Divisional Weekend Review:
After an eight week run, it was bound to happen, and we’re still sulking over a disappointing 2-4 prop weekend. In reality, it was looking like it might end up 1-5 as Lamar Jackson would have been in throwing mode playing catch up against the Bills threatening his passing yardage under. His concussion at the start of the fourth quarter solidified that win, although it’s a little less fun winning that way. A win is a win though so we’ll take our 2-4 and move on to the Championship Round.
Championship Round Preview:
With only two games, the prop betting has to become more selective, unless you simply want to shotgun a bunch of bets to see what happens. We’re sticking with our plan that guided us to a very profitable NFL season of player props and going only with plays we really like. That amounts to just three bets. Thin to win, let’s get it.
Our Picks:
Davante Adams – Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)
Death, taxes and Davante Adams making plays were the certainties of 2020. The Packers and Aaron Rodgers are taking another crack at the NFC Championship in hopes of riding their high-scoring offense to the Super Bowl. While Green Bay has been balanced throughout the season, Adams is the clear cut superstar of the skill positions. Rodgers looks to Adams in big situations, and playing to get to the Super Bowl would certainly qualify as a big spot. Even though the Buccaneers have been a little weaker against the run over the last month or so, they should be able to do enough to slow down Aaron Jones and the running game of the Pack. With Rodgers forced to throw, Adams will get a lot of targets and opportunities. In a game that is very balanced for both teams, Adams is the one clear advantage as he’s flat out better than the cornerbacks and secondary of the Bucs. It won’t surprise the BetCrushers if he ends up catching 10 balls in this game
Mike Evans – Under 64.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
In a game that could be physical and grinding you love having a guy like Mike Evans playing wide receiver for your team. While Evans relishes challenges like this, we’re not so sure that he’ll find a lot of success in the passing game. Throughout the season there were a few games where Evans absolutely balled out and put up huge numbers. Consistently speaking, he actually wasn’t a great performer more often than not. In a cold weather game, Bruce Arians will need to rely on his powerful running backs to attack the Packers where they are vulnerable, in the running game. J’aire Alexander should see a lot of Evans and has done a nice job slowing down top receivers all year. We’ll keep our fingers crossed that this isn’t one of those monster games for Evans and fade him here in a tough spot.
Josh Allen – Over 31.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
If you caught the Bills-Ravens Divisional game you may have noticed Josh Allen didn’t really scramble and ended up with only three yards rushing for the game. Is it crazy to assume the script will be completely flipped in their matchup against the Chiefs? We’re taking Allen’s over rushing yardage total for a few reasons. First, the Chiefs are going to be in a lot of coverage defenses. If Allen takes what the defense gives him, he should have plenty of 6 and 7 yard scrambles available throughout the game if he wants them. Second, the gameplan from Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has been very plain in the first two round of the playoffs. Expect to see a little of the attack we saw that had some creativity and balance that was abandoned recently. That might be a little more of running back Devin Singletary, but it should mean some scripted runs for Allen as well. The third and final logic here is that Allen, and most quarterbacks run in huge situations. As we stated above, getting your team to the Super Bowl is about as big as it gets so run JA run.
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