When it comes to having a plan, yesterday’s included a pair of plus-money games to keep an upward trend alive. Unfortunately, the Miami Marlins completely ran Chase Anderson out of his own building and pounded the Brewers 16-0. I had identified Anderson as the weak link in Tuesday’s run line bet, but Pablo Lopez was the one who truly bucked the trend. Lopez had been a completely different pitcher on the road than at home and was pretty damn close to being a default fade away from Miami, where he has been excellent.
Cleveland switched roles with Minnesota last night, cranking out 4 home runs in their 5-2 victory over the AL Central leader. Shane Bieber pitched a great game and went a full 7 innings as the Tribe held a great offense to 2 solo shots and only 5 hits. Rookie Devin Smeltzer gave a decent effort through 6 innings but yielded a pair of homers in the 7th to essentially seal the deal with a stout Cleveland bullpen waiting to lock it down.
An 0-2 Tuesday knocks 2 units off the bankroll but isn’t enough for me to cry in the Cheerios this morning. Today’s full MLB slate includes several day games. I gave Dylan Covey and the White Sox a really good examination as +170 dogs in Washington but ultimately passed. Chicago is a much better team than most recognize. However, the Nationals are on a hot run where they are getting cooperation from their starters, hitters, and (amazingly) bullpen. The payout looks juicy but I don’t think this is a good spot to fire against Washington.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
Reload and Fire Again: Twins +118
Last night, I conferred with the BetCrushers team on the early line for this game, which sat at Minnesota +128. I felt it was a juicy line considering Perez vs. Carrasco was a fair matchup that could be a slight advantage to Perez. I decided to sleep on it and break the game down better early in the morning. Unfortunately, that meant a loss of 10 cents in line value and, ironically, about 6 more cents of value came back shortly after I bet the game. Our other guys should be able to get a better line here shortly.
Shane Bieber was very effective against this potent Minnesota lineup, but what are the odds that they are stifled again tonight by Carlos Carrasco? Carrasco has struggled in his last 3 starts, giving up 6 home runs and 14 runs over 17.1 innings. His batted ball metrics are decent, giving up 40.8% hard contact and 39.2% ground balls though 20% of fly balls end up as home runs. Minnesota is a big home run team if you haven’t heard the news.
Martin Perez was roughed up in his last start against Tampa Bay and hasn’t been quite as sharp as in the early season. I have to downgrade him somewhat to account for a less-than-sharp outing tonight. Perez keeps fly balls to a minimum (32.0%) and has a much better HR/FB ratio (9.2%) to go with a 33.5% hard contact rate. However, walks are his nemesis and have bitten him in several recent outings. Cleveland may not be the best hitting team in the MLB, but most clubs can take advantage of free baserunners when they are given.
Minnesota’s bullpen is not the most efficient group lately, although the metrics can be skewed by lower-rung relievers eating innings when they have large leads late in the game. Nonetheless, Cleveland has a clear advantage in the late game. What will the score be when the latter innings roll around? My workflow says that the Twins should have a much better day at the plate than last night, though Martin Perez is a little bit of a wild card. I erred on the side of caution with him and still see a slight advantage for the Twins in this game overall.
Rarely has Minnesota been unable to follow up a sub-5 run game with a dominating offensive performance. Carrasco is the right guy at the right time for Twins backers, but Perez needs to hold up his end of the bargain. I’ll take the road dog for +118 yet again.
