PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-2

SEASON RESULTS:
14-17

Week 4 Recap:

Remember that old clip when Steve Young won the Super Bowl as the starting quarterback for the 49ers and he joked about getting the monkey off of his back? That’s how we feel after finally having a productive 5-2 weekend of NFL player props. Our mark on the season is still dismal, however we’ve improved each week and as long as we continue that trend it will work out when it’s all said and done. A quick review of last week’s selections: Chris Olave needed every bit of time, but started off beating his yardage mark in the London game, which was really a needed victory for us. Our second selection cashed early, as Devin Singletary caught a couple of early passes and went well over his total. Nick Chubb, Mr. 100 yards had another steady performance getting that win, and Rashaad Penny went off against a defense that hasn’t figured out how to stop anyone yet this season. Our fifth win was almost crushed in garbage time, but fortunately the Rams decided to run on their final play of the game, allowing our under on Matthew Stafford to stay just below. Spoiler alert, you may see that bet again soon. Our two losses were players we went to the well to one too many times with, as Tom Brady finally got it going through the air with the return of some weapons, and Michael Pittman, Jr. was shutout in the second half for the Colts. Overall, it was a good week, and one we need to build on.

Week 5 Preview:

After a successful week four, we’ve got eight total plays teed up in what looks like it should be entertaining week five in the NFL. We’re fading three guys with tough matchups, and have more running backs featured than we have earlier in the season. As mentioned above, we’ve got Matthew Stafford on the card for the second week in a row, but also have four new names on the ticket as well. There’s some variety for everyone, so enjoy the weekend!

Our Picks:

Dalvin Cook – Over 76.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

By the standards of Dalvin Cook, the running back has gotten off to a somewhat slow start to the 2022 NFL season, not yet cracking the 100 yard mark in any games. He’ll look to break that trend against a Bears team that has not been good against the run this season, despite playing decent overall. Cook is playing at the comfort of the dome in Minneapolis, and says he feels as good as he has since week number one. Throughout his career Cook has played both well and poorly against the Bears, and there was a direct correlation between whether or not DT Akiem Hicks was in the lineup for Chicago. Hicks is no longer patrolling the middle for Chicago, so we’re expecting a big day from Cook on Sunday in an important divisional game. With the exception of the game against the Eagles where Minnesota was behind, and completely overwhelmed in the trenches, Cook as tallied 76, 96 and 90 in his three other games. As long as he stays healthy in this contest, this should be his first 100 yard day of the year, or at the very least over the 76.5 yards posted as his total. Give us the over and #Skol.

Austin Ekeler – Under 53.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Fantasy owners of Austin Ekeler had to be elated to finally see a monster stat line put up by the Chargers running back last Sunday, including three touchdowns. The fact of the matter is, even in a great matchup with a lot of fantasy points, Ekeler still wasn’t dominant running the football. The Chargers offensive line is banged up and has not played well at all in run blocking duties. Their matchup against the Browns doesn’t get easier as it looks like Myles Garrett will return, and possibly Jadeveon Clowney as well on their defensive line. Based on the style of defense the Browns like to play, as well as the continued absence of wide receiver Keenan Allen, it’s difficult to see Ekeler really getting things going on the ground in this contest. In what will be a physical road test, 53.5 yards seems too high for a guy who’s four game rushing stats read 36, 39, 5, and 60 (against the worst rush defense in the league). We’ve got Ekeler pegged around the 40 yard mark Sunday against Cleveland so we’ll take the little cushion we have and go under with him.

James Robinson – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

If you happened to catch our weekly article for Sunday DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football you noticed that James Robinson is our projected Star of the Week. After a tough contest for Robinson and the Jags on the road against the undefeated Eagles, Robinson has a much nice matchup at home against the Houston Texans. No team has been worse stopping the run, and this is a game that the Jaguars are touchdown favorites in. We’re expecting a lot of carries for both Robinson and Travis Etienne, and as we played him in week three, we like Robinson as a potential 100 yard candidate. To be honest, this is a situation where if you can find a higher alternate total for Robinson, it’s worth considering. That’s how much we like playing the Jags running back this Sunday.

