Chopping last week’s featured matchup bets represented a split of my entire Talladega betting card. Despite the Blaney/Elliott bet flip-flopping on us in the final laps, Charlotte approaches with my bankroll intact. When it comes to making the Round of 8, the top teams headlined by Chase Elliott sit in the catbird seat with an advantageous road course up ahead. The lack of carnage at Talladega puts a huge emphasis on this weekend. Only the 2022 Bank of America Roval 400 stands in the way of four teams and the impending cut to eight.
The 2022 Bank of America Roval 400 – Featured Handicaps for the Charlotte Roval
This week’s elimination race at the Roval marks the sixth and final road course contest of the season. It’s a rare situation where we have five comparable races to handicap performance in the Next Gen car. There’s one little wrinkle, however. We’ve run just one hybrid road course (Indy) so there is plenty unknown as the Cup Series races the Charlotte Roval for the fifth time in as many years. My adjustments for this week include throwing out recent speed over a variety of unrelated track styles post-Watkins Glen in August. Plus these are pre-practice reads, so a heavy dose of track-specific and 2022 road course info led us to three early positions for the Bank of America Roval 400. BOL!
What Am I Missing? Denny Hamlin -115 vs. Daniel Suarez -105
| Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamlin | A | C+ | C- |
| Suarez | C+ | D | A |
Let’s kick things off with a showdown between two playoff drivers on the right side of the cut line. Daniel Suarez and his Trackhouse Racing compatriot Ross Chastain have been uncharacteristically quiet in the postseason to date but have the opportunity to make some noise this weekend. They represent two of the three fastest cars on the road courses this season and collectively nailed down a pair of wins within six Top 10s. Daniel’s rough ending at the Indy Road Course was a rare blemish intermixed with a win at Sonoma and P5s at both Road America and Watkins Glen.
Herein lies the 2022 vs. previous seasons debate. Suarez has been one of the most productive road course racers this season. Hell, the Sonoma win is essentially what made the #99 a playoff team. Prior to ’22 you would windmill slam a wager on Denny Hamlin in this same matchup. From 2016-2021, Hamlin notched 12 Top 10 finishes in 19 road course contests including 2-for-2 at the hybrid Daytona Road Course. Oh, how quickly things change. This season’s five-race array left the #11 with a bitter taste for these tracks. No finishes better than the P14 at Indy calls into question whether this elite team can pull it together for Sunday. Then again, Hamlin has outfinished Suarez twice in those five races. But the underlying speed data says Suarez in all five and ratings point to him in all except for COTA in March.
WAGER: Suarez -105 (DraftKings)
Suarez and the #99 crew arguably needs the points a lot more than Denny to stave off elimination. Although decent runs by both likely means advancement. How does that play out on Sunday? That’s one of the lingering unknowns that I’m betting into. Give me the slight underdog in this matchup with the expectation for a big day for Trackhouse.
Stayin’ Alive: Austin Cindric -115 vs. Chase Briscoe -105
| Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cindric | B- | N/A | A |
| Briscoe | B | C- | C+ |
This head-to-head matchup is interesting to me for a number of reasons. First and foremost, these two drivers are fighting for the final berth in the Round of 8. Technically, several drivers are scrapping for the spot but the #2 & #14 teams are literally tied for it as things stand today. With motivations and situations essentially equal, the strategy decision to “points race” or push for a top finish plays less of a factor in handicapping a matchup play versus a placing market bet.
At its roots, this is a handicap between a sophomore Cup Series driver with three road course Top 10s in his rookie season and a full-time rookie who has been excellent this year in those spots. Following suit with our general approach with the Next Gen car, weighting 2022 data and results slightly higher than previous years gives a nod to Cindric on this track type. I’d generally disregard Austin’s partial Cup schedule in 2021 behind the wheel of the #33 Penske Ford that produced a lone Top 10 at the Indy Road Course. Full-time work in the #2 this season has been considerably more fruitful. Cindric’s road course finishes include four Top 10s and a P13 at Watkins Glen.
WAGER: Cindric -115 (DraftKings)
I won’t overweight his runner up at the Indy Road Course due to the well-documented shenanigans there, though Austin had the 3rd fastest car once the dust settled. In fact, the #2 Ford registered the 6th fastest overall speed on road courses per Ryan at ifantasyrace.com. Compare that to Chase Briscoe’s rank as 15th fastest. In his second season at the Cup level, Briscoe has yet to crack the Top 20 on the hybrid courses like Daytona, Indy, and Charlotte. Add those struggles to the simple fact that Cindric has outfinished Briscoe in all five road course races this season by at least seven positions.
When you look at the bottom five drivers in the standings, none of them should feel comfortable with a slew of very good road course racers ahead of them. Austin Cindric’s consistently impressive work in this new car should concern not just Briscoe but Byron and Bell as well. The #2’s main concern is relative unfamiliarity with the Charlotte Roval, yet I expect it to be a minor factor overshadowed by the kid’s skills on these courses.
Too Much Emphasis On 2022?
| Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDowell | B+ | C | A- |
Speaking of strong road course production in the Next Gen car, Michael McDowell broke out this year with four Top 10 finishes of his own. Compare that to just three such finishes in 10+ seasons prior. Once the Cup Series schedule opened up to a variety of courses beyond Sonoma and Watkins Glen, McDowell began to shine with Daytona Road Course Top 10s in 2020 & 2021 and a P7 on a wet COTA last season. Although he has yet to crack the Top 10 at the Charlotte Roval, top ten speed across the five road course races this season gives me the impression that the #34 team has found a fruitful niche in this situation. Top ten speed in each of the last four such contests directly translated to strong finishes – and I expect business as usual from McDowell & Co. on Sunday.
WAGER: McDowell Top 10 +120 (Bovada)
At the risk of being that guy bragging about getting good prices early, I kept this handicap in the article despite the lone domestic book cutting the +120. A slice of us U.S.-based bettors still work offshore and Bovada matched that price Tuesday afternoon. That helped me cobble together a full position on this one before practice sessions get underway. Underwhelming work on Saturday could offer an even better price if you like what the #34 brings to the table.
BOL and enjoy a huge Sunday of sports betting!!!
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