I’ll be damned that I can trust the Mariners more than I can my Cincinnati Reds. That’s the way it goes sometimes, as Wade Miley struggled with his command early and often – giving the Rockies a healthy lead that the Redlegs could not overcome. But Seattle keeps grinding out runs and helped keep Friday’s bankroll damage to a bare minimum. We chop ’em up and roll right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-15-2021. It’s time to get out the door on this beautiful Saturday in May.
Cleveland Indians @ Seattle Mariners (-105)
We return to the scene of yesterday’s victory for a rinse and repeat situation similar to last night’s. Granted, the price of doing business has gone up as the level of pitching goes down. And these offenses continue to trend in opposite directions during the seven-day period leading up to Friday’s contest. Cleveland’s 79 wRC+ lags their full-season mark of 84, while Seattle has warmed up a bit with a 93 wRC+ in this recent period as compared to 87 on the season.
For the Tribe, much of that can be attributed to a lack of production from everyone other than Cesar Hernandez and Josh Naylor. And when facing left-handed pitching, those two have been nowhere to be found. Catcher Roberto Perez, DH Franmil Reyes, and outfielder Jordan Luplow have been clutch against southpaws – putting up OBPs of .333 or better, with the first two players slugging in the .500s. However, the team as a whole has slashed .188/.279/.340 with a 75 wRC+ in this scenario.
Are the Stars Aligning?
Contrast that with a Seattle offense that has produced a modest 94 wRC+ against right handers, slashing .213/.290/.378. Sure, that is not pretty by any stretch of the imagination – but the picture looks a bit brighter on a relative basis with Cleveland. Their core hitters Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, and Kyle Lewis have been quite productive this past week in different ways. Seager and Haniger slugged .636 and .625 in that period, and were joined by second baseman Dylan Moore with a spike in his production. Moore slashed .333/.364/.619 while the speedy Kyle Lewis contributed with a dangerous .423 OBP. Of course, nearly all short-term trends come to an end at some point. But I like how this Seattle offense is making the best of their opportunities right now. And by the way, Jarred Kelenic registered his first MLB hit last night with a 2-run bomb in the 3rd inning.
T. McKenzie (R) vs. J. Sheffield (L)
Will Cleveland’s pitching continue to offer Seattle those opportunities tonight? Both of today’s starting pitchers are about 0.3-0.4 points of FIP worse than last night’s duo of Aaron Civale and Chris Flexen. As a righty, Triston McKenzie presents the Mariners a similarly-favorable split. The 23-year-old is a high-strikeout, high-walk guy who has yet to get out of the 5th inning this season. McKenzie has issued 4 walks in his last four starts as well as at least 1 home run in four of six outings. Plus the combination of his 58.0% hard hit, 20.8% walk, and 16.3% ground ball rates really opens the door for a lineup that has been nothing short of opportunistic.
Southpaw Justus Sheffield has not been spectacular this season by any measurement. He also has command issues at times, walking multiple batters in four of his six starts and giving up 8+ hits in three outings. Sheffield wants to get back on track after taking his lumps at Texas (5 IP, 10 H, 2 HR, 7 R) last weekend. Oddly enough, that came just one week after shutting out the Angels in 6 innings. So it’s fair to say that the 25-year-old has been inconsistent this season. Justus’ 37.4% hard hit rate looks good when compared to McKenzie’s, plus he has generated a solid 47.1% ground ball rate despite struggling with his fastball and slider.
WAGER: Mariners First 5 Innings -110
Again, I am not interested in being on the wrong side of the bullpen pairing. I have to lay 15 cents more juice than yesterday, though the price is still palatable and the situation warrants it. Neither pitcher is spectacular and can really put their team behind the eight ball with a bad inning plagued by walks and hits. But the key differentiator lies with the divergence of these offenses and Cleveland’s sub-optimal splits against lefties. Anything goes with starters this sketchy, though I will play the percentages and ride with the Mariners again tonight.
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (-105)
D. Bundy (R) vs. M. Perez (L)
After a wild one at Fenway last night, these offense-first teams offer up another good one in a Saturday matinee. The Angels throw their ace Dylan Bundy, who is in the middle of a solid 3.49 FIP/3.55 xFIP campaign with another 4+ K/BB ratio and a stingy 29.4% hard hit rate. His fastball, slider, and changeup have not been quite a sharp as in his dominant 2020 season, but there is little denying that Bundy still has some of that mojo flowing this year.
Undoubtedly, manager Joe Maddon wants to get Dylan through the 6th inning this afternoon to avoid taxing one of the worst-performing bullpens in the last two weeks (6.45 FIP/5.08 xFIP). He also needs to get more out of this stout lineup that has slumped a bit in the seven days leading into last night’s battle. They were without All-Star third baseman Anthony Rendon during that time – who returned with a 1-for-4 night – and slashed just .211/.265/.330 as a team. But Boston’s offense cooled down at the hands of the Orioles, slashing .243/.300/.409 last week. Yes, that is “cooling down” for this talented Red Sox offense. But getting limited production from their leadoff pair of Marwin Gonzalez and Alex Verdugo has not helped the mission of keeping the lineup chugging along at full strength.
Improvement or False Alarm?
Boston counters with 30-year-old lefty Martin Perez, who got his act in gear after facing Texas, Detroit, and Baltimore recently. He held those opponents to 2 earned runs or fewer while going at least 5 full innings. However, Los Angeles poses a much stiffer test. Walks have burnt him a couple times this season, though he has worked around trouble with a 0.53 HR/9 rate that is bound to rise over the course of the year. Perez continues to generate weak contact, though my biggest concern is the ineffectiveness of his cutter after bringing that plus-pitch online in 2019.
I don’t doubt that manager Alex Cora will be conservative with Perez against this hungry Angels lineup. Middle relievers Josh Taylor and Hirokazu Sawamura have the ability to eat some innings if Martin gets the hook after five innings or so. I would also assume that two of Boston’s final-inning trio of Matt Andriese, Adam Ottavino, and Matt Barnes will be available to wrap things up. Although they all worked last night, it was after several days of rest so back-to-back appearances is not a stretch. LA’s bullpen is rested for the most part as well, though I doubt that the Sox are too concerned about their middle relief. The question lies in whether they can knock out Bundy before he completes six innings.
WAGER: Red Sox -104
Shortly after booking this wager, I saw this line as good as +105. You don’t want to overpay on Boston considering that the pitching matchup is anything but highly-favorable for the Sox. Although I estimate about a 61% win rate for the home team, -120 would be my upward limit to pay. Martin Perez does not excite me as a Red Sox backer this afternoon – but give me this bullpen and lineup for a playable short home favorite.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-200)
So when I say that you can damn near bet the White Sox offense blindly against left-handed starters, their lopsided numbers tell you about all you need to know.
MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-12-2021 – BetCrushers.com – May 12, 2021
The White Sox versus lefties angle continues to roll, especially after Chicago was able to crack the venerable JA Happ Wednesday night. Since I recently took the opportunity to detail why this team has been so good in this scenario, I’ll take a shortcut and say “click here for the details“. However, I have some reservations while writing this Saturday morning before lineups are announced.
M. Minor (L) vs. C. Rodon (L)
Money line or run line – the cost of backing Chicago today is too steep for me. So let’s focus on the White Sox’ offensive matchup against veteran lefty Mike Minor. We can reasonably expect this lineup to push across a run or two against the Royals’ struggling bullpen (4.85 FIP last 14 days) in frames six through eight. Minor gave this team a hard time a month ago (4 IP, 4 H 1 R) then took his lumps in Kansas City last week (5 IP, 4 H, 5 R) despite fanning 7. But the indicator that turns on the green light for me is that he has not worked much past the 5th inning while walking multiple batters in all starts but one. Mike’s 40.6% hard hit rate and 39.6% ground ball rate couple nicely with the 9.7% walk rate to present opportunities for this excellent-hitting Chicago team.
WAGER: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 -115 (provisional 1/2 unit)
Due to the uncertainty of the White Sox lineup after yesterday’s doubleheader – especially Jose Abreu – I have only 1/2 unit on this position at the time of publishing. If four of the five consisting of Anderson, Moncada, Mercedes, Grandal, and Abreu are in the lineup, I will commit to the other 1/2 unit at a price of -120 or less.
Around the Horn
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