Previous Week Plays – 1-2
Season Record – 37-37-1
Week 14 Recap:
Mediocrity equals losing money in sports betting, and after a 1-2 small weekend, our record evened up at an uninspiring .500 on the season, of course leading to being down several units. The good news is there is still some time to reverse course after what has been a completely stagnant 8 week stretch dating back to week number seven. On a positive note, we’ve found some footing with our teaser bets of late, and our win last week was pretty comfortable with the Eagles and Chiefs both coming away with victories. The Chiefs actually had a bit of a battle after getting up big early, before finally locking things up against the Broncos. Our two losses were the result of a double-dip as we had the Dolphins team total over, and against the spread against the Chargers. Kudos for the Chargers defense for absolutely shutting down Tua Tagovailoa and what had been a pretty hot Dolphins offense. The edges seem to get tighter as the season goes on, and we couldn’t capitalize with a smaller card.
Week 15 Picks:
Despite a full slate of games spanning Saturday afternoon to Monday evening, it’s a second straight pretty quiet weekend of official plays as we’re only highlighting four games and three total plays. A two team teaser that fits from a metrics standpoint and a matchup angle, a team total, and a first half ATS wager. If you’ve followed us on the 2022 season journey, you’ll recognize that our first half wager looks familiar, and hopefully will provide some relived winning ways. Our team total is in an important playoff seeding AFC contest, and our teaser features one AFC matchup and one NFC matchup. Hoping these three strategic plays are the definition of thin to win.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) vs. Chicago Bears (3-10)
Sunday December 18th
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Philadelphia Eagles -9.0 (-110)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
The leaders in the NFC head to the midwest to face the Chicago Bears in a game that appears to be a bit of a mismatch. The spread opened with the Eagles as 9 point favorites and has held pretty firm at that number, with most not giving the home team much of a shot in this contest. This game features two of the young and exciting quarterbacks in the league, yet only one team that will be playing in the postseason.
There was a lot of talk over the last week regarding the MVP chances for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, and from our seat, it’s completely merited. Hurts has command of this offense, and as a unit they make things look somewhat effortless as they’re racking up yards and points. This all stems from an offensive line that is downright nasty both in run blocking and pass protection. The Bears defense which has seen its top players depart to other teams, and battled some injuries really doesn’t seem to have much of a chance at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball. The Eagles should be able to run if they stay committed, and they have to be pleased with how strong Miles Sanders has looked the last few weeks. With time in the pocket, Hurts will be able to get the ball to A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith as usual, and at least one should have a pretty big game. As always, Hurts has the ability to run, should he need to, although don’t be surprised if you don’t see a lot of that this Sunday. In what figures to be such a mismatch, the Bears are going to need to somehow force some takeaways, or steal possessions if they hope to slow this Eagles offense down.
Color us surprised with the recent explosion of the Bears offense and Justin Fields, and more importantly, give them some credit. They’ll have their work cut out for them in this game of course, but could find enough firepower to keep things interesting. There are a couple of big challenges Chicago will face going against this Eagles defense. First, with the return of Jordan Davis and recent veteran additions on the defensive line, their rush defense has improved quite a bit the last two weekends. If a banged up David Montgomery can’t get things going on the ground that will add a ton of additional pressure on Fields to make plays. The loss of Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool only makes the passing game weaker going against the strong cornerbacks for the Eagles. The player that has been stepping up, and will need to in this game is tight end Cole Kmet. He’s put up some big games that have directly correlated with the Bears offensive output. He should see a lot of targets in this game. The Bears offensive line will have a battle with the Eagles front seven however, and that could limit how often Kmet is able to get out into passing routes. Ultimately, the Bears are too outmatched in this game. There will need to be a combination of great coaching, and some Superman play-making from Justin Fields to pull off this upset.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games
– The Eagles are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games vs. the Bears
– The Eagles are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 road games
– The Bears are 0-6 in their last 6 games
– The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
There really isn’t a ton that needs to be stated when we lay out our angle for the Eagles first half in this wager. You can make a strong argument that the Eagles are the top team in the NFL, or at the very least in the top tier. Conversely, the Bears are in the bottom quadrant, with a depleted defense, and lack of weapons for quarterback Justin Fields. There’s a pretty solid chance the Eagles will cover this spread and could easily run away with this victory. After all, they managed to take down a Giants team that’s probably at least a pinch better than this Bears group. As always, Justin Fields is the wild card though, as his ability to make the splash play could present an obstacle, including a backdoor cover. We’re going to roll with the more manageable -4.5 first half wager as the Eagles have started fast in almost every game. The weather may slow things down just a bit, and they’re on the road, but this Eagles team is sound from top to bottom. It’s tough to imagine the Bears coming out swinging in a game like this, even with the homefield advantage. Fly Eagles Fly.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles – First Half -4.5
Eagles 31, Bears 20 (First Half – Eagles 17, Bears 10)
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (7-6) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)
Sunday December 18th
4:25pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Los Angeles Chargers -3.0 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Chargers host the Tennessee Titans in a very important AFC matchup with big playoff consequences for each team. A slow stretch for the Chargers and a recent slide for the Titans have caused both to be a bit forgotten in the hierarchy of the conference, however each could still be considered dangerous in different ways. These teams are molded by their distinctly different head coaches, and we’ll have to watch to find out if Mike Vrabel has enough “old school” to keep up with the Chargers “modern” approach.
After getting through the first half of the season with a mostly one-dimensional offense, things have started to catch up to the Titans a bit. First, the good news in this matchup against the Chargers. LA has been horrific at stopping the run for the majority of the season, which is exactly what the Titans would like to capitalize on with Derrick Henry. The game plan was working against Jacksonville last week, prior to Henry coughing it up a couple of times, ultimately dooming their chances by falling behind. Henry should bounce back and have a big game, and you can imagine he’ll be extra careful taking care of the football here. Not only is the running game critical for the Titans offensive success, but it can also help keep the Chargers offense off of the field and from getting into a rhythm. The Titans banged up offensive line hasn’t been great, however against a beat up Chargers team, they should be able to perform at a capable level. Los Angeles hopes to get some players back in the lineup, mostly Sebastian Joseph-Day and Derwin James, who would be a big help in slowing down King Henry. Ryan Tannehill has been serviceable with what he’s been dealt, he simply doesn’t have enough to really threaten teams in the passing game. That’s disappointing for the Titans, who could have taken some shots against this Chargers secondary.
Despite being down a couple of offensive linemen, including left tackle Rashawn Slater, the Chargers are finally getting healthy on offense. We got a glimpse of what we thought this offense could be last week as both wide receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen started and finished a game for the first time this season. With Williams stretching the field and Allen working underneath, Justin Herbert looks like the wonderboy QB that he’s often described as being. With Austin Ekeler as a receiving weapon, and the other receivers having logged some nice experience earlier in the season, this is shaping up to be a problem for the Titans. A combination of injuries, lack of talent in some spots, and poor execution has killed their secondary, and now they have to match up with all of these skill position players. We haven’t even mentioned capable tight end Gerald Everett, who has to be excited after watching Evan Engram on film absolutely destroy this defense last Sunday. Going back to Ekeler, he may not be able to do much on the ground against this Titans front, however that really isn’t what the Chargers want to do anyhow. Look for a lot of pass attempts and the ball getting spread around a lot by Herbert.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Titans are 2-4 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Titans are 2-9 straight up in their last 11 games vs. the Chargers
– The Chargers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. the Titans
When looking at the spread of this game, it’s tough to find a strong edge either way in our opinion. On the one hand, the Titans are in a spot where you’re getting some value with the field goal as they’ve struggled of late. On the other hand, the Chargers are getting healthier and seem to be heading in the right direction. The Chargers seem like the right side, however something just is always risky about fading a Titans team, particularly when they’re underdogs. Instead, we’re keyed in on the matchup that we feel is the easiest to handicap in this game, and that’s the offense of the LA Chargers. As we discussed above, this Chargers team should be able to throw the ball all over the field against the Titans defense. You can actually find some heavily juiced 23.5 Charger team totals out there on the market, but they’re mostly sitting at 24.5. That’s low enough for us to pull the trigger in a game where weather won’t be a factor, and all weapons are available to Justin Herbert. We’re expecting around 30 points for the Chargers offense in this game and like the team total over here.
BetCrushers Take: Los Angeles Chargers – Team Total – Over 24.5
Chargers 29, Titans 23
Teaser Bet
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Miami Dolphins (8-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Saturday December 17th
8:15pm
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -7 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (4-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-8)
Monday December 19th
8:15pm
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -7 (-105)
Over/Under 39.5 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Bills -1 and Packers -1
Saturday NFL football is now a thing as fans are treated to a triple-header with the feature game showcasing AFC East heavyweights in Buffalo, with the Bills facing the Dolphins. This is a rematch of a brutally hot win for the Dolphins in South Florida from week three, that will be played in conditions this time around that could see up to a foot of snow. Things will also be chilly in Green Bay on Monday Night Football as the Packers play host to the Los Angeles Rams, now guided by new quarterback Baker Mayfield. This is a cliché contest of guys playing for pride, as both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to a playoff spot.
After a sizzling month of November for the Miami offense, things grinded to a bit of a halt during their two game losing streak. They’ll try to get back on track against a Buffalo Bills defense that is still adjusting to life without pass rushing legend Von Miller. Weather might be the biggest obstacle for Tua Tagovailoa, but the Bills defense won’t be too sunny for him either. Even without Miller, the Bills rotate four high draft picks off of the edges, and have a very strong interior behind Ed Oliver and Daquan Jones. They will be missing Jordan Phillips in this meeting, but with the Dolphins rarely running between the tackles, this shouldn’t be a major issue. Going back to the weather, the Dolphins may have to run if the weather doesn’t cooperate. While Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, Jr. are solid running backs, neither have really gotten a lot going on a consistent basis this season. The Bills are ranked third in adjusted rush defense EPA so it’s hard to imagine them getting much going in this game. The big question will be can the Dolphins get the ball to Tyreek Hill to make plays? Hill has crushed the Bills as a member of the Chiefs and could do the same against a suspect secondary. Buffalo does have Tre’Davious White back at the corner position, but he’s still rounding into form after his ACL rehab. The better news for Buffalo is they’ll have Jordan Poyer at safety who missed the first meeting. The Bills are 9-0 with Poyer in the lineup, just 1-3 without him. After watching the scheme the Chargers deployed to take away the middle of the field from Tagovailoa, it will be interesting to see if the Bills defense follows suit there. This is actually a bit of a change from their normal defensive philosophy. For the Bills offense, they’ll also try to run the football, which might not go so well for them either. Despite occasional flashes from Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook, they haven’t been great moving the chains on the ground. The big difference and weapon here is of course the ability of Josh Allen to gain yards when needed with his legs. This is something he can do, but the team prefers that he does not have to do. The Dolphins are certainly vulnerable in their secondary, as they’ve lost three starters on the year, and Xavien Howard hasn’t played up to his reputation. Don’t be shocked if Cole Beasley is on the active roster for this one, despite just getting to Buffalo on Tuesday. The bottom line here is the Bills should be able to throw the ball a little better in inclement weather than the Dolphins.
The BetCrushers have been critical of Baker Mayfield ever since he was selected number one overall by the Browns. That being said, that was pretty impressive stuff he did the against the Raiders in prime time, even if it was the Raiders, and the officials kinda helped them out. Mayfield faces a tough passing defense in Green Bay, and could be under some pressure in this one. The receivers currently lining up for the Rams are simply not going to be able to separate against the secondary for the Packers. The way to attack Green Bay is on the ground, and behind a beat up offensive line, it’s tough to picture Cam Akers or anyone else really getting much going, even with a favorable matchup there. Predicting turnovers is essentially impossible, but you can look for instances where they are more likely to occur. Don’t be shocked if Mayfield ends up turning the ball over against this defense. The Packers are also not necessarily poised to put up big fireworks on offense either. Their offensive line has been average at best, and will again be without left tackle David Bakhtiari, who is still recovering from an appendectomy. That will certainly make things tougher against a solid Rams defense that hopes to get Aaron Donald back, although that appears to be trending as a negative at this point. Rodgers will need to make some plays in the passing game, and on the positive side, he’ll have Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Allen Lazard all available at receiver. That should be enough to at least convert some third downs and make some plays. With that being said, don’t be shocked to see a lot of punts in this ballgame.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Dolphins are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games vs. the Bills
– The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Dolphins are 0-5 straight up in their last 5 games in Buffalo
– The Bills are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games
– The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games in December
– The Rams are 1-6 straight up in their last 7 games
– The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. the Packers
– The Packers are 13-0 in their last 13 games played in December
When people reference and play Wong teasers, it’s really a statistical calculation that has proven to be profitable over a large sample size. It’s nice to have that in mind with a play like this, however this is as much matchup based as it is numbers driven. The Bills want revenge against the Dolphins, and have several key players back that did not participate in their first meeting that they could have still won. We know homefield advantage can be worth a point and a half generally speaking week to week, but there are clearly situations where it’s worth a lot more. The Dolphins trying to navigate in the cold and snow really is a bit of a disadvantage when you’re a passing offense and your quarterback doesn’t have the strongest arm in the world. After a tight race throughout the season, this is where the Bills can pull away from their AFC East rivals and put a stranglehold on at least the division. In Green Bay, we’re counting on that weather being beneficial to the home team there as well. While we’re not huge into trends, and the Packers have been a dominant team the past few seasons, it says something that they’re 13-0 in their last stretch of games in December at home. The Packers can run the ball pretty well, and the Rams really do not. After the amazing Baker Mayfield Hollywood ending a week ago, we’re expecting some regression with this very limited Rams offense. Their defense should keep things pretty close, and probably low scoring, but even in a disappointing season, Aaron Rodgers should be able to top Baker Mayfield in a home matchup. Give us the two home favorites essentially just needing a win.
