Last night’s game in Cleveland looked to be a disaster early as the strong winds and rain wreaked havoc on the game. Even with a very shaky start from Hyun Jin Ryu, the Blue Jays simply overwhelmed rookie pitcher Eli Morgan and the Tribe’s middle relievers. So it felt very good to pick up a convincing first 5 innings winner in those elements and move onto the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-29-2021.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians (+110)
Saturday’s MLB card presents plenty of challenges including three double headers – which I continue to avoid – and persistent precipitation in the northeast. So where do I go? Right back to the well with the Toronto Blue Jays. I won’t regurgitate yesterday’s breakdown of the Jays’ strong offensive form but note that they face a left-handed starter today as opposed to the righty last night. This switch is essentially irrelevant for Toronto – and the Indians for that matter – as they have similar splits in terms of wRC+ and slash line. Well, at least their splits were nearly equal before last night’s explosion.
Once again, weather will play a role in this afternoon’s rematch. However, Mother Nature’s impacts should be limited to wind and colder temps without the blowing mist like last night. A couple takeaways from watching that game: 1) fielding was very tricky with the constant 20+ wind coming in from right center field, and 2) the Blue Jays exhibited enough solid contact to smack six doubles into the gusts. I’m not saying that the winds did not affect the Jays – just ask Vlad Guerrero – as much as that lineup powered through the conditions and did damage via line drives.
R. Stripling (R) vs. S. Hentges (L)
Toronto calls on Ross Stripling to lead his club to back-to-back wins after they took two of three from the Yankees. The 31-year-old righty has not been the most reliable arm in the rotation but appears to have regained some confidence after working out of the bullpen last week, delivering 7 innings of shutout baseball against Tampa Bay. In fact, that was his only outing in which he did not give up 2+ runs. Stripling has an opportunity this afternoon to build some momentum going into the summer against this Cleveland offense, though I must admit that I am still on the fence with him today. There is something about his 43.2% hard hit and 13.7% barrel rates that concerns me, even against Cleveland’s subpar lineup.
Another Rookie Starter for the Indians
Instead, I want to focus on Toronto’s clear strength – offense – and how it pairs with Cleveland’s pitching. Rookie Sam Hentges will make his fourth big league start and hopes to pick up career win #2. His aggregated stat lines from the three previous outings is very complicated: 11.1 IP, 14 K, 10 BB, 14 H, 9 R. To a degree, I expect his strikeouts and walks to be moderated given that the Blue Jays strike out the third least in the majors (22.2%) and walk the fifth least (7.9%). These boys like to put the ball in play! Though last night they walked 6 times and struck out 7 times.
Hentges shares some similarities with fellow rookie Eli Morgan, especially when it comes to struggling with command. However, Sam’s 43.8% ground ball rate is a step above Eli’s even if he yields quite a bit of hard contact (40.6% hard hit, 12.5% barrel rates). His inclination toward ground balls is especially important considering that opponents are putting 20.8% of his fly balls into the seats. But the wind should help mitigate some of Hentges’ weak spot, even if his 1.97 WHIP spells trouble against the Toronto lineup.
Strength on Strength
In terms of repertoire, the 24-year-old is a three-pitch lefty who relies heavily on a mid-90s fastball alongside a slider/curve combo of secondary pitches. The curveball has been his most successful pitch to date – and the only plus pitch in his arsenal. Hentges has yet to truly command the slider and has gotten into plenty of trouble with the fastball. Bottom line – his curve must be on this afternoon if he wants to have a shot at lasting five innings and being in line for the win. And that is further emphasized by a trio of hitters in Guerrero, Semien, and Grichuk that feasts on fastballs. But as good as Sam’s curve is, nearly the entire Toronto lineup hits the curveball at least satisfactorily.
Interestingly enough, Manger Terry Francona has an excused absence this weekend to attend a wedding in Rhode Island. This puts the burden of juggling the pitching staff on bench coach DeMarlo Hale. Most likely, the Cleveland relief unit will take the reins for 4 or 5 innings today depending on Hentges’ effectiveness in the elements. That challenge is made easier by the fact that this above-average group is in good form: 3.59 FIP/3.78 xFIP in the seven-day period leading into Friday’s contest.
Francona threw the front end of his bullpen at the Jays after Morgan exited yesterday, essentially conserving his sturdy relievers for this weekend. Plus they have a crucial double header against the White Sox on Monday. This positions their well-rested core to squash any late-inning rallies posed by Toronto. Middle reliever Jean Carlos Mejia and back-end stalwarts Bryan Shaw, Emmanuel Clase, and James Karinchak could make it tough for the Blue Jays to add to their run total later in the game.
WAGER: Blue Jays Team Total Over 4.5 -110
ALTERNATIVE: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -1/2 @ +100
So we have strong winds blowing in at Progressive Field with Cleveland’s shutdown bullpen guys are ready to go today. And here I am playing a team total over after Toronto’s perfect storm of offense last night? Yep, that’s right. This decision making might be why the ROI with my featured handicaps sits below 4%. But this is all about jumping on a very hittable Sam Hentges early, then putting the Tribe into another tough position requiring early bullpen action.
Plus it’s the ol’ eye test that helped push me onto the team total over versus laying -130 on the game, or even laying the hook for even money in the first 5 innings. I truly question what Ross Stripling brings to the table in these conditions despite facing an unassuming Cleveland offense. The strong winds lured me into isolating Toronto’s offense against Hentges rather than depending on Stripling, who also has had a hard time not getting thumped this season.
Around the Horn
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