Najee Harris – Under 53.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

The good news for Najee Harris and the Steelers is the young running back has gotten better every week this season. The not so good news is he faces the Bills as two touchdown underdogs on Sunday in Buffalo. Throw in the fact that he’ll be lining up behind first time starting quarterback in rookie Kenny Pickett and it could end up being a long day for the Steelers on the scoreboard. The Bills defense has been stout against opposing running backs, and really has numbers skewed a bit overall from a matchup last week against Lamar Jackson. The Bills also should have starting defensive tackle Ed Oliver back in the lineup after missing the last few weeks which will help their rotation on the defensive line. Harris could be a factor in the passing game this weekend, but it seems like rushing yards could be tough to come by. If the Bills do build an early lead, that could also lead to a lack of rushing attempts for him as well. Even with a low total, we’re going to go under here.

Carson Wentz – Over 233.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Making a habit of betting overs with Carson Wentz is probably not a great way to build your sports betting bankroll. With that being said, there is always a time and a place, and this seems like that spot for the Commanders quarterback. Unlike Harris above, who has improved each week, Wentz has basically gone steadily backwards. There seems to be some pressure building on the Washington quarterback, as fans are already clamoring for former starter Taylor Heinecke to get back into the lineup. Wentz knows he needs to play better, and a matchup with the Titans could be just what the doctor ordered. The Titans have given up the third most passing yards through four games as their corners have routinely gotten beaten by better wide receivers. This is a great opportunity for Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel to have big days, and with Jahan Dotson out of the lineup. we could see more work from the now trio of running backs out of the backfield. Wentz did have back to back 300 yard passing games to open the season, and a favorable home matchup should allow him to get over this low total of 233.5.

Rhamondre Stevenson – Over 72.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-110)

One of the more weirdly intriguing games of the weekend pits the Detroit Lions heading to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, with rookie Bailey Zappe set to be the starter for New England. The Patriots don’t necessarily lean on the quarterback since the departure of Tom Brady, and that should only be amplified on Sunday against Detroit. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson should see a lot of work out of the backfield, as each have appealing rushing totals. We’re opting for Stevenson and his combined total for a couple of reasons. First, he’s played a higher snap percentage the last two weeks, and second the game script might favor him a bit more. If the Lions can continue scoring at the torrid pace they have offensively, the Patriots might have to throw a little more. Stevenson generally sees more work on passing downs. The reality is, both he and Harris could hit over 72.5 yards rushing against the soft Lions defense, but with a combined yardage total of that number, we’re going to give the second-stringer a shot.

Matthew Stafford – Under 260.5 Yards Passing (-110)

The Los Angeles Rams are desperately searching for some receiving help for quarterback Matthew Stafford and the offense. Cooper Kupp is still playing at the highest level, and Tyler Higbee is playing well at the tight end position. Beyond that, there’s been next to nothing for the Rams in their passing game, as Allen Robinson II has been severely disappointing. The Rams have a big game Sunday against the Cowboys, a team that has gotten after opposing quarterbacks and played pretty well against the pass. The Cowboys are built to defend the pass, so Sean McVay would be wise to try to incorporate Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson into the offense a little more in this contest. The Cowboys will also be looking to run the ball, which should keep the clock moving a bit. Unlike last week where the Rams had to go to throwing mode in the second half, as they were trailing and couldn’t run against a stout 49ers defense, they should remain more balanced here. We’re expecting a slower paced, and lower scoring game in LA, so we’ll try to fade the Rams quarterback again this weekend.

Ja’Marr Chase – Over 67.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Sunday Night Football has one of the top games of the week as stars will be on display when the Bengals clash with the Ravens. One of those stars for the Bengals is wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who hopes to duplicate the success he had a season ago against Baltimore. Things have started a little slower for the second year receiver in 2022, but a primetime matchup against the Ravens is a great spot for him to shine. The Ravens have given up more big plays than any defense in the league, and they’ll be without 2nd and 3rd cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Kyle Fuller in this game. With the Bengals offering a plethora of weapons, the Ravens will likely play more zone than usual, which means Chase will have some great opportunities against backup defensive backs. In what figures to be a high-scoring game, Chase should be able to crack his yardage total whether he has a dynamic performance, or just an average one.

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