It is often said that invention is the mother of necessity. NASCAR responded to the COVID curveball by scheduling mid-week races and weekend doubleheaders. With just six races to go before the playoffs, things look positive for completing the 2020 Cup season. This weekend, Michigan International Speedway hosts the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Saturday and the Consumers Energy 400 on Sunday. The BetCrushers motto may be “Don’t Gamble With Your Wagers”, but you know we’re ready to double down on the NASCAR action at Michigan!
The Deuce Was Loose in New Hampshire
From a race fan perspective, last weekend’s contest at New Hampshire was phenomenal. There was action from start to finish, although some could feel negatively because Brad Keselowski ran away with it uncontested. We didn’t get the multitude of cautions that yield tense restarts, but that was okay in my book (for reasons I’ll touch on later). Kyle Busch fired the first round of fireworks on the Magic Mile after slamming the wall and existing the race first. With him out early, it looked to be a race locked down by the Penske Fords and 2017 winner Denny Hamlin.
As afternoon transitioned into evening, the track started to change and Blaney lost the edge he had in Stage 1. Teams experimented with several pit strategies as the race went on – not only when they hit pit road, but what they did when they were there. A prime example is Brad Keselowski staying on the track with his original tires longer than anyone else. Combined with his fast car, this strategy paid off as he improved his position in the lead pack. It eventually played a part in seeing the #2 Mustang lead 184 of the 301 laps. As NASCAR.com termed their race recap, it was “Crustacean or Bust for Brad Keselowski.”
Neither of the two early favorites to win the race sealed the deal. Denny Hamlin managed a runner-up finish and Kevin Harvick worked his way back to 5th via his team’s strategy. Hamlin’s Stage 1 win evened the playoff point race with Harvick, though Denny holds the tiebreaker advantage having won one more race with just six to go before the postseason. Brad’s New Hampshire win is his third on the season, propelling him into their rear view mirror. Keselowski is now only 6 playoff points behind those two. The race for the 2020 NASCAR Cup Championship is undoubtedly heating up.
More Winners on the Card
Let’s get straight to the point so we can dig into Michigan. Our New Hampshire betting card was short with just two plays for the second week in a row. That’s not a bad thing when it yields another 2-0 result. The final long push of green flag racing extended Aric Almirola’s lead to five seconds over his foe Chase Elliott in our sole matchup play. Position two called for Martin Truex, Jr. to finish in the Top 5, which he did comfortably. MTJ persevered through an early pit penalty to push his way back to the front, where he settled in nicely for a convincing 3rd place finish.
The Michigan Double Down
Fresh off of a dominant win, Brad Keselowski heads back to his home state of Michigan for a NASCAR weekend doubleheader. These races will be shortened to 312 miles to accommodate the compressed schedule. Hey, it’s the reality of things right now and kudos to NASCAR for pulling off an entire season after the long layoff. Last month’s Pocono Double gave us somewhat of a feel for how teams adapt to this reduced-mileage format. If there is any broad-brushed statement I drew from Pocono, it’s that the well managed teams who have a good car for the 400s will be competitive in the shorter races. Crew chief, engineer, and driver must be in sync to be good in the unusual format on both days.
This 50-plus year old track is considered the sister track of Auto Club Speedway in California. The weird part about this family reference is that Michigan International Speedway is 26 years older than Auto Club, but I digress. These are the only 2-mile intermediate tracks on the Cup Series circuit, with MIS being the steeper banked of the two. A 2012 repave also makes it much smoother than the notoriously-rough Auto Club. Michigan matches tracks like Texas and Kentucky in their surface smoothness, more so than California. Perhaps this is why Clint Bowyer – who hates repaves – has struggled to finish in the Top 20 in seven of the last nine races here? It makes his 2018 FireKeepers Casino victory just that much more of a head scratcher.
