Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 30-25-3
Week 14 Recap:
Cruising to a pretty easy over in the Monday Night Football game capped a 3-1 weekend that was really read well. Our loss was in the over in the Titans and Jaguars game as the inept Jacksonville offense could only muster 10 points despite multiple trips in the red zone. A pair of 4th down turnover on downs by the Jags doomed that total despite the onslaught of points that the Titans put up. Our teaser play was pretty straightforward as both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady did enough to come up with victories as we anticipated. Things were mildly dicey with the Cowboys team total over as despite having a first and goal from the one early in the 3rd quarter needing just a TD to cash, it took until near the end of the game to punch things over. A strong 3-1 that easily could have been a 4-0 is what we’re after as we head into a new weekend that has some Saturday ball added in.
Week 15 Picks:
We had five plays targeted, but ultimately are going a little thinner with the three that we like the best this week. A potpourri with one game against the spread, one total and a teaser that fits are normal operations. All of our games selected have at least one team playing for something, although you could certainly debate that when it comes to the Cowboys. With games seemingly being played daily, enjoy week fifteen!
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs.
San Francisco 49ers (5-8) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
December 20th
1:00pm
CBS
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
In the first of our matchups of two teams needing a win to keep any faint hopes of the playoffs alive the 49ers travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. Both teams have had to adapt to major losses to injuries on their rosters, and this game could come down to which team can generate better offense.
2020 will go down as a lost season for what really is a talented San Francisco 49er team and offense. Deebo Samuel’s brief return to the lineup was halted as he was injured again meaning the Niners’ will be without their top QB, WR and TE yet again Sunday. There is a little bit of good news for SF as their running back corp is mostly healthy, which is going to be key in this football game. The Cowboys defense has been routinely gashed both through the air and on the ground, and they’re going to have some serious problems stopping the San Francisco ground game. It’s not just the fact that their offensive line will bully the defensive front of the Cowboys, it’s also about the scheme. Kyle Shanahan’s zone blocking is something the Dallas defense is not going to have an answer for. Although quarterback Nick Mullens hasn’t played great the past couple of games, he may not need to do much in this one. When he is called upon to make throws, he’ll be doing it against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL. Despite the absence of George Kittle, this offense is going to roll like it hasn’t in a while inside Jerry’s World.
As much as San Francisco has the advantage in the trenches on offense, they have it equally as much on defense. This is despite not having Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Solomon Thomas playing in the game. The Cowboys offense is depleted and flat out can’t give Andy Dalton the time he needs to throw or give the running game the space it needs to maneuver. You could make the argument the Cowboys weren’t even that great against a terrible Cincinnati defense a week ago despite their win. With their injuries on offense, the strength of the Cowboys now is their depth and talent at the wide receiver position. The 49ers are finally healthy in their secondary and should be able to match up fairly well with Jason Verrett playing really well and Richard Sherman having a couple weeks to get back into game shape. If the 49ers can generate any pressure at all, which they should, