PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-3

SEASON RESULTS:
24-23

Week 7 Recap:

There are weeks when you might finish 3-3 and feel pretty good about that, and there are weeks when you are going to feel disappointed to be 3-3. For us this week was clearly the latter as we just missed a 5-1 week by little more than a fingernail. Hey, we realize that you can make that case a lot of the time when betting, we’ll just use it as motivation that we were pretty dialed in despite the .500 record for the week and just a tick above that for the season so far.

The morning started out great as we had Mike Evans over 4.5 catches and he had that handled prior to halftime in their contest in London. Other than the Ingram loss, which was really due to the fact the trio of Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill had more carries than he did. Teddy Bridgewater didn’t run the ball which we figured would be the case so no threat there. Our two Cowboy plays were a yawn as Amari Cooper’s under was locked after he left with a quad injury in the first quarter guaranteeing that would be safe and Ezekiell Elliott was featured as was stated. Julio Jones did what he does getting yardage and Cooper Kupp was stymied by the Niners as was the rest of his mates for good measure. We sealed the deal with the Melvin Gordon rushing under as he split time again with his partner Austin Ekeler for starters, and the running game was taken out of the equation as the Chargers got behind big again early. Sometimes when it rains it pours and when the sun is shining, it is really shining.

Week 8 Preview:

A relatively quiet week of prop bets for us this week as we only selected five that we felt that we wanted to put our money on the line with. We’ve got a couple of really good players and a couple of pretty bad players although the over/unders don’t necessarily coincide with them. Three overs and two unders pace our initial wagers for week 8.

Our Picks:

Saquon Barkley – Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Coming off of his ankle injury last week Saquon Barkley tallied 18 carries and 72 yards along with being targeted in the passing game. The Lions have struggled stopping opposing ball carriers and the Giants will want to feature Barkley early to take some pressure off of Daniel Jones. There’s always a chance that Barkley could do his damage through the air, but this sure seems like a 100 yard rushing game for Saquon on the road. There’s certainly no guarantee that a running back will go over a total like 76.5, yet no one should feel bad about betting on a guy like Barkley against a weak defense.

Joe Flacco – Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-115)

No one took more heat than Joe Flacco did looking absolute uninterested and ineffective against what was previously a horrendous Kansas City defense. He’ll look to rebound with a trip to Indianapolis against a still underappreciated Colts defense. Earlier in the week Denver traded away fan favorite Emmanuel Sanders as it looks like they’re throwing the towel in on the season and looking ahead to the future, one that Flacco won’t have much of a place in. With Sanders no longer on the roster, it becomes a little easier to defend the passing game as Courtland Sutton will now see a lot of attention on the outside. This game seems like it will be more of a defensive grinder and Flacco has only gone over the 240 mark once in the last month. It doesn’t seem like this would be a situation where he’ll have a lot of success so we’re going to bank on him sticking under his yardage total.

T.Y. Hilton – Over 4.5 Receptions (-120)

At first glance this was a really tricky prop bet to try to figure out. One the one hand 4.5 catches for a top tier receiver like T.Y. Hilton seems really simple. On the other hand a matchup against Chris Harris, Jr. in the Broncos secondary seemed to flip the thinking. After some further evaluation we’re going back to the initial response in that 4.5 catches is a breeze for Hilton this weekend. T.Y. is one of the best “home” receivers in the league being absolutely dominant in Lucas Oil Stadium, particularly against lesser opponents. Even though this may not be an air it out type of ballgame, Hilton should find enough room to grab a few balls in each half getting him over the low total. We’ll be doing the “T-Y” celebration if he can get to those five catches.

Kyle Allen – Under 229.5 Passing Yards (-115)

A week ago we took the low total of Case Keenum against the 49ers and cruised to a prop victory. We’re going back to the well again this week against a better quarterback and offense hoping San Francisco can slow down Kyle Allen. The young quarterback has not thrown for more than 224 yards in a game over the last month so it seems a little surprising that his total would be above that against the leagues top ranked passing defense that’s allowing a stingy 158 yards passing per game. With Carolina, there is always a chance that Christian McCaffrey could grab a screen pass and take it 80 yards which could destroy this under, but if the Niners’ can keep that from happening, it doesn’t seem like Allen would have enough through the air to take this total over.

David Montgomery – Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Let’s get it out there right away that we’re not fans of David Montgomery, or anything related to the Bears offense in 2019. Despite that, this is a clear opportunity to take advantage of a situational matchup and an enticing number to try to find a little bit of a hidden prop gem. Montgomery is coming off of back-to-back terrible games and really an unimpressive season overall making Bears fans wonder why they were so quick to show Jordan Howard to the door. With those struggles it can be a little scary taking an over total, but don’t let that discourage you from playing the situation here. The weather is supposed to be a little cold and possibly rainy which means the Bears will want to force the ground game as much as they can. The talk in Bears camp this week was getting back to who they want to be which is running the ball and playing strong defense. Makes sense as what they’re really saying is they don’t want Mitch Trubisky losing games for them. The Chargers have been terrible stopping the run and will again be without Brandon Mebane in the middle of their defensive line. If Montgomery can’t get 50 yards in this game, the Bears should probably just go ahead and cut him now. Bad player and offense, good number and prop bet.