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SURVIVOR PICK – NFL Week 3

YANNI – Status – Did Not Survive (1 miss)
JJ – Status – Alive (0 misses)

Teams Used:

YANNI
Baltimore Ravens
Carolina Panthers

JJ
Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens

Overview:

Week two offered some interesting spreads including a couple of slam dunks with the Ravens and the Patriots. Having used the Ravens already Yanni opted to play with fire by taking Carolina at home rather than playing the New England Patriots. An embarrassing week two implosion blew up any chance of a wire-to-wire survivor play as the Panthers went down on Thursday night. As mentioned at the open of our season, he’ll keep rolling and try to get back on track this weekend. JJ had another solid cruising win as the Ravens handled business against Rookie Kyler Murray and he’s alive and still searching for a perfect season. Back to business in the search for sure things or mild gambles for week three survivor.

Strategy / Odds:

There are eight games with a touchdown spread or greater difference this week so that’s a really good thing for a survivor pool. The biggest challenge is figuring out who you want to go with or trying to justify not going with the New England Patriots who are sitting at a -23 spread. It’s hard to recommend not going with the Pats or the Cowboys if you’ve got them available, which you most likely have at least one.

Here is a quick glance at the four largest spreads for the week:
(Bovada Sportsbook 9/18/19)

New York Jets +23 at New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins +21.5 at Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos +8 at Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders +8 at Minnesota Vikings

The top two spreads above look more like college spreads than something we’re used to seeing in the NFL. Anytime most of the sportsbooks don’t have the moneyline posted you know that it’s about as done of a deal as can happen in professional sports. JJ is wisely taking a sure thing as he’ll grab the opponent of the Miami Dolphins, which sure seems like the best way to play survivor in 2019. The Dolphins have shown no sign that they’ll be able to even keep a game close, yet alone come away with a victory. Dallas is on a roll and Dak Prescott is still trying to earn his big payday. Is there any chance that the Cowboys don’t win this game by at least three touchdowns?

Yanni rolled the dice in week two passing on a couple of sure things in favor of trying to find the one good play for the Carolina Panthers. You’d think that the lesson would be enough to guide him to grab one of the three touchdown favorites to get back on track, but where’s the fun in that? Playing the same philosophy that burned him in week 2, he’s taking the Green Bay Packers in what he feels may be the only opportunity to play them. The Packers aren’t great, however they are much better at home. The Broncos and Joe Flacco are also much better in mile high. When you put the two together, you get an 8 point spread and Yanni’s pick for week three. Go Pack Go.

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