San Francisco’s offense is a bit of a head scratcher. When you put it in the context of a full MLB season, hot or cold streaks for teams, offenses, pitchers, etc. are just a routine part of the 162-game grind. Tyler Beede did a phenomenal job of scratching out nearly 7 innings with minimal damage, keeping his team alive and letting the bats get it done. I banked on Beede notching a respectable start and he did not disappoint.
The +155 win with SF was greatly appreciated for the bankroll. It also exposed a continuing weak link for the Milwaukee Brewers: their bullpen. (More on that in a minute.) I’ll credit my exposure to the clean air in the Swiss Alps for our current handicapping form: 3 days back from the break, 3 games, 3 winners (yes, that’s a joke). The other shoe is eventually going to drop on this small run, but I’ve got one play on Monday’s MLB slate to go with some potential live betting…
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Can’t Start, Can’t Close: Braves -109
To be blunt about it, the Brewers are struggling to find wins right now. They’re 3-7 in their last 10 games and had lived and died in the late-game this weekend. Their bullpen pitched 12 innings in the 3-game series against the Giants, giving up 16 earned runs and losing 2 games. To be totally fair, the Braves’ relievers weren’t the sharpest in their series sweep against the Padres; they worked 8 innings and gave up 5 runs.
Both of these bullpens have been in the business of making things interesting. And if you’re a fan or a bettor behind either team, that’s usually not the best way to ride out the end of a game. In their current form, however, the Braves’ relievers have been more successful in squashing opponents’ run production despite offering a similar amount of opportunities. This sort of thing generally corrects itself but Milwaukee’s trend is a tough one to jump in front of right now.
Gotta Start Somewhere
Max Fried doesn’t inspire the most confidence in bettors, but you do have to respect his steadiness this season. He’s started 18 games and logged 98.2 innings, giving the Braves an average of about 5 innings/start. That’s reasonable for a low-end rotation guy that typically yields 2-4 runs in his outings. He has been pushed for 6 innings without too much damage at times.
Fried’s 1.41 WHIP and 54.1% ground ball rate tells me that he gives batters chances to make contact. Despite the high ground ball rate and decent 36.5% hard contact rate, his mistakes get punished. 21.3% of the fly balls he surrenders leave the yard. Milwaukee has the ability to take advantage of this, even if they aren’t fully dialed in right now. That can change in a hurry with a 2-homer outing from Fried tonight.
Since Fried doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in shutting down the Brewers it’s gotta be the other guy on the mound, right? Adrian Houser gets his fourth straight start for Milwaukee after coming out of the bullpen. When you look at his season-long metrics, Houser looks comparable to Fried (1.45 WHIP, 4.01 ERA/3.65 xFIP, 54.5% ground ball rate, etc.). I think you have to conservatively handicap a “happy medium” between the full-season numbers and what he’s done in his 3 starts since June 26th.
Houser’s recent resume as a starter is not impressive. In 11 innings, he’s given up 11 earned runs, 3 home runs, 17 hits, and 7 walks. His WHIP has ballooned to 2.18 and average against is a lofty .354. 61.2% of contact are either line drives or fly balls, with 27.3% of the flies clearing the fence. 3 games is statistically insignificant, so I’ve tempered these numbers in my handicapping process.
No Shame Backing the Hot Squad
These teams are currently going in opposite directions. I am not a guy to fade or follow a club merely because of their win or losing streaks. It’s the metrics behind why these teams are winning or losing that matters. The Brewers’ bullpen is a mess and tonight they throw a guy on the hill that should struggle to get them 5 full innings.
Both offenses have the personnel to put runs on the board. The Braves are currently much more efficient in producing runs from opportunities, which is the name of the game. Fried is somewhat of a wild card, but I still think he will outproduce Houser and get more mileage to spare the Braves’ relievers. Can the Braves punish Houser like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Seattle did? You bet your ass they can.
