride Aaron Nola to a third quality start? That’s the case for an underdog upset…except the market is pricing the Phillies as a small road favorite. Cubs’ left-handed closer Caleb Thielbar pitched back-to-back nights and their normal closer Daniel Palencia is on the IL. That said, Philly’s closer Jhoan Duran is also on the shelf. This game is still not up at several books but the early look of Chicago near even money makes more sense than laying -115 on the Phillies. Keep an eye on this one as the market develops.
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