ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills +110
New England Patriots +145
New York Jets +750
Miami Dolphins +850
For the first time in eternity the New England Patriots are not favored to win the AFC East. You don’t have to be a football aficionado to understand why that is as GOAT Tom Brady has taken his talents to Clearwater Beach, breaking up the Belichik and Brady dynasty that has owned the league for the better part of the last two decades. The Buffalo Bills are a trendy topic in the offseason and on paper look like they could finally dethrone their nemsis. What should be equally as interesting is where the Jets and Dolphins land, respectively. The Dolphins are revamped and trying to build something big, and the Jets are at an interesting crossroads with head coach Adam Gase and quarterback Sam Darnold. There is some parity now in the AFC East, something that should make things a lot more exciting down the stretch.
Buffalo Bills
2019 Record – 10-6
2019 Record Against the Spread – 9-5-2
There is a lot of buzz in Western New York as the Bills who are fresh off of an exciting Wild Card run have seemingly added to their roster and have more experience from their young core of players. Josh Allen enters the season with a lot of eyes on him as he hopes to capitalize on his strengths while improving in areas where he struggled, particularly tossing the deep ball. Head coach Sean McDermott has clearly changed the culture in Buffalo and anything short of winning the division will likely be seen as a disappoint. Perhaps the biggest question for this team entering the season will be how they handle being the favorite?
If you happened to catch the late season nationally televised Bills games you probably noticed that the Bills offense looked phenomenal at times, and downright inept at other times. That can be traced back to the previously mentioned quarterback Josh Allen. He made a lot of “wow” plays during their playoff run, some great, some head-scratchingly poor. By all accounts Allen has looked terrific in camp, but we all know nothing matters until the score counts and the defense is hitting you. The big splash of the Bills offseason was trading to acquire WR Stefon Diggs from the Vikings in hopes he will provide the true number one threat to keep defenses on their heels. Tagging him together with the underrated John Brown and Cole Beasley in the slot certainly looks nice on paper, so let’s see if they can translate that power on gameday into production. The offensive line is mostly intact from a season ago and while not spectacular, should be strong enough to power this offense accordingly. The team used an early draft pick on running back Zack Moss to compliment the very productive rookie from 2019 Devin Singletary. Other than the obvious addition of Diggs, how much they can get from 2nd year man Dawson Knox and their committee of tight ends could determine how much this offense can improve.
Flipping it over, the defense figures to be powerful again as they kept their core intact and shuffled some of the pieces around across the board. The starting unit looks nice, but there isn’t a ton of depth at the linebacker position or opposite All-Pro cornerback Tre White on the corner so they’ll need to stay healthy or they could fall from a top five type defense to a bottom half of the league squad. Some moves were made in free agency and in the draft using their top pick on defensive end AJ Epenesa in hopes they can control the edges and get pressure on quarterbacks at a higher clip than a year ago. If you want to watch a guy that could take a huge leap in his third season running the defense, take a peak at ILB Tremaine Edmunds who is poised to become a Pro Bowler in 2020. For the first time in a while though, it could be the offense that gets the headlines, despite another good defensive roster in Buffalo. Is it enough to unseat the perennial East champs?
2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 5th (.525)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -135, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-6
If you’re simply studying rosters you might get aggressive and pencil this Buffalo team in for 11 wins. The schedules across the AFC East are the hardest in the league so we’re going to back it off a game and go with a projected 10-6 mark. Beginning the season it looks like the team will be favored in about 9 or 10 games, so 10-6 seems to be a good starting spot until we see how this team does with a target on it.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
This team is good, but not yet great and they’ll be learning along the way. It’s very easy to picture this group playing in a lot of close games. Knowing that, you’ll want to evaluate taking the points if the numbers are right whichever direction the favorite is. Additionally, teasing down to near pick em’s or up to having the Bills getting more than a touchdown would be a nice play.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Josh Allen (QB)
Stefon Diggs will clearly get some love in FF and rightly so. There may not be enough targets to go around between Brown, Beasley and the running backs to really rely on him week in and week out when it all shakes out. Devin Singletary should have some nice games as well, though you’ll have the same volume concerns as Zack Moss should see some touches too. Look back and you’ll see that in most formats Josh Allen actually finished as a top 7 fantasy quarterback last year because he’s a great runner and can find the endzone with his legs as well as his arm. With the addition of Diggs, there is no reason Allen can’t be a top 5 fantasy quarterback this year and outperform some of the huge names at the position around the league.
Miami Dolphins
2019 Record – 5-11
2019 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
So who will get the ball on offense during the 2020 season, the feisty veteran Fitzpatrick or the flashy rookie Tagovailoa? Simply put, the answer is probably both, at some point during the year. Fitzpatrick can likely perform adequately if the revamped offensive line struggles early, whereas that could be an issue for Tua. Just how well that line gels will be a big key to the overall progress of this offense. A couple of underrated running backs will take over the backfield in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, a little bit of a thunder and lightning type duo. Davante Parker came into his own in the second half of the season and looks like a legitimate top target in the league. Make no mistake, this isn’t the 1999 Rams offense, but overall they should be able to move the ball enough to stay competitive.
The biggest additions came on the defensive side of the ball, which was desperately needed as this team was torched in both the run and passing game last season. The return from injury of players like Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain with the addition of Byron Jones sets this secondary up to be really complete. Free agents Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson will be depended on to deliver a pass rush that needed a big upgrade. The defensive line is a bit of a question mark as there is some young talent there including last year’s first round selection Christian Wilkins, however there isn’t a lot of proven production. Overall, this team won’t be bullied this year and we expect some noticeable improvement. As is often the case, what happens at the quarterback position will have a large impact on how far this team can go.
2020 Strength of Schedule – 3rd (.529)
Team Win Total Odds – 6 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-9
This team scraped together wins miraculously with one of the least talented NFL rosters there has been in a long time. It’s very reasonable to think they’ll win at least two more games now that they’ve added some quality players across the board. Call us crazy, this team could be in a fight for the wild card if the quarterbacks can get the job done.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
It will take a little while for the public and the sportsbooks to catch up to the Dolphins. There’s a good possibility there will be a lot of value in taking them if they’re catching a lot of points. Sometimes you have to be willing to give “bad” teams a shot against the spread.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Davante Parker (WR)
As we mentioned, Davante Parker came on big through the 2020 campaign as it seemed like the light-bulb finally went on for him. There is some uncertainty with the quarterback play, yet he figures to get some good target volume and produce either way.
New England Patriots
2019 Record – 12-4
2019 Record Against the Spread – 8-7-1
How much do you think Bill Belichik is loving not being the prohibitive favorite in the division? Our guess is he’s as hyped about somewhat flying under the radar than he’s ever been even with some of the stacked teams he’s had in the past. Let’s simplify New England’s season into two big buckets: Can Cam Newton provide the spark and change in offense to make up from the departure of Tom Brady? And will this defense that was elite in 2019 be able to duplicate that performance having lost some key contributors?
We’ll dive into Cam Newton in just a minute after we take a look at the rest of the offensive lineup. You’ll notice most of the cast is back with some potential improvement through the draft at tight end and some offensive line help. A player NE really needs to step up is second year wideout N’Keal Harry who has the raw talent to make big plays, something that was lacking in 2019. Edelman and Sanu will put in their usual hard-hat performances, it’s the other players on this offense that need to come up big, including the running backs. Circling back to Cam Newton, it seems impossible to figure out what this partnership is going to do for the Pats? The first key is finding out if Newton is fully healthy, something he clearly has not been before shutting it down last year. The team claims that he is so the second key will be can he partner with Belichik and regain his form to keep this team in the upper echelon in the AFC? We’ll give this coach and quarterback the benefit of the doubt, but make no mistake about it, we’ll be observing early in the season before trying to handicap the Patriots.
If any team can piece together a defense with rotating parts we know it’s this New England Patriots team. Remember when Troy Brown moved to DB and they still played well in the early 2000’s? The secondary is the base of this defense and they’ll need to play well as the front seven can only be looked at as a question mark. There are some quality contributors in that group, however there certainly aren’t any huge talents jumping out at us. This unit was the best in the league a year ago, can they remain a top five top squad or will there be a falloff?
2020 Strength of Schedule – 1st (.537)
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -120, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-6
The champ is the champ until they are dethroned so don’t put too much dirt on the coffin that is the New England Patriots. It may take a few games to adjust to not having Tom Terrific and this won’t one of those 13-3 campaigns. How does 10-6 sound?
Possible to Wagers To Play – To Be Determined
It’s not often we go full “pass” with a team, but tread carefully with this group until we see how the post-Brady era is developing. There will be plenty of time later in the season once you have a pulse of this group down a little bit better.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Cam Newton (QB)
Not a lot to get excited about unlike previous seasons in New England although everyone has to be at least a little intrigued with Cam Newton. This could be the season where Julian Edelman finally starts tailing off, although in a PPR format you have to think he’s still a legitimate play.
New York Jets
2019 Record – 7-9
2019 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
The Jets did some shuffling in the offseason and hope to build on what was an up and down campaign a year ago. Having their young signal caller miss a month of the season along with the loss of linebacker C.J. Mosley proved too much for them to overcome and the offseason had its own ups and downs including the departure of All-Pro safety Jamal Adams. The team did receive a serious bounty in return which bodes well moving forward, it’s just hard to see how that will help them this year.
One of the big tasks the Jets undertook in the offseason was trying to make changes in an offensive line that struggled badly at times. The team is plugging in some different pieces, however the jury is out on whether or not they’ll actually be improved in that department. The running back room can help the cause as signs are positive in Jet camp that Le’Veon Bell is in shape and motivated to have a bounce back season. Frank Gore will join him in the backfield for what seems like his 30th season, which is truthfully his 3rd AFC East team in the last 3 years. The wide receiving group is pedestrian, although youngster Denzel Mims could give them the explosive boost they’re needing. Should Breshad Perriman develop some chemistry in the office he could also help target magnet Jamison Crowder out. That only leaves a discussion about quarterback Sam Darnold. If the Jets don’t put together a nice season by whatever measurable ownership feels is appropriate, the Darnold/Gase tandem won’t last past this season. Darnold is likely there to stay and the team is ready for him to be the face of the franchise and leader they expected when drafting him.
Over the past handful of years the Jets have always packed a punch on defense, even during seasons where they weren’t particularly relevant. C.J. Mosley opting out of the season is a monstrous hit to this team and the mentioned trade of Jamal Adams weakens the secondary. The team is hopeful second year man Quinnen Williams can elevate his game on the interior of the defensive line and be a leader amongst some unproven players.
2020 Strength of Schedule – 2nd (.533)
Team Win Total Odds – 7 (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-9
There seems to be some slight debate with the Jets this year as some pundits believe they can make a nice leap, while others believe this team is below mediocre. A tough schedule doesn’t help the cause and they seem to have the makings of a .500 ballclub at best in our humble opinion.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under – Over totals
If the future player props on Sam Darnold are correct, the Jets are going to increase their scoring this season. It does appear that they are in a position offensively to be more consistent if Darnold can stay on the field. Defensively, you probably read that we’re thinking this group is going to struggle. If both of those things happen, you might be able to play those fun over bets early in the season with Gang Green.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Le’Veon Bell (RB)
We’re watching Le’Veon Bell for sure, but from the sidelines again. He could end up being an RB1, but all it takes is a short memory of last season to scare us away.
