Previous Week Record – 2-1
Season Record – 49-44-1
Preview:
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are settling in to Glendale, Arizona with not only the sports community, but the eyes of the entire world focused on Super Bowl LVII. The Eagles boast a talented roster and found a relatively unimpeded path to the big game as the top seed in the NFC. The Chiefs were able to finally best their new pesky rivals in Joe Burrow and the Bengals to earn yet another shot at a Lombardi Trophy. As always, there are storylines aplenty, from the coaches to the quarterbacks, and even a pair of Kelce brothers you may have heard a little about. With one final football game of the season, there’s one more opportunity to place some wagers, and hopefully come away with some season-ending winnings.
The spread for Super Bowl LVII opened with the Eagles around a 1 point favorite at most books with an over/under set at 50.5 points. Early bets have favored the Chiefs, then swung back to the Eagles, and the total has stayed around the same mark, mostly settling at 51. With the emergence of large gambling entities across the world, there are no shortage of other bets to place if you don’t want to play the game against the spread. Can Patrick Mahomes build on his legacy with a second Super Bowl win, or can the Eagles capture their first title since the magic they found in 2017?
Super Bowl LVII
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (15-5) ATS(10-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-7) ATS(13-7)
Sunday February 12th, 2023
6:30pm
FOX
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
From the standpoint of the rosters for the Eagles and Chiefs, there’s a pretty clear edge in favor of Philadelphia. However, the Chiefs have some really important advantages as well, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes. A big question is whether or not an intangible, such as coaching or special teams could be a difference-maker in determining the winner?
Quarterback – Kansas City Chiefs
There isn’t a team in the league that will take this edge away from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, as he’s the clear choice for MVP this season. When comparing Mahomes to any team or quarterback, the question is, just how big is the margin between the two? In this case, whether you believe it’s based on the team around him or not, the gap isn’t that huge between Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. The latter actually has some advantages in terms of mobility as a weapon, but overall, Mahomes clearly gives the Chiefs the edge at the most important position.
Running Backs – Philadelphia Eagles
Of all of the position groups, the running backs are probably the most evenly matched between these two teams. Both teams will employ a few players at the position, with the Chiefs relying on rookie Isaih Pacheco, and activating Clyde Edwards-Helaire off of injured reserve. They’ll also likely lean on Jerick McKinnon as a receiver, particularly if they are behind or get into a track meet. The Eagles will lean on Miles Sanders, but are not afraid to give Kenneth Gainwell some touches, or third stringer Boston Scott. The talent and depth here is pretty even, and in a game that should feature a lot of passing, the team that runs the ball better could have a sneaky advantage.
Wide Receivers – Philadelphia Eagles
Patrick Mahomes can elevate any wide receiver room, but the discrepancy in talent between the wide receivers for the Eagles and Chiefs is pretty obvious. That doesn’t even factor in Kansas City not having Mecole Hardman available, and JuJu Smith-Schuster likely to play this game at less than 100%. The Chiefs will have to go with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney to round things out with Smith-Schuster. The Eagles on the other hand offer one of the best 1-2 combos in the league with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and have some veteran depth as well if needed. Big edge to the Eagles here.
Tight Ends – Kansas City Chiefs
It’s not as though the Eagles don’t utilize a very good tight end, with Dallas Goedert being a top target for Jalen Hurts. With that being said, this is another position where the Chiefs own the advantage over any team and player in the league. Travis Kelce just continues to be the clear-cut top tight end in the league, and figures to see a lot of work in this game. You could argue that Goedert is a better blocker, but Travis Kelce is TE1 in the National Football League for a reason. It’s also worth noting that the Chiefs aren’t afraid to involve their other tight ends either, particularly in the red zone.
Offensive Line – Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles under general manager Howie Roseman have made a career out of building their roster through the trenches. Hitting on early draft picks has afforded the Eagles what many believe is the top offensive line in the league, blending veterans like center Jason Kelce with young talent like Landon Dickerson. The big question for the Eagles in this game is how healthy Dickerson and right tackle Lane Johnson will be, as both are playing with some nagging injuries. One of the best parts of the Eagles offensive line is their ability to be elite in both run-blocking and pass-blocking. The chiefs offensive line is also a very good group, although not quite as complete or dominant as Philadelphia. They’re anchored in the middle by All-Pro center Creed Humphrey and guard Joe Thuney. We’ve got the Chiefs with the 7th ranked offensive line in the league, compared to the top unit for the Eagles.
Defensive Line – Philadelphia Eagles
The Chiefs have top defensive lineman playing in the Super Bowl as veteran Chris Jones is playing as well as he ever has in coming off of a healthy 15.5 sack season. However, it’s the Eagles who may have the next four or five best players at the position, as they rotate through powerful combinations on the interior and solid edge rushers on the ends. The Chiefs will need to get some production from veterans like Frank Clark, and perhaps rookie George Karlaftis if they hope to get after Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Much like with the offensive line, the Chiefs defensive line is a solid group collectively, but there’s still a wide gap between what they’re bringing to the table, compared to the Eagles.
Linebackers – Philadelphia Eagles
Other than the tight competition at running back, linebacker is probably the next closest battle between these teams as both offer some quality players at the position. The Chiefs have an underrated talent in Nick Bolton, and what’s probably a slightly overrated talent in Willie Gay. They’ll also use veteran Carlos Dunlap in pass rush situations. All are good players, if not great, who are asked to do a lot in the varying defensive scheme for Kansas City. The Eagles meanwhile will match that with newer additions Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards off the ball. The final piece for Philadelphia which tilts the scale in their favor is edge backer Haason Reddick, who is playing his best football as a monster attacking opposing quarterbacks. He’s the difference in these units that gives yet another edge Philly.
Defensive Backs – Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles boast one of the top secondaries in the entire league, anchored by top cornerbacks Darius Slay, Jr. and James Bradberry. After missing some time with injuries, they welcomed back corner Avonte Maddox and strong safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Although the Eagles play a lot of zone defense in the secondary, this talented core give them a lot of options in how they want to defend a QB like Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs received some good news as it looks as though their top corner L’Jarius Sneed will be cleared to play, and he’ll be asked to do a lot, as will rookie Trent McDuffie, opposite of him. The Chiefs also ask a lot of their safeties due to the style of defense they play, and both Juan Thornhill and Justin Reid are solid contributors. At the end of the day, it’s the talent of Slay and Bradberry that provide another checkmark on the grid for Philadelphia against this Chiefs unit.
Special Teams – Kansas City Chiefs
One thing that we’ve learned over the span of 56 Super Bowls is how impactful special teams can be in winning or losing the game. You can look at nearly a third of the outcomes of these games and directly correlate special teams to the final result. Measuring who has the advantage can sometimes be a little trickier as it usually requires a combination of some metrics, as well as a bit of the “eye-test”. Both breakdowns show that the Eagles and Chiefs are both very good on special teams, and very close. They’re nearly identical in DVOA and PFF rankings, and both within the top five. Each team has a reliable kicker and a veteran punter. We’re going to give an ever so slight win here to the Chiefs who’ve seen kicker Harrison Butker nail some clutch long field goals in his career, and a return unit that is a little more explosive and likely to break something long.
Coaching – Kansas City Chiefs
As you would probably expect from two Super Bowl teams, coaching has and will be at the forefront in Super Bowl LVII. Each staff boasts respected head coaches and coordinators, led by head coaches Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni. The biggest difference between these two staffs really comes down to experience level. The trio of Ried, Eric Bienemy and Steve Spagnuolo have all been here before and can lean on that experience. Playing in the big game is all new stuff for the Eagles regime. From and X’s and O’s standpoint, they’re fairly even again, but a slight advantage has to be given to Reid and Spagnuolo who have the creativity drop on anyone. Really, for our money, Andy Reid is probably the top head coach in the league at this point in time so we’ll give this edge to his new team, rather than his former.
2022 Rankings Comparison
In studying pure metrics, these teams seem to balance out pretty evenly between them. As we pointed out above, that doesn’t really hold up when you dive a little deeper at each position. Both teams rank high offensively, with the Eagles ranked higher on the defensive side of the ball. We’ll take a closer look at the matchups below:
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
The Kansas City Chiefs can get quite a bit done on the offensive side of the ball with the combination of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. While there is little doubt that these two will be the most important cogs in the game plan against the Eagles, they’re going to need a little more than that if they want to come away with a win. As most games do, things will start in the trenches, as the Chiefs offensive line is going to need to be at their best there. The Eagles led the league with a ridiculous 70 sacks throughout the season, and leaned on a constant push from their front seven. Kansas City addressed their offensive line woes after a Super Bowl bludgeoning at the hands of the Buccanneers, adding center Creed Humphrey and free agent left guard Joe Thuney and inserting Trey Smith at the right guard position. This group will be tested by an Eagles interior that will rotate starters Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave along with a trio of rookie Jordan Davis and veteran stars Linval Joseph and N’Damukong Suh. If you want to see great on great, keep an eye on this battle in particular, as this is about as good as you’ll see in the league. The real matchups upfront though will be with left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. and right tackle Andrew Wylie versus Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and edge rusher Haason Reddick. Wylie has been the weakest link on a good Chiefs line, and Reddick has been on an absolute tear, as witnessed in their thrashing of the 49ers. Expect the Chiefs to start off testing Wylie on his own, but if Reddick and the Eagles get early pressure they’ll add a back or tight end to help on that edge.
It’s not just the pass protecting that will be a challenge for the Chiefs, they’ll also want to establish a running game. A running attack isn’t necessarily a requirement for KC to move the football, but against a pass rush like the Eagles, they really need to at least keep some of their rushers honest and some pressure off a still not 100% Patrick Mahomes. Isaih Pacheco has earned a reputation as a physical and energetic rusher, something that gave the Eagles trouble earlier in the season, but they’ve since shored up. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could get some touches as he returns from injury, but it’s very possible Jerick McKinnon gets a hefty snap count in this game. McKinnon emerged as a reliable target for Mahomes, and in a game that could end up being pass-heavy, look for the shifty runner to get quite a bit of work out of the backfield.
We’ve established the importance of the big guys upfront, but we all know the Chiefs offense starts and ends with Patrick Mahomes and the passing game. First, the good news for Kansas City. Travis Kelce has been dialed in, and should attack an eagles defense that can struggle in the middle of the field. Andy Reid will stack Kelce in some sets that should free him up and if Mahomes is under pressure he’ll look Kelce’s way often. Don’t be surprised if Kelce manages to have another double digit catch performance, and finds the end zone. (Hints for those prop bets). Now, we do need to shift to the not so good news for Kansas City. During the season the Chiefs made due with a pieced together wide receiver group, and Patrick Mahomes spread the ball around to a lot of different targets. He’ll be without Mecole Hardman who re-injured himself a week ago, and playing with a potentially slowed down Kadarius Toney. That puts some pressure on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who have the tough tasks of matching up against the Eagles cornerback duo of Darius Slay, Jr. and James Bradberry. While the Eagles do play a lot of zone, it’s tough to imagine any of the Chiefs receivers really having a breakout type of performance. Because of the difficult matchup, it’s going to require Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy coming up with some of their most creative and effective game plans of the year.
Up to this point, we haven’t even touched on the high ankle sprain of Patrick Mahomes and how that could limit what he and the offense want to do in this game. Based on what we saw against the Bengals, and a bye week, our best assumption is that Mahomes should be good enough to play with minimal impact. Scrambling is a weapon that Mahomes does like to use at times, but it’s really just imperative that he has enough mobility in the pocket to move around and extend plays when under pressure. In Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs chances of winning quite simply, live and die with Patrick Mahomes. If he’s protected and takes care of the football, they likely come away with a win. If the Eagles have him under constant pressure and can force mistakes, it will be hard for KC to hoist the trophy.
THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ON OFFENSE:
Just as it was important to start the Chiefs offensive breakdown with their offensive line, the same thing needs to be done for the Philadelphia Eagles on offense. The Eagles boast what most believe is the top offensive line in the league, anchored by their stud tackles, and supported with an equally solid interior. This group is big, physical, and can run-block and pass protect at all levels. The Chiefs will look to their All-Pro DT Chris Jones to get after Jalen Hurts, and recently they’ve moved their star around the line, looking for weak spots to exploit. The problem of course as mentioned above, is where is that weak spot against this Eagles front? Assuming the Eagles will be doubling Jones for most of the game, the Chiefs will need some production from veteran Frank Clark, rookie George Karlaftis, or someone else. The defense for Kansas City under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has always approached opponents with the goal of disrupting the timing of an offense and a quarterback. When they cannot do this with their front four, they often resort to heavy blitzing, which is likely to be the case in this game. They’ll mix things up with different rushers, but as always, they’ll open themselves up to potentially giving up some big plays.
The Eagles running game will have a little more pressure on it to actually produce, and not just be a decoy for the passing game. Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott will be asked to help move the chains against a mediocre Chiefs rush defense. That defense did play better in the later portion of the season, but if the Eagles can get their offensive line to the second level backers, they should be able to run, if they stay committed. We should get a good glimpse early in the game on what the Chiefs defensive plan is depending on where their safeties are lined up. If they stay in a cover two shell, it should tell Philly they’ll take their chances against the running game. If they’re playing tighter towards the line of scrimmage to take away the run, it means they believe their corners can hold up against the Eagles receivers.
On the topic of the Eagles receivers, two players that have to win their individual matchups are A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Because of the Chiefs propensity for blitzing, they’re going to have some different one-on-one matchups throughout this game. The Eagles have to connect on these occasions, which is generally when they’re clicking the best. The real wild card in this game could be tight end Dallas Goedert, who has not only been a security target for Jalen Hurts, but also can attack a Spagnuolo defense that often can lose track of the tight end. The Chiefs secondary is a good unit based upon what they’re asked to do, but in the situations they’re often placed in, they’re vulnerable against talented receivers.
Things circle back to the quarterback for the Eagles as well, however there is clearly a different need and expectation for Jalen Hurts within the Eagles offense. The most important thing Jalen Hurts can do in this matchup against the Chiefs is to take care of the football. Hurts played mostly mistake free football throughout the season, and allowed his playmakers to make plays. With the adrenaline of the Super Bowl, it’s important that he continues to do that and doesn’t try to do too much. That includes running the ball, something he slowed down a bit with after sustaining his shoulder injury. Having the ability to run is huge, specifically against the blitz, but Hurts needs to be selective on how often and when he runs. Although we mentioned Hurts not trying to do too much, he is going to have to perform at a high level for the Eagles to win. The cruising victories he and the team had in their first two playoff games will not be the same game script he’ll face in Super Bowl LVII.
KEY STATS: – The Eagles are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Eagles are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games vs. the AFC
– The Chiefs have won 7 games in a row
– The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NFC
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Eagles
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games for the Chiefs
PUBLIC MONEY: – Philadelphia Eagles – 83% / MONEYLINE BETS – Kansas City Chiefs -51%
THE SKINNY:
As always with a Super Bowl, there’s either way more information than you need, or not nearly enough analytics to handicap what’s going to happen in this game. If there is a such thing as a “sharp” side in this game, it probably rests with the Kansas City Chiefs. Realistically, bettors seem to be fairly split on this contest, although the number of bets do favor the Eagles fairly heavily. One of the hardest things to do in sports betting is fading great players and coaches, which is where the Chiefs have the advantage. Despite the extreme importance of the quarterback position, football is the ultimate team game. The Chiefs do boast five elite players, but they have some clear holes beyond that. The Eagles on the other hand, really do not have any holes on the roster. More importantly, they have the structures in place to counter what the Chiefs do really well. Assuming Patrick Mahomes can somewhat move around, we’re fully expecting a very competitive game that may end up being a sixty minute battle. After what was a disappointing NFL postseason from a standpoint of drama, things should shift in what we believe could be one of those epic game for the ages.
BetCrushers Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Kansas City Chiefs 26
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
Despite the fact that the Super Bowl is the most watched and heavily wagered on sporting event on earth, it’s very difficult to either find a valuable edge, or accrue a lot of closing line value. Because the sportsbooks are so heavily invested, they’re completely focused on making sure they have advantages over bettors. While many sports bettors love to go big in the game’s final contest of the season, the BetCrushers will be wagering moderately with most of our plays on Super Bowl Sunday. We’ve done as much studying and prep work as we can, and here’s what we’re settling on.