The Obligatory Kevin Harvick Section
A prime example of a driver being on the same page with his team is Kevin Harvick, who had Top 5 finishes in all six of the doubleheader races this season. This includes wins at Pocono and at Darlington in the first race back from the hiatus. Michigan is a totally different track from Darlington, Charlotte, and Pocono though. All four tracks are notably different from one another, and The Closer has things on lock here too. If you want to back him this weekend, you better be prepared to pay a premium to do so. It won’t help that he’s the last Cup Series winner at this track.
Like last week at New Hampshire, Michigan has been a honey hole for Harvick. Kevin ran off four straight runner-ups in the 2013 & 2014 seasons before ending his eight-year victory drought here in 2018. He rebounded nicely from a 7th place finish in the 2019 FireKeepers Casino 400 to win in August. It was a fully in-sync team effort, perfectly executing a fuel mileage strategy to pull away for the checkered flag. This #4 Stewart-Haas team is fast and smart, and they haven’t finished outside of the Top 5 this season since Pocono.
Who to Keep an Eye On
Kyle Busch has placed 6th or better in the last four Michigan races. Considering that he has three straight Top 3 finishes at the other 2-mile track, Auto Club Speedway, you could say that the 2019 Cup Champion digs this layout. He’s been more bust than boom this season since Atlanta, so is he untouchable at this point? Most of us participating in any market-based endeavor are looking for buy low scenarios. Could this be one of them? 2011 was the last year that Kyle last won at Michigan and he may feel like it’s been that long since he last won a Cup race altogether.
Your defending FireKeepers Casino 400 champion, Joey Logano offers a sneaky-good resume at Michigan. Not only did he hold off our man Kurt Busch in an overtime sprint, Logano crushed the race by leading 163 of the 203 laps. He’s a 3X Michigan winner (2013, 2016, 2019) who should be due for a fourth in…2022? As for consistency, Joey finished outside the Top 10 only twice in 14 races while driving the #22 Penske Ford.
One thing that should not go unnoticed is that Logano’s promising season fell on tougher times after the restart. His two wins in the first four races this year set a torrid pace that makes the current stretch seem disappointing. In fact, things have not gone much better for Joey Logano since the restart than they have for Kyle Busch. I must say that he’s produced some strong runs recently, notwithstanding the tire blowout that knocked him out at Kansas. This could be a good spot to boost his confidence for the upcoming playoffs.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
Everyone should have correctly guessed who the opening favorite for Saturday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 is. If you didn’t know before reading The Obligatory Kevin Harvick Section, you surely do now. He and playoff points leader Denny Hamlin are rightfully positioned at the top. 2019 race winner Joey Logano is right on his heels, with Chase Elliott and teammate Brad Keselowski behind him. I’m all ears for a good argument why Chase is up there with these guys. Especially considering that he is priced cheaper than MTJ, who has been much closer to winning at Michigan and is in better form.
As a handicapper, I have been leery of getting in too deep on the encore races this season. One of my goals is to beat the market more consistently than not. NASCAR betting has produced significantly positive returns for us, but I am almost as happy with beating the closing lines at a healthy clip. The latter has been much more difficult to accomplish in the encore races this season. Act two at Darlington, Charlotte, and Pocono had much less meat on the bone than for the first runs. I will re-evaluate for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 with a lighter unit size and likely just one position. A lot of unknowns become known after Saturday’s race and the line typically reflects it. Therefore, the following positions are for Saturday’s FireKeepers Casino 400:
Martin Truex, Jr. -115 vs. Kyle Busch
After Truex met my expectations last weekend at New Hampshire, I have no problems jumping back on the #19 Toyota. Of course, this isn’t the only reason why MTJ is playable in Saturday’s Michigan race. His opponent, Kyle Busch has run into quite a bit of trouble in recent weeks – some of which has been unfortunate and some is attributable to unforced errors. To Kyle’s credit, we’ve seen him drive out of some sticky spots as well. I am discounting Busch’s “buy low” potential this week by playing against him in this matchup. Another option is to lay him to finish outside the Top 5, though I advise against laying too much juice. After all, Kyle can jump up and bite when you least expect it.
Instead, I’ll take the opportunity to back Truex at a track where he is a prime Top 5 candidate. Finding consistency at Michigan International Speedway is not the easiest thing outside of Kevin Harvick or even Joey Logano. Other elite and second-tier drivers have enough blemishes sprinkled amongst their resumes to remind us that almost nobody should be considered a lock for a top finish here. MTJ is a prime example of this when you consider he has good years at Michigan and he has mediocre ones.
Why the Matchup Makes Sense
MTJ posted four Top 3 finishes in the six Michigan races run in 2015, 2017, & 2019. The two “outliers” were 4th & 6th. Not bad. The downside is that he fell outside the Top 10 in the 2016 & 2018 races. Another reason why I like this matchup position is that even in those lackluster years, Truex still beat out Busch in one of the four contests. Martin swept his counterpart in all six races during those three primo seasons. Granted, he edged Kyle one by only one or two positions in three of them. Our friend @NASCARstyleodds had a quick winner going against Kyle last week, but I can’t reasonably expect that again considering how hard it is to bust Busch out of a race.
The kicker in this matchup is how good MTJ has been since the Indy debacle. In addition to getting wiped out by Kyle at Texas, Martin delivered a runner up and a pair of 3rd place finishes. Also consider how he started from the rear last August and finished 4th, beating out Kyle by two positions. He pulled off a similar comeback last week at New Hampshire by overcoming a loose tire penalty to finish 3rd comfortably. Despite my position, I will never underestimate Kyle Busch’s determination to get back to the winner’s circle. He will scratch and claw to the finish. MTJ is dialed in right now and has proven to be a contender in recent years at Michigan, which is why I like him to outrace teammate Kyle Busch.
Kurt Busch +105 to Top 10
I’ll start by saying that Michigan is not a prototypical Top 10 spot for Kurt. By that, I mean a track where he posted such finishes in five of the last six (Kansas) or even seven times in a row (Texas). This is a little more of a “dangerous” Top 10 position to take with Busch. The big positive is that he’s done it here in three of the last four contests. The negative is just missing the Top 10 in the three before that (12th, 12th, & 11th) and finishing a disappointing 23rd last fall.
Kurt Busch has the distinction of winning a Michigan Cup race in a Ford, Dodge, and Chevrolet. Mother Nature assisted his last victory here by cutting the race short, but that doesn’t take anything away from the W. The flip side to Busch’s good fortune in 2015 was him running out of fuel on the final lap last August. He was not alone, however, as Logano, Keselowski, and Blaney suffered the same fate. We’ll see how pit strategy and late cautions – or lack thereof – affect this weekend’s races.
Price is Key
Kurt Busch sits tenth on the Top 10 odds board at BetRivers as of Wednesday evening. The large gap between him at +105 and Aric Almirola at -195 implies that there is a strong group of nine who they’ve pegged as the strongest contenders in the race. This is consistent with the odds to win the race, so I don’t see any pricing discrepancies between those two markets. That said, I really think this book is undervaluing Kurt’s ability to finish in the Top 10 on Saturday. Again, consistency is tough to find here – even with the top dogs.
Since four straight finishes in the 10th-12th range in 2016 & 2017, the 3X Michigan winner has comfortably cracked the Top 10 three times in the last two years. Running out of fuel last August was a blemish to his highly-desired consistency. Kurt has experienced plenty of highs and lows on this 2-mile track, though his level of performance appears to have plateaued during his Stewart-Haas and Chip Ganassi tenures. Enough so to where I consider this to be on the list of Busch’s Top 10 tracks. Consider this in conclusion: Kurt has been in the Top 5 in six of the last eight stages at Michigan, including all four Stage 2s. The Outlaw has been a cash cow in these spots over the last couple years, and I put him on a 60% chance of converting Saturday.
Heading into Uncharted Waters
It’s been a season full of firsts and next weekend poses yet another one. Daytona’s road course hosts the mid-August “break” between double-header weekends. Handicappers will be flying blind on the Florida beaches, but we’ll dig in and try to find an advantageous position or two. Stay connected with us on Twitter and be sure to visit our NASCAR page when the odds drop to catch our early plays. Or subscribe below to have our handicaps delivered straight to your inbox:
