PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-1
SEASON RESULTS:
68-40
Week 16 Recap:
Prop Corner stays hot as a 4-1 mark gets us to 63% on the season thus far with an overall mark of 68-40. That’s 18-2 over our last 20 wagers. So yeah, we’re either dialed in completely, or about to get completely crushed in the final two regular weeks of the season. Stay tuned to find out. The frustrating part about our 4-1 week was our lone loss, we’ll never know if it could have been a win. Courtland Sutton was injured in the first quarter on a deep pass and never returned to the game, eliminating any potential chance at his over total. Our other play in the game, fading Javonte Williams was a pretty easy cover as the Patriots clamped down on the running back as we expected. We cashed with the Bengals Trenton Irwin in his fill-in role for Ja’Marr Chase, and we also cruised to an easy cover with Joe Flacco and his yardage total. Flacco had his total by halftime, and you could have taken just his yardage to Amari Cooper and it still would have covered. The sweatiest cover was D’Andre Swift as he had only 49 yards in the fourth quarter before getting several clock-killing carries at the end to actually get him near 100 yards on the day. Another fun weekend!
Week 17 Preview:
We’ve got three prop bets for the Saturday game between the Lions and Cowboys so if you’re tailing get those in quick! Overall, we’ve got 8 wagers in, backing seven players we like and fading a good player we think will have a rough go of things on Sunday. Some new names on our card, but the end of the season is often when you can pick off some lesser known commodities. Whatever you’re wagering on this weekend, good luck and have a safe and Happy New Year!
Our Picks:
C.J. Stroud – Over 258.5 Yards Passing (-115)
If you want to make the argument C.J. Stroud’s yardage total is fair based on the fact he’s returning from injury and won’t have fellow rookie Tank Dell to throw to, that’s fair. You won’t sell us on that debate though as we’re fully expecting to see Stroud picking up where he left off before his unfortunate concussion two weeks ago. Prior to injury, Stroud had thrown for at least 274 yards in five straight games, with four of those games over 300 yards. His opponent on Sunday is the Tennessee Titans, a team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in pass yards allowed and near the very bottom in explosive pass plays. Conversely, they’re solid against the run, meaning the Texans may have to throw the football to move the chains. We mentioned the injury to Tank Dell at the start of this breakdown, but outside of the talented receiver, the rest of the offense is about as healthy as they’ve been all season. In a game the Texans need to win, Stroud should recapture his strong passing and get passed this mark.
Kyren Williams – Over 93.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Raise your hand if you thought you’d be betting over 93.5 rushing yards for Kyren Williams when the 2023 season began. Welcome to week 17, where expecting Williams to notch a 100 yard performance feels similar to death and taxes. Williams has been arguably the league’s top running back in the second half of the season, at least in the same conversation as Christian McCaffrey. He’s topped the century mark in five of the last six games, and is averaging nearly 120 yards rushing in that span and a very healthy 5.1 yards per carry on the season. The Rams offensive line is playing really well, and with teams having to account for both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua behind Matthew Stafford’s strong play, the running lanes are nice for Williams. The Rams head to East Rutherford to take on the New York Giants this weekend and while the weather doesn’t look terrible, it’ll certainly be more suited for running than throwing. That’s not great news for a Giants team that ranks in the 30s in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry this season. The Rams are also nearly touchdown favorites in the game as they’ve been playing good football and need a win to stay in the mix in the NFC playoff puzzle. It’s definitely a high total for a running back, the highest of the week in fact, but we’re confident Williams can handle it.
James Cook – Under 67.5 Yards Rushing
Speaking of pretty hot running backs, the Bills James Cook has been doing a lot of heavy lifting for their offense since Joe Brady was given the offensive coordinator role in Buffalo. Cook has notched a 1,000 yard season and is averaging 5 yards per carry, and put on a monstrous display running and receiving against the Cowboys in a huge game. When you look through Cook’s season though, it’s fair and important to point out he’s really taken advantage of weaker opponents and run defenses. When he’s faced stronger units it’s been a little tougher sledding, including the first time he played the Patriots. Since then, the Patriots rushing defense has been downright nasty and essentially impossible to run on. They’re ranked first in the league in most metrics, and have shut down some of the league’s more productive backs over the last two months of the season. Cook will certainly get his opportunities, especially if the Bills do get up big in the game, but in a divisional battle with nothing to play for, the Patriots may be a little feistier than the Bills would like. Look for another strong performance from the Pats run defense, which means Cook should stay under his total.
David Montgomery – Over 53.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We played the two-headed running back monster of the Detroit Lions once this season and they both cashed, so let’s see if we can work some magic with them again on Saturday. The Lions face the Cowboys in one of the more important, and potentially entertaining games of the weekend in Dallas. The Cowboys have been ridiculously good at home, however this is a tough matchup for them. The Cowboys want to use their speed to get after opposing quarterbacks, not necessarily do battle against bruising running games. Additionally, this figures to be a relatively competitive game, so odds are the Cowboys won’t be in full pass rush mode for the entire second half as they have been in several of their home matchups. Perhaps the biggest reason we like Montgomery and the Lions running game this week is a quiet injury that has a big impact on their production. Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins had been a strong anchor on the interior of the Cowboys line, and when you look at the split of their rush defense with him on the field and without it’s pretty significant. Normally you’d say next man up, the problem is, the next man up for the Cowboys is rookie Mazi Smith, who has been horrendous when pressed into duty. Take PFF ratings with a grain of salt, but he’s ranked dead last at his position in run stopping in the league. Simple math here… A really good run stopper replaced with a really bad run stopper, and what do we get? We’re planning on a David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs cover.
Jahmyr Gibbs – Over 50.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
You read above why we like the Lions running backs here so we don’t need to repeat much. Instead let’s just add in a little bit about rookie running back Jamhyr Gibbs. Gibbs is averaging a whopping 5.7 yards per carry and is on pace to hit 1,000 yards rushing with less than 170 carries on the season. No one makes more with limited opportunities than Gibbs who has a run of at least 18 yards in all but three games this season. You probably caught we played his longest rush prop a few weeks ago to an easy cash. That’s certainly in play if you can find it at a sportsbook. We’re going to ride his yardage at a very manageable half century mark. He’s hit that in five straight games and been over 60 in four of those. As long as the Lions aren’t getting blown out, he and Montgomery should both get their share of the Saturday rushing pie.
Jake Ferguson – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)
It’s not just Lions who are set to roar in the Saturday game as the Cowboys should find plenty of their own offensive successes. We’ll start with some players we don’t love in this matchup, and it’s the running backs for Dallas. The Lions have been stingy stopping the run, but unfortunately disastrous against the pass. They were hoping to get Chauncey Gardner-Johnson back this week but that doesn’t look like it will be possible. As a result, they’ll enter the game as one of the worst teams in the league defending the pass, and opposing tight ends. Combine that with Jake Ferguson becoming the second option in the Dallas passing game behind CeeDee Lamb, and it adds up to a big day for the Cowboys tight end. Ferguson has gotten 8 targets in three straight games, and in a matchup where Dallas will likely have to throw, he should see at least that many here. His yardage totals are certainly in play as well, or if you’re reckless you can even parlay them, but we’ll stick with just his reception total for our wager. Saturday football is fun, and will be more enjoyable if Jake Ferguson can snag some passes.
Ty Chandler – Over 59.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
After his first career 100 yard day two weeks ago, the Vikings Ty Chandler crashed back to earth rushing for just 17 yards against the Lions. As we mentioned above, that’s more indicative of what the Lions can do with their run defense than what Minnesota and Chandler can do on the ground. That’s especially true against the Green Bay Packers defense. The Green and Yellow defense has looked a lot like swiss cheese this season, pun intended, and they’re arguably dead last in the league at this point in time. Or at least in the bottom three when you look at DVOA, EPA and advanced metrics. Chandler is a physical back, and even though he’ll share the load with Alexander Mattison, he should get some solid work against the Packers in what’s basically a playoff game for both teams fighting to get in. The Vikings will start Jaren Hall for the second time this season, and one would think they’ll want to give him some support with a solid running game. Against the two poor rush defenses Chandler has faced as a starter he has thrived. Make it a third poor defense, and let’s hope for a third game thriving. Skol.
Patrick Mahomes – Over 21.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Normally you’d say it’s a compliment when you’re giving a quarterback some love for his rushing ability, however in this case it’s more necessity than luxury. Patrick Mahomes has always had the ability to scramble, and has judicially used that to his advantage in his career, mostly on third downs and key moments. Things look a little different this year though as he’s often been forced out of the pocket and had no choice but to tuck and run. His tackles have really struggled forcing Mahomes up in the pocket, and his receivers just haven’t consistently gotten open, or made difficult catches. The Bengals best defensive pressure comes from their edge rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Much like we saw a week ago against the Raiders, it’s very likely Mahomes is going to once again need to use his legs in a game the Chiefs really need to win. Mahomes knows how badly they need to win, and he knows he needs to help make it happen. Let’s see if he’s running for his life and for us, running for a cover on his yardage.
