The stage is nearly set for 200 laps at one of the fastest tracks on the Cup Series circuit: Michigan International Speedway. Today’s special Saturday BetCrushers.com NASCAR race update at Michigan comes at you because there’s plenty to break down with this week’s spread out schedule. Michigan native Brad Keselowski showed that his #2 Ford is going to be a force to contend with in Sunday’s race. He posted a blazing 190.471 mph in his qualifying lap, earning him the pole after a great practice earlier in the day. Here’s the Top 25 qualifiers with the matchup drivers in bold text:
Results of Qualification
- Brad Keselowski
- Kevin Harvick
- William Byron
- Alex Bowman
- Clint Bowyer
- Chase Elliott
- Ryan Blaney
- Joey Logano
- Paul Menard
- Jimmie Johnson
- Daniel Suarez
- Aric Amirola
- Kurt Busch
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Erik Jones
- Kyle Larson
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
- Matt Tifft
- Ryan Newman
- Ty Dillon
- Kyle Busch
- Michael McDowell
- David Ragan
- Chris Buescher
(c) MRN
Friday Speed + Saturday Racing = Betting Opportunities
Friday featured a single-lap practice and qualifying session that set the starting grid for Sunday’s 200 laps to victory. However, the teams prepared for Friday’s practice and qualification differently than they did for Saturday’s practices. Yesterday’s runs were one-lap only and the setups were geared towards the objective of nailing a huge lap time for starting position. The Saturday AM session simulated race conditions, measured by the best five-lap averages. Teams also practiced pit road entry and exit since Michigan’s long pit area can get drivers in trouble.
We highlighted Brad in Wednesday’s race preview as a guy who consistently lurks in the Top 10 at Michigan. Perhaps the glaring mistake in the analysis was a statement that his +700 to-win price didn’t look to great at that point. After Friday’s strong showing on the track, Keselowski’s price has been slashed to the +400 range. He has four Top 3 finishes in his last eight August Michigan races, and should be a threat as the pole sitter.
Kevin Harvick Rising
Kevin Harvick had the strongest five-lap performance in the morning session, followed closely by Kyle Busch. We played Harvick -115 over Kyle on Thursday, but now you’ll have to lay somewhere around -135 to get Harvick. Despite Busch having lackluster times on Friday, he excelled in live action and should make this matchup very interesting tomorrow. These guys run hard and you shouldn’t expect anything less at a fast track like Michigan.
Despite crushing Friday’s sessions, Brad’s 18th-place Saturday morning practice was not spectacular. You better believe that the #2 team will make adjustments, so the final practice should tell us a lot about what to expect out of him in the Consumer Energy 400. If your book still has the matchups available during practice, take a look at Harvick vs. Keselowski. We took a position on Harvick (-115) over Keselowski at the tail end of the early session. The #4’s matchup price dropped significantly from -135 after Friday. This is a serious pricing error in our opinion, considering that Harvick qualified right behind the pole sitter and looked damn good in today’s live-action practice.
Battle of the Young Guns: Ryan Blaney vs. Erik Jones
(c) motorsport.com
Another intriguing matchup features two of NASCAR’s rising stars, Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones. This is a classic handicappers’ dilemma: go with the hot driver, or the one who has performed consistently better at this week’s track? Erik Jones is racing with a sense of urgency, as he may be the odd man out with Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of the season. He’s finished in the Top 5 in four straight races and has six T10s in his last seven.
Ryan Blaney T10ed his last three Cup races, and has been in the Top 15 in ten of his last twelve. Since joining Penske in 2018, Blaney has been good at MIS, finishing 8th, 5th, and 9th. He qualified right around his finishing position in each of those races. Barring any issues today, he will start 7th tomorrow.
Erik Jones also changed teams before the 2018 season, joining the strong stable at JGR. He qualified well in each of the three races: 8th, 4th, and 14th. However, Jones wasn’t able to convert those strong starting positions into big finishes (15th, 13th, and 31st). Pay attention to these drivers in today’s final practice. Blaney was strong on Friday, but was significantly weaker than Jones in the AM session. This matchup opened at Blaney -110 but moved to -125 after he qualified 7th to Jones’ 16th. The final practice session should tell us whether Erik’s #20 Toyota is the right play tomorrow.
Revisiting Kurt Busch
Wednesday’s race preview highlighted betting potential on Kurt Busch yet again. We noted that Kurt has finished several places higher at Michigan compared to where he started. The #1 car qualified 13th, but take a look at what he does today to support a position(s) on him. He posted a solid 8th in today’s early session, indicating that he should continue his trend of finishing in the Top 10 on Sunday.
His odds to finish in the Top 10 were set at -125 early in the week but dropped to +100 after qualifying just outside of it. Can’t blame the guy who wants to see the results of today’s second practice session, but we locked up the T10 wager at +100. Kurt has danced around this mark all season but his past performances at Michigan warrant a play at this price.
Our pre-qualification article also highlighted Kurt in a couple pick ’em matchup plays; vs. Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. The Elliott matchup is unavailable in our accounts but the Larson matchup is still up as a -115 deadlock at one book. Larson’s 17th-place qualification was backed up by a 16th-place practice session this morning. We just played Kurt at -115 against Larson, doubling down on the consistency of the #1 car at Michigan.
