Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 18-16-1
Week 8 Recap:
Listen, anytime you have a performance like we had a week ago which saw us implode, we’ll take any kind of improvement. We went small last weekend and managed to hit two of our three bets for a mildly profitable return. The day started great with the Miami Dolphins once again eclipsing their team total, and easily hitting their part of the teaser bet. Starting 1-0 with a teaser leg out of the way felt fantastic. Unfortunately, the second leg saw a flu-battling Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs turn the ball over five times in their first loss against the Broncos in eight years in the late window. On the plus side, the Ravens took care of business for our other teaser, and the Lions finished that off on Monday Night Football. We were an unexpected Chiefs collapse away from a 3-0 weekend, but we’ll take the 2-1 which at the very least washes the awful taste away from the week before.
Week 9 Picks:
We’ve got five total wagers locked in this week, although they’re spread out amongst just four games. We’re playing two small favorites, and also playing their team totals for a pair of double-down bets, and a teaser featuring a favorite and an underdog. To be honest, there were probably half a dozen other spots we could have taken a swing with, but there just didn’t seem to be enough of an edge to make them worth taking a stab at. Depending on how a couple of these games go, it’s likely either going to be a really good, or a really bad week for us. We’ll always bet on ourselves though, so here’s to hoping it’s going to be a great Sunday. Best of luck if you’re tailing or with all of your wagers!
Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers
vs. 
Indianapolis Colts (2-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (5-2)
Sunday November 5th
4:05pm
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 44 (-110)
The Indianapolis Colts will take on the Carolina Panthers in a game they really need to win if they want to keep pace in the crowded AFC. The Panthers are coming off of their first win of the season and will look to build on the improvements they’ve made since the start of the year. This was supposed to be the Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young rookie showdown, but we’ll see Gardner Minshew facing off against a defense that throttled the Texans a week ago. Will the Panthers be content having found the win column, or will they ride that momentum to a second straight victory?
The Indianapolis Colts have kind of had an identity over the past few years which was supposed to be designed as a running and physical football team. They’ve picked up the pace on that identity over the start of the season as their offensive line is playing substantially better than they did a year ago. Head coach Shane Steichen may or may not want to keep that identity for Indy, but he’s definitely riding it while he can behind Zack Moss and the now healthy Jonathan Taylor. Moss continues to play well, and the Colts have done a nice job working Taylor back into the mix. This could be a true breakout game for Taylor against a Panthers defense that has had trouble stopping the run. If they can keep the chains moving on the ground, don’t be surprised if the Colts pound away at that Panther front seven and limit the amount of throws Gardner Minshew needs to make. Minshew hasn’t played badly since taking over for Anthony Richardson, but he has turned the ball over more than you’d like. In a game that figures to be close, turnovers could be the difference. Can Minshew make enough throws while still taking care of the ball?
The Panthers offense is starting to find a little bit of a rhythm which has to be a relief for the organization as Bryce Young finds his footing. Young could find some continued growth in this game against a Colts defense that isn’t great at getting after opposing passers. The interior of the Panthers offensive line needs to stand up to DeForest Buckner and keep the pocket clean for Young. If they can do that, he should stay clean on the edges, and have find time to get the ball to his receivers. Speaking of receivers, if you haven’t been paying close attention, Adam Thielen is absolutely crushing it of late. He looks like the dominant Pro Bowl receiver from five years ago and is clearly the top target in the offense. The Colts cornerbacks are some of the weakest in the league, which means Thielen should have another strong performance. Carolina really needs to crank up their running game to stay balanced, and whether that’s with Chubba Hubbard or Miles Sanders, they need to support the passing game. The toughest piece for the Panther offense in this game is they don’t generate a ton of big plays. The Colts defense is vulnerable to quick strikes, however they won’t have to worry too much about that in this one.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 8 of the last 10 games for the Colts
– The total has gone over in 6 of the last 7 games on the road for the Colts
– The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog
If you have a lot of patience, you might be able to see the light at the end for the Carolina Panthers vision. For betting purposes though, it’s a lot better to find the team that is exceeding expectations and may still be a little undervalued. Really this game comes down to matchup, and the Colts running game is what we really love in this game. Even though it’s a road contest, Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss should be able to wear down the Panthers defense and quite simply sustain offense better than their opponent. Things could go decently for the Panthers as well on offense, but it seems a lot more hit or miss. Indy should find a way to win this game, even though it will most likely be a really close contest. Additionally, it’s tough to see a scenario where the Colts don’t get some points on the board. Their team total is a lot more appealing than the overall game total, in case Carolina doesn’t hold up their end of the bargain there. We’re going chalky road favorite and a team over. What could possibly go wrong?
BetCrushers Take: Indianapolis Colts -2 and Indianapolis Colts – Team Total Over 22.5
Colts 24, Panthers 19
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (2-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
Sunday November 5th
8:20pm
Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -2 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Sunday Night Football has one of the three marquee matchups of the weekend when Josh Allen and the Bills head to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. These teams faced each other in the divisional round of the playoffs a season ago, however most will more vividly remember their Monday Night Football matchup that was cancelled when Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field. Emotions will be running high for both teams, but when they get settled in, fans should be in for some really good football.
The offense for the Bills made a concerted effort to come out aggressively a week ago, and they looked like a totally different group than we saw the previous three games. Chances are that fast tempo approach will be in play again as the team understands they’re going to have to put up some points to win this football game. Quarterback Josh Allen plays best when he’s able to play fast and even a little recklessly. As always, he’ll need to balance that aggressive style with not turning the ball over for the team to be successful. Allen is somewhat quietly battling a lingering shoulder injury, which is something worth monitoring on Sunday. Can he throw the ball downfield effectively, and take the hits that may be coming his way against a physical defense on their home turf? In their playoff loss last year, the offensive line of the Bills was completely dominated by the defense of the Bengals, and Allen looked like a deer in headlights. We may get a glimpse early on whether or not Allen is feeling comfortable in the pocket, or if he looks skittish and wants to escape the pocket. Depending on what we see on the first series or two there, we may have our answer on he and the Bills will do offensively. One constant that has helped Allen this season is when they can run the football effectively. James Cook will get some opportunities, and Cincinnati has given up some yards on the ground. It’s actually not crazy to say that Cook is the key to the game for the Bills on offense. If Cincinnati has to respect the run, it will give Allen a little more time to throw, and allow his targets to get open. We’ll all be watching to see if Stefon Diggs can play better than he did versus Cincy in the playoffs, but as we saw a week ago, it could be the secondary weapons like Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid who really keep the chains moving.
There’s an old saying in the NFL that says you can’t use injuries as an excuse, and Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow certainly never did. With that being said, it’s pretty darn clear that he wasn’t healthy to start the season and both the team and his play reflected this. Since he’s bounced back from his calf strain, he has looked dialed in and pretty much unstoppable. Ironically, the past two weeks he’s been a lot slower getting the ball out in the passing game, but it’s resulted in near flawless play. Burrow looked good against the Bills last season, and this is generally the type of defense he can feast against. The Bills like to play a conservative and soft zone, and force teams to drive the field slowly in hopes they’ll eventually make a mistake. When Burrow is playing well, he simply doesn’t make those mistakes. The Bengals also provide a challenge against the Bills secondary that is a little thin without Tre White on the corner. They added valuable veteran Rasul Douglas before the trade deadline, but it’s unlikely Douglas would play much having just arrived to town on Wednesday. The same would go for defensive tackle Linval Joseph, who was brought in to beef up the interior of the defense with the loss of Daquan Jones. With the Bills playing primarily nickel and dime defense, and an interior that is soft at the moment, this could actually be a huge game for Joe Mixon and the running game for Cincinnati. Buffalo is going to have to play a dangerous game of pick your poison, with bringing up safety help to control Mixon, or staying back and potentially giving up six yard runs all evening.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Bengals
– The Bengals are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games at home
We’re going to learn a lot about both of these teams as this game is not only critical in the AFC standings, but also in determining who is truly near the top in the conference. The Bengals have seemingly already turned the corner with the return of a healthy Joe Burrow, while the Bills are still scrambling a bit with some key losses on the defensive side of the football. We’re expecting some points, as the over/under at 50.5 would suggest, but much like in our wager in Carolina/Indy, we’re going to side with one team. The Bills should have a much better offensive performance than they had in the playoff loss a year ago, but we’re more confident in the Bengals moving the ball against that wounded defense. Also like the other game, this is simply not a great matchup for the Bills based on coaching styles and schemes. Throw in the homefield factor and this is a game that the Bengals should find a way to win.
BetCrushers Take: Cincinnati Bengals -2 and Cincinnati Bengals – Team Total Over 24.5
Bengals 27, Bills 24
Teaser Bet
Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints
New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Chicago Bears (3-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-2)
Sunday November 5th
1:00pm
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
New Orleans -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
New York Giants (5-2) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-6)
Sunday November 5th
4:25pm
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas Raiders -2 (-110)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Saints -2.5 and Giants +8
The Bears will once again be without Justin Fields when they face the New Orleans Saints in the early window on Sunday. The Giants will get their starting quarterback back in the lineup when Daniel Jones takes the field against another new quarterback in Aidan O’Connell for the Raiders. With all of the moving parts at the QB position it can be a little confusing to learn identities of teams and their respective offenses. Will the veteran quarterbacks be able to upstage their young counterparts this weekend?
Game three will be the rubber match in the Tyson Bagent experience for the Bears, as the young quarterback won his first start, before looking outclassed in his second appearance. He has a tough assignment playing in what is sure to be a raucous Superdome against a very capable Saints defense. It won’t help matters that he’ll be lined up behind a banged up offensive line, which is not ideal when taking on a stout defensive front. The Bears have to find a way to run the football with perennial backup D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson. If the Saints shut down the Chicago running attack this game could get out of hand. Bagent will be under some pressure, and the cornerbacks of the Saints should be able to slow down the skill players on Chicago’s offense. It will be a tall task for Bagent to not only move the ball, but also take care of it. On the opposite side, after a slow start, Derek Carr has actually heated up a bit over the last month of the season. He’ll look to make it four straight 300 yard games against a Bears defense that has taken it’s share of abuse from opposing passing games. The Bears have actually been pretty good against the run, so the Saints will need to attack through the air. Fortunately for them, their top running weapon is also a very capable pass catcher. Additionally, Bears middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds won’t be playing, which limits a bit of what Chicago would like to do on defense. Carr will spread the ball around to a lot of receivers in this game, and ultimately, the talent on the offensive side of the ball for the Saints will simply wear down the Bears.
One of the uglier games of the weekend is leg two of our teaser bet between the struggling offense of the New York Giants and the equally inept defense for the Las Vegas Raiders. If you’ve caught any of the Raiders matchups this year, you’ll notice one thing over and over again on their defense. Maxx Crosby is all over the field making plays like an All-Pro, and the rest of the unit basically stinks. Crosby should have another strong outing against Evan Neal and the right side of the Giants offensive line. New York does get a boost though with the return of center John Michael Schmitz, and may possibly have left tackle Andrew Thomas back as well. Speaking of getting players back, Daniel Jones will take back over as the starter after his neck injury, which should not only help the passing game, but also the running game. He can grind out some yards of his own on the ground, but maybe more importantly, provide a little extra relief for Saquon Barkley. The Giants main weapon is in line for a lot of work against a Raiders run defense that gotten gashed the past couple of weeks, and is missing some contributors in their linebacker unit. While we aren’t expecting this Giants offensive to resemble the 2000 Rams anytime soon, we should see a much better showing behind a healthy Jones and Barkley than what we’ve gotten up to this point. The Raiders are doing the wise thing after canning head coach Josh McDaniels, and giving the keys to rookie Aidan O’Connell. Realistically their season wasn’t going anywhere, so why not see what the kid can do? That decision was even easier watching how poorly Brian Hoyer and Jimmy Garoppolo played in their recent starts. O’Connell could provide a spark at the very least, and we’d imagine make a pretty big effort to get the ball to Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, something that didn’t happen a week ago. Josh Jacobs looked about as good as he has all season in last week’s drubbing, and he has a pretty friendly matchup here. The Giants rank near the bottom in rush defense and just shipped Leonard Williams away to the Seahawks. We may finally get a glimpse of the Jacobs running attack that was so potent a year ago.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games
– The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Saints
– The Bears are 0-7 straight up in their last 7 games vs. the Saints
– The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Raiders
– The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 road games for the Giants
– The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
To be completely forward, the Saints seem like a teaser leg you can use more than once this week. That is if you can find something you want to pair them with. In almost every NFL game you can find a path for a team to find a win, or at the very least a cover when they’re heavy underdogs. After breaking this one down, there just doesn’t seem to be a realistic way the Bears can win this football game, and quite frankly it could get ugly. We’re close to wanting to lay the 8.5, but since the number lines up for a teaser, we’ll officially go that way, just in case the Bears don’t get their doors blown off in this matchup. The other game is of course a little dicey, simply because we’re banking on a team that just isn’t very good to get a cover. We’re counting on that team to at least keep things within a score though since the team they’re playing is equally as pathetic. The Raiders could get a little jolt from an interim head coach and a QB switch, but are they really good enough to blow any teams in this league out? We sure hope not with this wager.
