The NASCAR Cup Series returns to a familiar track at Dover’s Monster Mile this weekend. I am also back after a long road trip of my own through the heart of stock car racing. While I was away, Chase Elliott took down NASCAR’s inaugural race on the Daytona Road Course last weekend. Daytona’s twists and turns were a big change of pace in between the four Cup races at Michigan and Dover.
We hit the pause button on race handicapping after the Michigan doubleheader two weeks ago. The front end of the double produced a solid 2-0 with both a matchup and a Top 10 win. Martin Truex, Jr. stayed focused on another Top 3 performance, while Kurt seemingly willed his way to a 10th place finish. That’s old news, though. Now it’s all about finding winners at Dover’s Monster Mile with only three Cup Series races left in the regular season.
Three Races to Go
The playoff hunt is under intense pressure with just three regular-season races to go. Kevin Harvick’s Michigan sweep recaptured the season and playoff points leads over Denny Hamlin. Chase Elliott’s fresh win jumped him solidly into fourth place on both lists. That means ten postseason berths are locked up by race winners and six highly-contested slots are up for grabs. And we know that no less than three playoff drivers will be winless. While guys like Aric Almirola and the Busch brothers are in decent shape with three races to go, drivers lingering around the cut line like Clint Bowyer, Matty D, William Byron, Jimmie Johnson, and Erik Jones are in precarious positions heading into Dover.
Crushing the Monster Mile
It will be a bittersweet weekend for Dover International Speedway race enthusiasts. After 50 years of hosting at least two NASCAR races a year, officials decided to move one of the two Dover weekends to Nashville Speedway in 2021. Less is more, they say. This weekend’s races feature 311 laps around the Monster Mile on Saturday and Sunday. It may be unconventional, but this weekend doubleheader format used at Pocono, Michigan, and Dover has enabled NASCAR to squeeze in a full season after COVID’s interruption. Props to them.
Dover’s one-mile track is one of NASCAR’s classic venues that has survived the test of time. Improvements throughout the years like concrete resurfacing in 1995 and new garages in 2019 are part of its timelessness. The high-banked turns on the symmetrical Monster Mile differentiate it from other mile tracks at New Hampshire and Phoenix. New Hampshire’s asphalt mile has about half the banking, while Phoenix’s funky configuration has no comparison. Dover is a track all its own.
Kyle Larson scored a big win here in Round 2 of the 2019 playoffs, though we won’t see him behind the wheel this weekend. Martin Truex, Jr. is your defending Dover champion and comes into the weekend looking as good as ever. He can make a strong case for a postseason surge by scoring more playoff points with a win. This track has rewarded the cream of the crop, as Elliott, Harvick, Busch, Johnson, and Kenseth found their way to victory lane here in recent years.
JJ’s Farewell Tour
When it comes to winning on Dover’s Monster Mile, look no further than Jimmie Johnson. The 7x NASCAR Cup Champion has an amazing eleven Dover victories, the last of which came in 2017. JJ has won here more than any other track at the Cup level. He’s led 3,110 laps and has 25 Top 10 finishes in 36 races. Hell, the guy won both Dover races in his 2002 rookie season! That was one of three back-to-back victories for the #48 on the mile.
Jimmie ended a Top 10 drought last weekend that started all the way back at Homestead. His 4th place finish on the Daytona Road Course was his first Top 10 in ten races and first Top 5 since Bristol. Time is running out for JJ to make the playoffs and Dover’s Monster Mile may be his best opportunity to leapfrog his way into the mix. It’s either here or Daytona after all. Johnson’s 2017 win here was seen by some as “fortunate”, though he was in position all day and capitalized on a sloppy finish.
The #48 team’s effectiveness has waned here since the 2018 season. This should not be a huge surprise considering JJ is at the end of a very long NASCAR career. The loss of longtime crew chief Chad Knaus before the 2019 season did not help matters and the turnover at that position mid-season added to Jimmie’s challenges. New crew chief Cliff Daniels made strategy moves on Sunday to gain their Chevy solid track position that JJ held onto. Johnson and his crew need to make similar big moves this weekend and desperation can lead to interesting results. I don’t doubt for a minute that the #48 will pull out all the stops at Dover, but can you bet on it? @NASCARstyleodds seems to think so, and I concur with his approach to backing Jimmie on Saturday. We’ll ride shotgun with Paul on that play.
MTJ Rounding Into Form
Prior to Sunday’s Daytona road course race, MTJ rattled off four straight 3rd place finishes. That streak came on the heels of being taken out by teammate Kyle Busch at Texas after a huge runner-up at Kentucky. The Daytona Road Course threw a curveball at the field without any practice, yet the #19 team overcame a speeding penalty to place 3rd for the fifth Cup race in a row. Now Truex returns to the scene of some quirky personal accomplishments…
…he weaved through traffic from the back of the field to win a Monday race at Dover International Speedway for the second time in his Cup career. Truex won his first career NASCAR Cup race on June 4, 2007, at Dover and 12 years later used another Sunday rainout to take the checkered flag.
AP; May 6, 2019 – Martin Truex Jr. wins 2nd career Monday NASCAR race at Dover
Truex’s current surge rolled through tracks where he has thrived in recent years. Add Dover to that list. MTJ has ten Top 10 finishes and two wins in the last twelve Dover races. The bar is much higher for Cup Champions, and Martin’s performances on the Monster Mile back up this status. I’ll go out on a limb and say that six Top 5 finishes in the seven races since his 2016 win is damn good. If there is anything overly negative about Truex this weekend, it is his price.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
The Dover opener was more polarizing than for most races. The Closer and MTJ are firmly implanted as favorites, with Chase and Denny close behind offering odds better than 5/1. But the bulk of other top-tier drivers like Keselowski, Logano, Blaney, and Kyle Busch are above 10/1. It must be a disastrous season for Kyle if he’s nowhere near the top tier of the board here. If you’re hunting big prices on quality drivers, look no further than Saturday.
Chase Elliott +100 Top 5
Finding good prices is one key to long-term handicapping success. When it comes to Chase Elliott, don’t expect to find any bargain basement numbers on him this weekend unless you’re matching him up against the heavy hitters. Chase’s win last week was impressive, especially as his third straight Cup Series road course victory. That W came in a spot where he needed to capitalize on the opportunity. And so he did as the race co-favorite. Chase finds himself in an identical position at Dover.
I went over my philosophy for these condensed weekends in the Michigan handicap, which is to hit the Saturday race like usual and play Sunday more conservatively. If Chase runs in the lead pack as I suspect, his Sunday price surely won’t be any more favorable. Same thing goes if unexpected disaster strikes like it did last fall. The only way I can imagine his odds going higher in the encore is if he lays an egg on Saturday.
The Case for Chase
At +100, my question is whether Elliott has a 60% chance or better to finish in the Top 5. Last week’s win on a favorable track style tells me that he’s in a good mindset to make a strong run this weekend. The downside to Chase’s current form is his lack of Top 5 finishes prior to the Daytona Road Course – seven, to be exact. Although the #9 has been ho-hum since Pocono, Elliott has rattled off four straight Top 10s. I’ll even argue that his performances in the three races at New Hampshire and Michigan were in line with or slightly better than expectations.
My expectations for the Monster Mile are quite high like last year. Chase was fresh off of a win at the Charlotte Roval and was primed to defend his 2018 win when engine failure had the last laugh. Although it was an eerie sign of the ongoing Hendrick Motorsports state of affairs, I can’t hold that against him. Dover is an animal of its own and Elliott spoke its language at an early age. Since taking on this track in 2016, he has six Top 5 finishes in eight races. Chase Elliott knows how to race Dover’s Monster Mile, and I’ll back him at a chalky +100 to finish Top 5 on Saturday.
Hitching My Wagon to Clint Bowyer
Most of our regular NASCAR handicapping audience knows my love/hate relationship with Clint Bowyer. Then there’s my wife’s mentions of the #14 shooting sparks and/or flames from underneath. So no wonder it’s been a long time since I’ve played on or against him. Fortunately, this is a spot where I have Clint’s name circled and underlined. Not that I anticipate Bowyer breaking his Dover maiden this weekend but he is a surprisingly good fit for the Monster Mile.
Clint Bowyer +130 Top 10
Clint Bowyer showed Kurt Busch-like consistency at Dover when he rattled off nine straight Top 10s from 2011-2015. He hit a rough patch as he transitioned to Stewart-Haas Racing in 2017, flopping in June’s AAA 400. Since then, Clint delivered four Top 10 finishes in the last five Dover Cup races. Furthermore, he’s been in the Top 10 in eight of the last ten stages, including in all five Stage 2s. His four strong finishes came off of a starting position no better than 10th. Bowyer starts Saturday’s race in the 4th position.
Even if the #14 Mustang is primed for Dover’s Monster Mile, there is pause for concern with his current form. Before his 6th last weekend at Daytona, Bowyer missed the Top 10 in seven straight races. Perhaps I am justifying my position by saying that he is customarily hit-or-miss on most of those tracks anyways. Then again, Bowyer is reliable enough at this one-of-a-kind track to be a 50/50 shot to sneak into the Top 10 with a solid return of +130.
Clint Bowyer -115 vs. W. Byron
Don’t have access to a Top 10 market? Stack him up against a less-accomplished Dover racer like William Byron. Sure, Byron has outraced Bowyer in nine of the last thirteen contests this year. And he’s beat out Clint twice in the four Dover Cup races he’s run. Here’s where I discount Bowyer’s “blowout” 35th place finish in the 2018 playoffs. Although that’s the type of unfortunate finish that my wife keeps warning me about, he was running 2nd at the end of Stage 2.
William Byron Top 10ed the Monster Mile only once in four tries. Byron’s 8th place finish last May was cleanly one spot better than Clint’s. I expect that he’ll need another Top 10 to beat him on Saturday – just as long as we don’t see sparks or flames coming from the #14 Ford. After all, that’s the type of unfortunate finish that my wife keeps warning me about. Both drivers are scrapping to stay above the postseason cut line, so this battle should be a good one. My betting card includes this -115 position against William Byron to go with the +130 Top 10 play. Pulling for a Clint Bowyer sweep is going to be a major sweat job.
Last Chance at Daytona
The Cup Series returns to Daytona International Speedway next weekend for the third time this year to close out the 2020 regular season. Most drivers are locked into the postseason, but it is the last chance to sneak into the playoffs for some. Stay connected with us on Twitter and be sure to visit our NASCAR page when the odds drop to catch our early plays. Or subscribe below to have our handicaps delivered straight to your inbox:
