One of the least likely contenders advanced to the Round of 8 last weekend by automatic bid. Kurt Busch returned to his home town of Las Vegas and proved that every playoff driver is alive if there’s a race to be won. It’s been The Outlaw’s worst track until he turned the perfect combination of pit strategy and veteran driving into his first career Cup win at Vegas. All but a few of the Championship contenders are in danger of the upcoming cut at the Charlotte Roval, intensifying the upcoming playoff racing action at Talladega.
A Step Backwards
My mid-week betting options are now severely limited without the benefit of 5Dimes’ services. I know that Paul from nascarstyleodds.com begrudgingly agrees. Despite having one arm tied behind my back, I still found an advantageous matchup to put together a one-play betting card for the South Point 400. Unfortunately, the handicap for Austin Dillon over Clint Bowyer failed to translate into results. Austin had the faster car during the long runs, which was a big plus considering that the vast majority of the night was green-flag racing.
A penalty on his pit crew and subsequent mishap crippled his chances to contend that night. The seven lap-long repair under green may have cost him his Championship chances in addition to smothering my lone matchup bet of the night. Credit goes to Clint Bowyer for gutting out back-to-back 12th place finishes at Las Vegas. Dillon’s pace should have pushed him past Bowyer after the pit penalty, but hey, stuff happens. I took my lumps and am beyond ready for high-speed superspeedway playoff racing action!
Playoff Racing at Talladega
Talladega is big, bad, and many times a disaster waiting to happen. The largest oval on the Cup Series circuit is a brutal place for bubble drivers to put their playoff hopes on the line. Follow that up with a road course for the elimination race and you’ve got a perfect storm of desperation hitting the bubble drivers this weekend. That pressure only amps up the volatility of playoff racing at Talladega.
I made the case in June’s GEICO 500 handicap that more tier 2-3 drivers have found more consistent success here than the big guns have. The fact that only Denny Hamlin (4th) and Kevin Harvick (10th) had Top 10 performances this summer helps to make that case. Furthermore, Kyle Busch, MTJ, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano all fell way short of that mark for at least two Talladega races in a row. The playing field is more level in superspeedway racing than it is on most tracks.
When it comes to recent success, Ryan Blaney is your guy. He followed up his photo finish 2019 playoff win with yet another victory that was close as they come. Blaney’s back-to-back performances follow in the footsteps of Penske teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. These two top drivers combined for six wins in an eight-race stretch from 2014-2018. Although Logano has remained competitive here since his last win in 2018, Keselowski’s Talladega days have been rougher. After winning the 2017 playoff race, Brad finished no better than 13th in five races. Talladega gives us a great opportunity to dig deeper into the driver pool and find teams that have managed to produce in recent years.
The Playoff Picture
Kurt Busch is one of few playoff drivers who get the luxury of running Talladega on house money. He squeezed his way into the Round of 12 after entering the Las Vegas race as the unenviable twelfth man. For all intents and purposes, Busch faced three win-and-in races this round and stuck the landing ASAP. His automatic bid for the Round of 8 put the squeeze on a lot of teams sitting around that cut line. Realistically speaking, anyone from Brad Keselowski on down can really hurt their chances to survive the cut by getting tangled up in The Big One this weekend. On the flip side, a win will reverse the misfortune of someone sitting below the line like Aric Almirola. You better believe these guys will find themselves in the mix Sunday evening.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
Now THIS is an opening odds board with Talladega’s name all over it. Every driver was priced at 10/1 or higher. That probably has something to do with just about everyone sitting on several years of Cup Series experience having a legitimate chance of winning here. Defending Talladega champion Ryan Blaney sits on top, but it’s a crowded top nonetheless. Success is certainly fickle at the superspeedway, but could he make it three in a row? His Penske teammates justly got some love too, considering that Keselowski and Logano are no strangers to ‘Dega’s victory lane.
***All Talladega wagers this weekend are 1/2 unit plays***
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. -115 vs. William Byron
Mr. Excitement is commonly known as a superspeedway specialist. This perception has something to do with him winning his first Cup Series race at Talladega in his fifth full season. It was galvanized when he won at Daytona – the circuit’s other superspeedway – less than two months later. These may be the only two wins in Ricky’s eight-year career, but he’s done more than that to earn this reputation. He has led 121 laps at Daytona and 89 at Talladega; both more than at any other track. Stenhouse’s eight Top 10s in thirteen races here is his best ratio of such finishes. Oddly enough, six Top 10s in 15 Bristol contests is by far his second-best venue in this regard.
2020 GEICO 500 at Talladega – BetCrushers.com – June 18, 2020
That was part of my feature on Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. prior to the 2020 GEICO 500. It sums up Ricky’s superspeedway reputation nicely. But there have been two SS competitions since then – that race and the Coke Zero Sugar 500. He busted out of the August Daytona race with just nine laps to go. As for the GEICO 500, Stenhouse jammed his way to the finish line just thousandths of a second behind Ryan Blaney and ahead of the spinning Aric Almirola.
A Pair With Nothing to Lose
This weekend is different for the simple fact that it’s playoff racing at Talladega. Neither of these matchup opponents are alive for the Championship, so throw any postseason pressure out the window. William Byron’s 5th at Darlington started the Round of 16 off nicely, building on his Daytona win that locked the bubble driver into the playoffs. Unfortunately, things took a major turn for the worse since then and Byron was bounced from contention after Kurt took the crown in Vegas.
It has also been ugly lately for Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., who failed to finish in the Top 10 since Dover. When Byron crossed the finish line first at Daytona, Stenhouse was already in spectator mode after a rare superspeedway DNF. Nonetheless, five DNFs in 31 SS races is still a strong ratio. I’ll grant Willy B an edge when it comes to current form, though I don’t know how much that actually matters at Talladega. Here’s the bottom line for me: Stenhouse has outraced Byron in four out of five Cup races here, with the narrowest margin of victory for Ricky being nine positions. If Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is still on the track at mile 500, I expect him to be solidly ahead of William Byron. Don’t fall for laying big favorites on such a volatile track, so stay away if this inflates to -130 or steeper.
Kurt Busch -106 vs. Kyle Busch
The Brothers’ War continues. Kurt had the last laugh by winning in their home town last weekend – something that must stick in Kyle’s craw. Less than a week ago, big brother sat barely above the cut line and little brother had a little more cushion. Now Kyle is dangerously close to the line while Kurt earned his free pass to the Round of 8. Will Kurt lay back and take it easy this weekend? That is my lone hesitation with backing him on Sunday. No playoff driver can afford to take any week off, especially with the major volatility looming over the playoff racing atmosphere at Talladega Superspeedway.
Both Busches have their pros and cons here. Kurt’s 9 DNFs in 39 career ‘Dega races is a bit concerning, especially given that accidents took him out in the 2017 & 2019 playoff races. He was in the mix late in both affairs before getting caught up in the inevitable multi-car pileup. Kyle was not immune to the 2017 incident, finishing two positions behind his brother that evening. Aside from those two accidents, Kurt Busch is very competitive at Talladega. The Outlaw finished 14th or better in ten of the last twelve races here, including eight Top 10s. Kyle has experienced bigger swings in that same period with just five finishes of 13th or better.
Will Consistency Get the Cash?
Our regular readers know how much I appreciate the consistency that Kurt Busch brings at a number of tracks. Talladega is one of those venues, despite the higher overall volatility. Kyle’s career output here (30 races / 6 DNF / 15 T20 / 8 T10) is a noticeable step or two behind Kurt’s (39 races / 9 DNF / 27 T20 / 21 T10). In fact, you have to go all the way back to Kyle Busch’s 11th place finish in 2015 to find the last time he’s even sniffed a Top 10 finish here during the postseason. Kurt has not been exceptional, but he did outrace his younger brother in five of the last six fall races. If you think that the playoff racing atmosphere at Talladega isn’t a significant factor, consider that Kurt has topped Kyle eight times in the last eleven overall here. Kurt Busch checks several boxes for me in this matchup, making him a play as a small -106 dog to Kyle. If this price moves away from Kurt, -120 or better is still worth a bet.
Aric Almirola +100 Top 10
Let’s get straight to the point with Aric Almirola. AA has now racked up eight straight Top 10 finishes at Talladega, crowned by his 2018 playoff win. Since jumping into the #10 Stewart-Haas Mustang, Almirola has been money here. In addition to his win, Aric finished 4th in the 2019 playoff race then 3rd back in June. He didn’t get any style points for a backward finish a few months ago, but it still got the money in our matchup play against Clint Bowyer. After all, I called him “the most interesting driver in Sunday’s field” back in June.
What is interesting to note about AA’s recent Talladega success is his approach to the race. Except for the 2018 win, Aric has not placed in the Top 10 of any stage finishes. Part of this has to do with his poor starting positions before 2018 (he starts 11th on Sunday) and his strategy in these dangerous superspeedway contests. He is a master of biding his time and finding a way to be there when it counts. Don’t sleep on the fact that his crew chief Mike Bugarewicz and the #10 team have helped elevate Aric’s level of performance in 2020. AA faces elimination at the Roval if he cannot produce a Top 5 this weekend. Barring disaster, this is a great spot for this cool customer to pick up much-needed points. I’ve confidently bet Aric Almirola at even money to finish in the Top 10 Sunday, extending his streak to nine in a row. This bet is good down to -115 before the value tails off.
Roval or Bust!
After Sunday’s intense playoff racing at Talladega comes the technical hybrid course at the Charlotte Roval. Four drivers’ postseason hopes will be crushed after next weekend, and I’ll have you ready to bet these challenging races. Be sure not to miss any of our NFL betting features or NASCAR handicaps through the end of the season! Connect with us on Twitter or subscribe below to receive email alerts:
