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Handicapping the 2026 Opening Day Slate

Opening Day 2023

The MLB regular season opener between the Yankees and Giants is about 48 hours away. Our thoughts are limited on that matchup, which is why this is all about Thursday, March 26th. In customary fashion, the BetCrushers have you covered with a 2026 Opening Day coast-to-coast breakdown starting in Queens and ending in the Pacific Northwest. There’s been plenty of anticipation and preparation so if you haven’t caught our division previews, head over to our MLB page or click the links in the team names below. I’ll be hitting the road early on Friday, so our MLB Morning Breakdown series will return next week with perspectives on key matchups and handicapping insights throughout the season. Enjoy Opening Day!

Note: The information contained below is up to date at the time of publishing Monday evening. Starting pitchers, injuries, and betting lines are subject to change.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ NEW YORK METS – 1:15 ET (NYM -130, 6.5)

P Skenes (R) vs. F Peralta (R)

Notable Injuries – N/A

Opening Day 2026 kicks off at Citi Field where two new-ish look lineups square up against bona fide aces on the Peacock national broadcast. Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes is elite no matter which way you slice it, as recently put on display in the World Baseball Classic. His filthy sub-3.00 arsenal will be put to the test against a Pete Alonso-less offense that reloaded with Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, and Marcus Semien. Although we expect a small downtick from the Mets’ top five offense of a year ago, this group is still very potent and is at full strength. On that topic, shortstop Francisco Lindor appears to be good to go despite being one of several players to suffer a hamate injury early in camp.

Skenes’ history against the Mets is a short, though quite successful one. No surprise there. As for 2025, the main reason why the 23-year-old ended his award-winning campaign with a 10-10 record is lack of run support as opposed to the bullpen blowing games. Although the Pittsburgh relief unit is a notch behind New York’s, the high-leverage group held down by Dennis Santana and Gregory Soto is very capable. Otherwise, their relievers have upside that come with questions yet to be answered. Opening Day is arguably as good of a time to face Paul Skenes as any, considering he is less likely to go 6+ innings than in the heart of the season.

Leveling the Playing Field

Offseason acquisition Freddy Peralta gives the Mets a quality veteran presence atop the rotation. Repeating last year’s 2.70 ERA is unlikely on the heels of a .243 BABIP though. We’ve seen this out of Freddy in the past and he typically settles back into his mid-3.00s profile the next season. He has another plus defense behind him, especially up the middle with Lindor, Semien, and Robert. And the bullpen is on the right side of average, though key newcomers Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are not without their questions. Those two plus Brooks Raley form what could be a substantial leverage group.

Don’t count out this Pirates position player group after gaining some extra beef this offseason. Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, and Brandon Lowe bring much-needed power to the lowest slugging lineup (.350) of 2025. They may still be a bottom five offense by the time September rolls around but we still expect a substantial 4-7% improvement. The line on this game ranges from Mets -115 to -130, although my guess is the favorite flips on the first 5 inning line with the Skenes advantage weighing heavier. We’ll see when those markets open up.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS – 2:10 ET (MIL -200, 8.5)

S Smith (R) vs. J Misiorowski (R)

Notable Injuries

  • B Baldwin (CHW – UTL)
  • K Teel (CHW – C)

An interleague Great Lakes matchup of great disparity goes off second on Opening Day. Granted, the White Sox exceeded their 2025 expectations to our pleasure while kicking the tires on a ton of fresh talent. Although the position player side seemed to bear more fruit than the pitchers. Chicago’s offense and fielding improved noticeably with manager Will Venable guiding this transitioning roster. This year, they’ll do it without enigmatic center fielder Luis Robert Jr. who was traded to the Mets for utility player Luisangel Acuna, one option for replacing Robert in center along with Brooks Baldwin.

This winter, Chicago added Japanese spark plug Munetaka Murakami and outfielder Austin Hays for a little more pop. Neither are particularly great with their gloves but should fuel another step forward offensively. Their first challenge as White Sox is right-hander Jacob Misiorowski. The young prospect earned the Opening Day start with a promising MLB debut season. Well, Freddie Peralta being out of the picture is the main reason. Regardless, the 23-year-old has serious velocity and filthy secondaries; walks are the weak spot of his young career.

What shapes up to be a less potent Brewers lineup still holds a firm edge over Chicago’s offense. Skepticism is justified when it comes to Andrew Vaughn and Brice Turang sustaining their big seasons. But I’ll be the first to admit struggling to properly quantify what this franchise can do with limited resources. At least they get a more favorable matchup against right-hander Shane Smith compared to Carlos Rodon on opening day last year. Shane gets low-to-mid 4.00 projections after his debut yielded a 3.81 ERA and 4.10 FIP/4.23 xFIP over 29 starts.

A High Price To Pay?

Chicago’s bullpen is not a huge liability, especially at full strength and as supplemented by Seranthony Dominguez. However, the relief pitching edge still lies with Milwaukee’s deeper unit. Jared Koenig and Aaron Ashby setting up Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill gives Pat Murphy plenty of leverage options over a long season. Laying 2/1 with the Brewers is a bit salty for my taste, and the take back isn’t high enough. Chicago’s path to the upset lies in Shane Smith working into the 6th inning while Munetaka Murakami and Andrew Benintendi carry their hot bats from Spring Training into American Family Field.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ CHICAGO CUBS – 2:20 ET (CHC -205 , 8.5)

C Cavalli (R) vs. M Boyd (L)

Notable Injuries

  • T Austin (CHC – 1B/OF)
  • S Suzuki (CHC – DH/OF)

Another lopsided matchup at an NL Central park, eh? You have a visiting team projected to finish dead last in their division visiting the Friendly Confines to play a club expected to win their division. Just parlay the Brewers and Cubs, right? Not so fast. The Nationals have a lineup with young, proven talent as well as plenty of unproven talent. Despite being sellers of this club both this season and the last, we’ve adjusted for modest upgrades to both their offense and fielding. That’s enough improvement to pull each aspect out of the basement and ahead of several other clubs.

The Ol’ One-Game Sample

But the harsh reality that wasn’t necessarily tackled in the offseason is Washington’s brutal performance against left-handed pitching. Dylan Crews and Jacob Young have enough upside to move the needle in this respect. But Crews did not make the Big League squad and Wood really struggled in Spring Training. Veteran southpaw Matthew Boyd gets the Opening Day honors for Chicago after successfully returning to the rotation in 2025. The 35-year-old posted the highest innings count since 2019 with a 3.21 ERA and 3.65 FIP/4.22 xFIP. That shades this year’s outlook up towards 4.00. But, again, this is a favorable matchup if Boyd takes care of Washington’s left-handed hitters (e.g., Wood, Abrams, Lile).

Right-hander Cade Cavalli counters for the Nats with intentions to finally put a full season together. The 27-year-old former top prospect showed a live arsenal in his second-half return from extended injury. Plus he put together four quality outings in Spring Training. Opposing him is a substantial Cubbies lineup that lost Kyle Tucker but gained Alex Bregman. In the big picture, Chicago should still hit lefties and righties very well. That’s even with a firm downgrade to our projections and not having Seiya Suzuki due to a minor knee injury. Plus the Cubs create additional edges running the bases that can stress the lackluster Nationals defense. Conditions can change in a hurry this time of year but early afternoon weather on the North Side is tracking decently.

Even if the starting pitching delta is not extreme, the bullpens are in different classes altogether. Washington is doing what they need to do as a 70-win team. Basically throw a bunch of young relievers into the fire and see who can stand the heat. They’re building a team for 2027 and beyond. So far, Clayton Beeter has answered the call for them. Chicago doesn’t figure to have a top tier unit; average or slightly better is a fair target. It was essentially rebuilt with solid veteran free agents around Daniel Palencia, their flamethrower with a wicked slider. As opposed to White Sox/Brewers, laying 2/1 with the Cubs or, better yet, working an associated run line is not necessarily over valued. Maybe my numbers are too skewed against the Nationals to start the season though.

MINNESOTA TWINS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES – 3:05 ET (BAL -155, 8.5)

J Ryan (R) vs. T Rogers (L)

Notable Injuries

  • J Holliday (BAL – 2B)
  • H Kjerstad (BAL – OF)
  • J Westburg (BAL – INF)

Two teams happily put their 2025 campaigns in the rear view mirror as the stripped-down Twins visit the Orioles. Most of Minnesota’s divestitures came at last year’s trade deadline as names like Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, and Griffin Jax were shipped off for new blood like James Outman, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel. Unfortunately, Pablo Lopez will miss the 2026 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last month. Instead, Joe Ryan will lead the Twins on Opening Day for the second time in his career. The 29-year-old righty is a rock-solid sub-4.00 starter whose pitches have enough action to be effective without overwhelming velocity. Command is key in generating upper-20% strikeout rates on an annual basis with a career 4.86 K/BB ratio.

Ryan will have his hands full with a talented Orioles lineup that picked up Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso this offseason. Unfortunately, their injury luck has not been much better headed into the 2026 campaign. Starting infielders Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg are out for Opening Day, as is outfielder Heston Kjerstad. Second baseman Holliday will return sooner than Westburg, who is recovering from a partially torn UCL. Both are very effective hitters against right-handed pitchers like Joe Ryan though. Regardless, Baltimore’s lineup gets a significant bump up in our adjustments, potentially getting back around their 2023 levels. Not quite as explosive as 2024 but much better than last year.

The same cannot be said about Minnesota’s offense, who may tread water while sorting out their roster. It’s a fairly balanced lineup that needs a kickstart from Luke Keashcall’s hit tool and speed on the base paths. New manager Derek Shelton was claimed from Pittsburgh’s changing of the guard to put guys like Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Kody Clemens, and Austin Martin to the test. Many of these hitters have shown promise as Big Leaguers but lack sustained success. But the early looks in Spring Training have not been stellar among that group.

Riding the Wave

O’s left-hander Trevor Rogers pulled off an eye-popping comeback that rivaled his 2021 breakout with Miami. A right knee injury delayed his 2025 campaign that eventually turned into an 18-start, 1.81-ERA gem with a quality 2.82 FIP/3.64 xFIP. The .226 BABIP calls for a fair amount of regression considering the 48.4% hard contact rate is partially mitigated by so much ground ball contact. Rogers will give the Twins plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play. Turning that into base runners and runs via disruption on the base paths is the path forward for this overlooked lineup.

Despite the significant outflow of talent from the Twins bullpen, it isn’t that far from being league-average. Submariner Taylor Rogers isn’t the prototypical closer for a contending team – which Minnesota certainly is not – but the sinker/slider veteran is still funky enough to be effective. He’s one option among the Kody Funderburk, Justin Topa, and Cole Sands contingent. They’re a decent leverage group alongside a shakier set of middle relievers.

Baltimore has enough questions among their middle relievers to hold the bullpen around average. One potential key difference between the O’s bullpen and Minnesota’s is the potency of their back end, especially after adding flamethrower Ryan Helsley. Whether they get prime Helsley this season has yet to be determined after a rough 2025 (4.50 ERA, 4.14 FIP/3.79 xFIP). The betting line speaks to the lower likelihood of Minnesota putting it together in game #1 against a southpaw who just turned in a 1.81 ERA. A better price above +130 could get me to take the bait though.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ HOUSTON ASTROS – 4:10 ET (HOU -190, 8.5)

J Soriano (R) vs. H Brown (R)

Notable Injuries

  • J Hader (HOU – RP)
  • J Pena (HOU – SS)

Starting off the four-game 4:00-ish window is an AL West contest of the haves and have-nots. It’s also one of only two Opening Day divisional matchups. The Angels are stuck in baseball purgatory with an aging position player corps and interesting rotation. Hard-throwing ground baller Jose Soriano will take the mound for new manager Kurt Suzuki as a quality sub-4.00 righty. Houston’s lineup leans heavily to the right side with Yordan Alvarez and returning outfielder Joey Loperfido spicing things up as lefties.

Unfortunately, Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena begins the season on the IL with a fractured finger. Everything about the 28-year-old is plus: hitting, fielding, and base running. Carlos Correa is a suitable short-term substitute offensively, though he yields quite a bit in the field to Pena at this point. This is where Isaac Paredes helps Correa shift from third base to shortstop as Houston banks on first baseman Christian Walker not losing any more ground from a poor 2025 campaign.

The gap between these two lineups is much closer when squaring off against right-handed pitching. Granted, Houston has a tougher bullpen with a better selection of left-handers even without closer Josh Hader. Both starters should be primed to pitch into or through the sixth inning barring rough performances. On the Astros’ side, Hunter Brown took another step forward in 2025 with a career-best 185.1 innings pitched, 2.43 ERA, and 3.14 FIP/3.19 xFIP. His arsenal is legit and he pitches deep into games; 22 of last year’s 31 starts lasted 6.0+ innings.

Enough Horses to Keep Up?

Los Angeles hopes to avoid another slow start and rough finish offensively, although they’ll do it without Tyler Ward in 2026. In his place, Josh Lowe comes in from Tampa Bay to take over left field. Even as a left-handed hitter, Lowe represents a firm dropoff against righties and is likely to be platooned with a lefty starter on the mound. The Angels struggled to get runners on base last year and that issue could continue this season, reducing the potency of their lineup’s sneaky power.

Although we project Houston to take another step back in the full-season outlook, they have enough edges when stacked up against the Angels. When it comes to game #1 of the 2026 season, -190 is a bit heavy regardless of those edges. But the take back needs to be north of +170 for me to get involved.

BOSTON RED SOX @ CINCINNATI REDS – 4:10 ET (BOS -160, 8.5)

G Crochet (L) vs. A Abbott (L)

Notable Injuries

  • R Gonzalez (BOS – INF)
  • H Greene (CIN – SP)

I typically do not list starting pitchers as Notable Injuries unless they were the presumptive Opening Day starter. Hunter Greene is that guy for the Reds. But he’s on the shelf for several months after undergoing surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. Cincinnati passes the torch to the hotly-debated Andrew Abbott, whose Spring Training has not gone well whatsoever. The debate is polarized between the eye test and what the underlying numbers say about Abbott. Regardless, the 26-year-old lefty has steadily increased workload over three seasons in the Majors while ratcheting down his ERA. Last year’s 2.87 ERA came with a 3.66 FIP/4.31 xFIP and a solid 3.47 K/BB ratio. Yet his projections range from upper-3.00s to mid-4.00s.

Abbott may catch a slight break without utility infielder Romy Gonzalez in the lineup. He’s been a lefty killer for them, though new addition Willson Contreras helps plenty in that sense. We cited a few reasons behind our offensive downgrade for the Red Sox this season in our preview. As for the weather, Cincy is looking at an unseasonably warm day with a crisp crosswind from right to left. That certainly won’t hurt their cause. Plus key hitters Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Willson Contreras, and Trevor Story showed good form this spring.

A Recipe For Run Scoring?

Boston ace Garrett Crochet was one of the best in the biz last season, notching a career-low 2.89 ERA across 205.1 innings. Delivering a 31.3% strikeout rate at 6.4 innings/start is ace material for any staff. Manager Alex Cora has him on a six-day rotation to manage workload, so no worries about his starts being spread out this spring. Whether we see sub-3.00 performance on Opening Day is tough to gauge from his bumpy, less strikeout-centered Spring Training outings. As many veteran pitchers will tell you, that’s the time to test and experiment.

The Reds’ utter failure to hit southpaws last season should see a correction in 2026. Internal improvement comes from Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain – whose shoulder looks fully healthy – and top prospect Sal Stewart. Plus old friend Eugenio Suarez is back in town, albeit off his 2018 & 2019 peak in the Queen City. Is rising up from the bottom of the lefty-hitting barrel enough to keep pace with Boston’s lineup? The advantage bar gives the impression that the gap is not huge. But this seems more a matter of how well Garrett Crochet’s stuff is tuned up on Opening Day.

The bullpen gap is accentuated in a full strength scenario. Boston’s variety of southpaws is headlined by their ageless closer Aroldis Chapman. One of my old favorites is still dealing on an elite level at the ripe age of 38. Yet it’s the support crew of Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten, and Danny Coulombe that tip the scales away from Cincy. But they did upgrade the middle relief slots with the veteran righty/lefty duo of Pierce Johnson and Brock Burke. So this isn’t a totally lopsided aspect either. It’s Abbott vs. Crochet that gives Boston the role of heavy road favorite that may or may not be justified.

DETROIT TIGERS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES – 4:10 ET (DET -140, 7.5)

T Skubal (L) vs. N Pivetta (R)

Notable Injuries

  • T Sweeney (DET – SS)
  • J Adam (SDP – RP)

As if there was any question, reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal gets the nod for the Tigers in San Diego. Prized free agent starting pitcher Framber Valdez joined him this winter but certainly knew who the ace was when signing up. Four straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons punctuated by a 2.39 in 2024 and 2.21 in 2025 catches mid-2.00s projections. Sounds like another stellar campaign ahead, as further substantiated as the favorite to win the Cy Young again. Nothing is for certain though, as the 29-year-old’s ability to stay healthy and deliver 190+ innings is a key aspect of his award-winning success.

San Diego’s lineup is largely the same as last year’s with minor changes in depth and adding right-handed hitter Miguel Andujar. He supports their weaker side against lefties like Tarik Skubal as Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts reach their mid-30s. There is a lot to like with the offense otherwise, especially dynamic outfielders Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. Most importantly, they are healthy and ready to roll for Opening Day. Despite the minor roster changes and year-to-year adjustments, we view the Padres’ 2026 outlook more or less as a lateral move across all four main areas. That’s not a bad diagnosis by any means.

A Call To Arms

Joe Musgrove’s delayed start from Tommy John surgery recovery and Michael King’s Spring Training struggles put veteran Nick Pivetta on the bump for new manager Craig Stammen. The 33-year-old righty delivered a career-best season for the Padres in several regards, including 181.2 innings and 2.87 ERA. Headwinds from a very low .235 BABIP correct his outlook to a quality sub-4.00 range though. Even with injuries holding back several relievers like setup man Jason Adam, San Diego boasts having one of the MLB’s best bullpens. Their high-leverage threesome of elite closer Mason Miller, southpaw Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada is arguably the best back end group. Plus they should get Adam back into the fold before too long.

Nick Pivetta catches a Tigers lineup with a handful of quality left-handed hitters like Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, and Rookie of the Year candidate Kevin McGonigle. Incumbent shortstop Trey Sweeney’s injured shoulder – and poor 2025 results – paved the way for one of the hottest prospects to make the squad. But it’s not like the 21-year-old back-doored himself into the lineup. McGonigle produced like an established Major Leaguer this spring, earning his way onto the Opening Day roster.

Detroit has a very capable bullpen that could catch a break if Tarik Skubal comes out of the gates with a quality start. Their bullpen is quite capable with incumbents Will Vest, Tyler Holton, and Kyle Finnegan. Adding Kenley Jansen as closer was an interesting move as Vest is arguably their best reliever. However, manager AJ Hinch loves to use him in a less-defined role to deploy as needed. All things considered, Skubal tilts the scales heavily towards Detroit with many other areas being closely contested. Will there be a more advantageous first 5 inning line given the circumstances?

TAMPA BAY RAYS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – 4:15 ET (TBR -125, 7.5)

D Rasmussen (R) vs. M Liberatore (L)

Notable Injuries

  • T Walls (TBR – SS)
  • L Nootbar (STL – OF)

It’s been decades since the Cardinals have gone through a period like this. They’ve stripped the position player group down to homegrown talent still under team control. Which, by the way, is anything but a scrap heap. St. Louis still boasts a talented core anchored by Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, and defensive wizard Masyn Winn. Not to be confused with The Wizard, the 24-year-old Winn is one of the best fielding shortstops up there with Bobby Witt Jr.

As for Opening Day, the Cardinals are without Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Brendan Donovan. Donovan and Contreras were key hitters against right-handed pitchers like Drew Rasmussen. The reality facing St. Louis is diminished potency against righties while Lars Nootbar recovers from foot surgery and top prospect JJ Wetherholt gets a foothold in The Show. Fortunately, left-handed hitters Gorman and Burleson have been in midseason form this spring. That’s in contrast to the struggles of Herrera and Jordan Walker, who manager Oli Marmol needs to step up and produce in his fourth MLB season.

Starting Pitcher Showdown

They’ll square up against Tampa Bay’s rejuvenated starter catching sub-4.00 projections after a strong recovery season. (2.76 ERA, 3.84 FIP/3.72 xFIP) Three elbow surgeries couldn’t keep the righty down, though he will face headwinds from a .246 BABIP and diminished swing-and-miss. The Rays’ bullpen should be one of the better groups in the Majors despite losing closer Pete Fairbanks. Midseason acquisitions Griffin Jax and Bryan Baker pick up plenty of slack to keep them whole. The St. Louis bullpen shares the closer by committee philosophy via Riley O’Brien, JoJo Romero, and Matt Svanson. That’s a quality trio that still yields to Tampa Bay’s leverage group. Being at full strength lessens the disparity between the two.

Cardinals’ Opening Day starter Matthew Liberatore transitioned into the rotation successfully in 2025. You could do a lot worse these days than 4.21 ERA and 4.03 FIP/4.31 xFIP. That serves as a solid platform to project the broad-arsenal pitch-to-contact southpaw. The 26-year-old has been good in Spring Training, which bodes well when stacked up against a Rays lineup generally deficient against lefties. I say generally because Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have plenty of game against southpaws. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash is no stranger to heavy platoon usage, likely using Ben Williamson and Jonny DeLuca to smooth out the unfavorable splits of former Reds Gavin Lux and Jake Fraley. As a rule of thumb, avoid making a habit of overspending on average-ish teams. That said, this could be a good spot with a price less than -125.

TEXAS RANGERS @ PHILDELPHIA PHILLIES – 4:15 ET (PHI -155, 8.5)

N Eovaldi (R) vs. C Sanchez (L)

Notable Injuries

  • O Kerkering (PHI – RP)

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Christopher Sanchez is one of the best starting pitcher matchups on Opening Day. The Rangers’ starter was in the midst of a career season before a rotator cuff strain ended his year. Add in postseason sports hernia surgery and the 36-year-old is as good as new. Well, you know the adage about Father Time…and Eovaldi is not immune from his effects. As for Thursday afternoon, the right-hander is fairly well dialed in from camp and has the skillset to go 6 innings even against a quality lineup like Philadelphia’s. Nathan catches sub-4.00 projections as a quality ground ball pitcher who gets enough swing-and-miss out of his broad arsenal.

Phillies’ southpaw Christopher Sanchez shares most of those qualities except he does it even better. He is seven years younger and has an extremely live sinker/slider/changeup combination. Plus being a left-hander plays very well into what should continue to be Texas’ weaker side of the lineup. The Rangers were a bottom five offense against lefties last season but should be improved via both internal and external sources. And it does not hurt that key right-handed hitters Jake Burger, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, and Andrew McCutcheon have been smoking the ball this spring.

Our adjustments to Philly’s lineup were firmly downward once again this winter. But I was straightforward about last year’s similar call being dead wrong as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber beat their projected regression to help maintain a high-quality lineup. The projected falloff for 2026 still leaves this lineup as top ten or better against right-handed pitching. This should present a stiff challenge for Eovaldi. Weather in the City of Brotherly Love looks very nice with a firm breeze out to right center. Also worth noting is both are quality running teams, although Texas received a small downtick in our outlook due to losing Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia this winter.

Tradeoffs and Line Value

There are clear tradeoffs between these teams beyond the lineups and starting pitchers. Texas’ defense is one of the best out there while Philly’s improved simply by swapping Nick Castellanos for former Ranger Adolis Garcia. But they’re still in different tiers, to say the least. There is also a massive disparity when evaluating the bullpens. From top to bottom, Philadelphia’s carries a wealth of sub-4.00 arms in addition to a wicked trio of Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, and elite closer Jhoan Duran. Brad Keller was brought into the leverage group on a two-year deal, though I’m willing to speculate that Kerkering ends up as the more effective right-hander throughout the season. As for now, Orion is on the IL.

That’s not to say that Texas’ back end duo of Robert Garcia and Chris Martin lack high-leverage chops. The Phillies don’t want to see these two in the 8th and 9th innings, signaling a tighter game or being on the losing end as a healthy favorite. The rest of the unit is fine, just not nearly as stocked with arms that matter in the later innings. How much confidence do you have in the Sanchez vs. Eovaldi matchup to lay the -155?

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS – 8:30 ET (LAD -230, 9.5)

Z Gallen (R) vs. Y Yamamoto (R)

Notable Injuries

  • L Gurriel Jr. (ARI – OF)
  • J Martinez (ARI – RP)
  • AJ Puk (ARI – RP)
  • T Edman (LAD – UTL)
  • E Phillips (LAD – RP)

Your back-to-back World Champions commence their title defense in the Peacock primetime game at Dodger Stadium. It should not be a surprise that this continues to be one of the strongest and most complete lineups in the MLB. I’ll leave the payroll thing alone since that will get hammered into oblivion during the collective bargaining process this fall. This spring has been a little different for the boys in blue. Mookie Betts is well and Kyle Tucker is on the roster, replacing the disappointing Michael Conforto. These two factors alone are significant enough to offset some potential declines from their aging stars.

Familiar foe Zac Gallen opposes them on the heels of a tough season marked by a career-worst 21.5% strikeout rate, 4.83 ERA, and 4.50 FIP. That made for a really poor platform season heading into free agency. So he eventually re-upped with Arizona on a one-year deal. Arizona’s rotation is full of injury concerns and lacks meaningful depth, making Gallen’s reliability more important than his low-4.00s projections. Los Angeles has hit Zac very well going back to 2023, yielding 3+ runs in five of his last six starts against the Dodgers. Their bullpen has a few bright spots. Problem is, two of them are on the IL to start the season: the lefty/righty closer duo of AJ Puk and Justin Martinez. L.A.’s bullpen is missing at least one key arm but their depth – as supplemented this winter with closer Edwin Diaz – is significantly better.

Raking Their Way Through the Season

Arizona dodged a big scare with Corbin Carroll’s Spring Training hand injury. It’s no breaking news that the former unanimous NL Rookie of the Year is a crucial piece of the Diamondbacks’ potent top half of the lineup. The position player corps is by far their strong suit…as long as you don’t need to dig too far into its depth. This is apparent in the Lourdes Gurriel Jr. situation where an Alek Thomas/Tim Tawa type of replacement gives up a good amount offensively with some consolation in the field.

We’ve marked down the D-backs’ offense to account for some regression among their All-Stars. Also lost from last year’s full-season statistics are the half seasons’ work of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. Despite all that, Arizona’s lineup still figures to be plus overall and especially so against right-handed pitching. Aside from one start in his two-year MLB career, the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been phenomenal against them. Four of those five starts went 6+ innings and no more than 2 runs were scored against him. The 27-year-old righty’s command is on point, earning him low-3.00s projections behind tons of ground balls and plenty of swing-and-miss. As always, price is king when betting the MLB. -230 is salty but the price may be right for some.

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ SEATTLE MARINERS – 10:10 ET (SEA -170, 6.5)

T Bibee (R) vs. L Gilbert (R)

Notable Injuries

  • H Gaddis (CLE – RP)
  • G Valera (CLE – OF)
  • JP Crawford (SEA – SS)

Opening Day 2026 concludes with a nightcap between AL playoff teams with much different expectations coming into the season. Cleveland received a season win total at the .500 mark while Seattle’s sits about 10 wins higher. The Mariners were oh so close to reaching the World Series and made a couple offseason moves to keep their position as a favorite to win the AL pennant. First baseman Josh Naylor returns on a five-year deal and has really heated up this spring after WBC play. Former Cardinal infielder Brendan Donovan was brought in to anchor third base as a better alternative to Ben Williamson in the absence of Eugenio Suarez. You may not recall that Suarez was not particularly stellar in his half season with the M’s. Our small negative adjustment to the M’s lineup still keeps them in top five territory, even without shortstop JP Crawford to start the season.

Seattle’s strong bias against right-handed pitching runs up against Tanner Bibee, who will make his second straight Opening Day start. Bibee’s Spring Training ended on a rough note, yielding 14 runs and 5 home runs in his last two outings. Projections range around the 4.00 mark for the contact pitcher with a broad arsenal of decent stuff. We know how good Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez are, but it’s the Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone types who are in the lineup because they have the ability to hit righties quite well. And, for the Mariners’ sake, those two have hit well this spring.

The Haves vs. The Have Nots

My closing point in Cleveland’s position player group assessment, “The abundance of unproven talent on the roster is a double-edged sword” rings true. Their top prospect Chase DeLauter made the club due to his immense talent and results in camp. However, Travis Bazzana and Juan Brito did not make the cut. Plus upstart outfielder George Valera is on the IL. Regardless, this offense runs through Jose Ramirez with key supporting cast members Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo.

Mariners’ starter Logan Gilbert experienced his first season interrupted by injury but still managed to produce a 3.44 ERA and 3.35 FIP/2.95 xFIP with elite command and a career-high 15.5% swinging strike rate. The Guardians have an uphill climb against the 28-year-old, although Gilbert has not been pushed very deep in any of his Spring Training outings. They should continue to hit righties at a much better rate, which bodes well in this opening series against Seattle’s rotation full of right-handers.

Both teams have quality bullpens with legitimate closers and solid depth. The edge does go to Seattle though, as their best five relievers are a touch better in the big picture. On the flip side, Cleveland has a slightly better defense even with a firm negative downgrade at first base with Kyle Manzardo. Yes, first base fielding does matter. This is a big number to lay on Gilbert with close to two weeks of rest, although the Mariners’ offense may be enough to substantiate paying the price.

And We’re Off!

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