The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-11-2021 returns after a one-day hiatus due in part to a lackluster Monday MLB slate. I left off with a dud from the Miami Marlins’ offense on Sunday despite Sandy Alcantara’s fantastic outing. Between Daniel Vogelbach’s scorching line drive homer and Miami getting picked off the base paths twice, the extra innings loss left a lot to be desired – just like my handicap. Time to keep truckin’ with Tuesday’s full slate of baseball action!
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-120)
Minnesota wants nothing more than to break out of a sluggish start to the 2021 season – and a huge series win against the AL Central-leading White Sox could get it kick-started. They just split a rain-shortened series in Detroit after dropping three of four to the Rangers at home. Chicago, on the other hand, swept the Royals in Kansas City after a series split in Cincinnati. It’s past time for the Twins to get their act in gear if they want to contend in the Central.
K. Maeda (R) vs. D. Cease (R)
Minnesota’s ace Kenta Maeda found his bounceback spot against Texas last week, ending a tough run of starts where strikeouts were hard to come by and hits were plenty. His underperformance can be traced back to a 21.2% strikeout rate and a whopping 44.2% hard hit rate. Maeda paid the price with back-to-back 3-homer games at Cleveland and Oakland before getting right against the Rangers. That latest start could point towards further improvement tonight. Plus his .341 BABIP and 5.26 FIP/3.74 xFIP discrepancy speaks to the notion that Kenta will find the ace form that the Twins need him to be in.
So you have to ask whether Maeda will dramatically turn things around, or if it is more of a slow grind back to being a low-4.00s FIP starter. His fastball and slider have been quite negative to date – something that Chicago’s Yoan Moncada and Yermin Mercedes can take advantage of, as they have all season. Unless Kenta realizes a sudden return to his 2020 form, his susceptibility to getting hit (7+ hits in four of the last five starts) could play right into the hands of this good-hitting club.
Dylan Cease, on the other hand, is a high-strikeout pitcher who struggles with control. Somehow he has survived an ugly 12.0% walk rate by striking out at least 6 batters in four of his last five starts. But he squares off against a Twins lineup that is knocking the snot out of the ball in recent weeks, making those strikeouts even more critical tonight. Cease’s nasty curveball must be on point against Minnesota, who is laser focused on fastballs and changeups in recent weeks. In a vacuum, however, I rate both of these starters very similarly so gauging which of the two excels or fails in a given start is difficult in my eyes.
Meeting in the Middle
While the White Sox’ proficiency against left-handed pitching is well known by now, don’t sleep on how good they are versus righties. In fact, both offenses are effective against righties. Minnesota leads the charge with a .424 SLG vs. Chicago’s .371, though the White Sox have edged them out by about 20 points of OBP. The Twins can punish Cease’s walks with their power, while Chicago should have an edge with their more reliable hitters against a guy who has given up plenty of hits this season. One thing to note is how badly the Twins have fared in extra innings and doubleheaders. Their aggregate 0-11 record in those scenarios leaves a 12-9 mark otherwise and better corresponds to their modest -2 run differential.
Part of that falls back on a bullpen that has widely underperformed with a 4.73 FIP, that is not in good form (6.12 FIP last 14 days). In my eyes, this is where Chicago’s edge should pull ahead tonight. Their bullpen has been very good to date (3.57 FIP on the season, 3.17 in the last 14 days), especially when it comes to Michael Kopech and Jose Ruiz supporting a stout back end of Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks. As long as Tony La Russa avoids the dreaded senior moment, the White Sox’ late-game advantage should pull them through. The market appears to be pricing positive regression for Maeda, so be sure not to overpay if Chicago is your preferred side.
WAGER: White Sox -120
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
P. Lopez (R) vs. M. Bumgarner (L)
Aside from their ineffectiveness at the plate Sunday against lefties Brett Anderson and Eric Lauer, the Miami Marlins find themselves in another situation that suits their splits. Miami are still on the plus-side of the ledger against southpaws this season (.245/.314/.418; 102 wRC+) but faces a man who has found his groove. Madison Bumgarner started the season by yielding 17 runs in his first three starts, then has since rattled off four straight outings giving up one run or fewer. And he is doing it with the highest strikeout rate of his career (26.1%) despite a high mark of 41.8% hard contact.
While it is difficult to tell if Miami can crack MadBum for more than 1 run this evening, I am leaning heavily on one of my go-to pitchers – Pablo Lopez. Pablo finds himself in fantastic form as well, allowing 1 or fewer runs in his last four starts by generating 47.6% ground ball contact and keeping the ball in the yard with a 27.6% hard hit rate. His primary fastball/changeup combo has kept hitters at bay in all but one start this season. He squares off against a D-backs lineup that has been 40% more effective against lefties, assumedly putting the Marlins in a slightly better position.
Although Miami’s bullpen has been very effective in recent weeks – and about 1 point of FIP better over the season – I want my money behind Pablo and will stick to the first 5 inning wager. This could very well end up a 0-0 or 1-1 tie after the 5th, but I’m riding with Pablo tonight.
WAGER: Marlins First 5 Innings -110
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (+120)
B. Singer (R) vs. M. Boyd (L)
From any way you want to look at it, Detroit is one ugly dog. Brady Singer faced this Tigers club just two weeks ago and pitched his best game of the season (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 8K). Plus his 3.45 FIP/4.12 xFIP edges out his counterpart’s performance to date in terms of expected results (2.96 FIP/4.96 xFIP). But when I consider these starters’ season-long projections, you can reasonably call them equals in terms of production.
Aside from Matthew Boyd leaving his last start early due to knee tendonitis, Boyd has been rock solid in his own rights. He countered Singer and the Royals with a 2-run, 8-inning gem of his own but suffered the tough-luck 2-1 loss that day. Admittedly, Matthew has done it with a bit of smoke and mirrors this season – his low 33.3% ground ball and 17.3% strikeout rates have not been punished, in part due to an excellent 5.0% walk rate and effective pitches across the board. His four-pitch repertoire has been positive, with the fastball and changeup truly shining this season.
I put both of tonight’s starters on somewhat of an even footing. However, my money finds the dog mainly because of how these lineups are trending in opposite directions lately. Detroit comes out of the Boston and Minnesota series hitting .293/.367/.478 for a 129 wRC+, as opposed to Kansas City’s less prolific week against Cleveland and Chicago (.224/.300/.341; 82 wRC+). Now I would be a fool to think that this recent discrepancy will hold much longer, especially considering that both clubs are on downward spirals right now. But the splits slightly favor the Tigers, who are 50% better vs. righties (.222/.288/.384; 88 wRC+) as compared to a Royals team that is about 20% worse against southpaws (.233/.284/.359; 79 wRC+).
Is This the Turnaround Spot for KC?
Just like the battle in Arizona, this game shapes up to be a pitchers’ duel – until the starters leave anyways. I want nothing to do with a Detroit relief unit that has been steady all season. Steady in the sense that they are consistently a mid-5.00s FIP group. That’s about a run worse than Kansas City’s, even though that unit is not in the best form right now. This one is anything but pretty, though I will back the veteran lefty as he continues to walk the tight rope against a slumping Royals offense. Trends and streaks are meant to be broken – but in the meantime, I’ll take the ugly home dog in the first 5 innings tonight.
WAGER: Tigers First 5 Innings +123
Around the Horn
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