The Gausman-Severino main event in the Bronx proved to be quite the pitching duel amongst two high-powered offenses last night. The Jays first 5 inning position also proved to be an L for us, but at least one of the half-unit variety. Lineup uncertainty led to my limited exposure early in the morning then the Teoscar news kept it there. So we move on with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-15-2022 where the board presents several good looks. Good enough for my wife to blast me with the “don’t get cute with it” warning. So noted.
2022 Featured Handicap Results
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ MIAMI MARLINS (-120)
Z. Eflin (R) vs. P. Lopez (R)
Oddly enough, this matchup lines up very similarly to last night’s Gibson-Alcantara showdown. At least in terms of my valuation. So it should be no surprise that I am backing Pablo Lopez against the vaunted Phillies offense this evening. This is another first 5 innings position because of the weight I put behind Lopez and the fact that I hold Philadelphia’s bullpen to be slightly better than Miami’s.
From an offensive perspective, Philly has the big guns – we all know this. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins found a couple friends in Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber this offseason. In the early goings this group has slugged a fifth-highest .416 as opposed the the Marlins’ fifth-lowest .328. So it’s Round 2 of dink and dunk versus hammer time at Loan Depot Park tonight. Philly’s offensive edge is around 5% greater without respect to Pablo, making shortening the game a priority of mine for backing the Marlins.
Holding it Down
As D-Nice said to us last night, “Harper is hitting again.” That could be an issue, as Harper has found success against Pablo over the years. That said, my concern with matchup stats for specific hitters vs. pitchers incorrectly kept me off of Sandy Alcantara last night. Plus this Miami lineup has done relatively well against Zach Eflin – so those out-of-context numbers will have to take a back seat. Lopez is often overlooked as a high-K, low-hard contact pitcher. He has excellent control and generates plenty of ground balls to be negotiated by a pretty damn good defense behind him. That’s opposed to the much-maligned Philly fielding corps, FWIW.
Pablo’s high-3.00 FIP assessment is earned by a simple fastball/changeup combo with a decent cutter sprinkled in. One key reason why I don’t mind laying -120 behind is that he’ll make the Phillies beat him much like the Marlins have to beat Eflin: small ball. That was the way Miami won last night behind Alcantara and that’s where I am at today. Zach Eflin keeps the door open as a contact pitcher. Granted, he doesn’t typically yield hard contact but gives about 1/2 – 3/4 of a run to Pablo in terms of profile. Eflin getting knocked around in two of last year’s three matchups doesn’t hurt, though I respect the additional firepower that Philly brings to the lineup card. I give Miami a firm advantage with Pablo Lopez on the mound – whether their hitters can put a couple runs across the plate should be the deciding point.
WAGER: Marlins First 5 Innings -120
I passed on paying up to -130 to lock in Lopez in this matchup. Could be foolish of me, though my position is with a book that allows for a pre-game cash out on par. So my antennae are up for any word this afternoon that Pablo gets scratched. It’s Pablo or bust in my quest to back undervalued quality pitchers early in the season.
CHICAGO CUBS @ COLORADO ROCKIES (-120)
M. Stroman (R) vs. G. Marquez (R)
The bottom line for me with this game total is that 10 runs is quite a bit for these two offenses. And I’m not overlooking the fact that Chicago has found a spark with Seiya Suzuki. He’s been a stud in the early goings of his MLB debut and could be a difference maker as the guy has hit safely in all six games he’s played in. Likewise, Colorado has received very good production out of Kris Bryant, CJ Cron, and Connor Joe.
But I’ll make this super simple. Marcus Stroman and German Marquez are very similar pitchers in style and substance. Both settle in right around the 4.00 FIP mark on a high-level basis. Hard contact can be their enemy at times, though they are heavy ground ball pitchers with very good defenses behind them. They have swing-and-miss stuff but do not rely on the strikeout to keep them in the game. Plus their ability to consistently get into or through the 6th inning helps take the edge off of the subpar bullpens behind them. Shorter outings from one or both starters are likely to sink the under, though I make this total in the 8-9 range due to weather and these quality veteran starters.
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 10 -105
Since I am still getting my footing with pinpointing totals edges, this is a half-unit position like the four other unders I’ve played this season. Coors Field has earned a wicked reputation as a spacious park to rip balls all over the place in, making any under plays quite tense. In fact, the Dodgers-Rockies under last Sunday proved to be my only loss on unders so far this season. The nasty cross-wind that afternoon led to some shenanigans and the over. If anything, low 60-degree temps and a breeze cutting across from left field helps my cause tonight.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ NEW YORK METS (-220)
Z. Davies (R) vs. C. Bassitt (R)
When your handicap results in a -265 line, you get the itch to get your money down on the big boy. Team total against Zach Davies? I’ll pass on a heavily-juiced over 4.5 runs despite favorable run-production weather with mid-60s temps and a decent breeze blowing out to right. Davies is very attackable as a low-strikeout, high-walk 5.00 FIP pitcher as opposed to Chris Bassitt who gives you soft contact and great control at a level around a run better. Steve Cohen’s newest acquisition goes after hitters with a full arsenal of pitches that should get him through 6 innings this afternoon.
Incremental edges in the field and between bullpens add more fuel to the Mets’ fire. Then you throw in the 15% differential between these lineups given today’s parameters and New York becomes that oh so obvious choice. Both teams are rested after having Thursday off, so no lineup or bullpen availability issues present themselves. Like my old lady said to me, “Don’t get cute with it.” So I’ll pass on the big number and pass on an aggressive ladder play.
WAGER: [0.5u] Mets -1.5 (-111)
I know, I know. Never lay the run line with the home team. Plus the latest buzz around Gambling Twitter is the hard-hitting expose on the value of laying gigantic favorites as compared to making the corresponding run line bet. But I’m an old dog and new tricks do not come easy. That’s why I’m only laying to win a half-unit behind Bassitt and the Mets this afternoon. All complaints can be directed to jj@betcrushers.com if you’re inclined to blast me for my ignorance.
Heading for Home
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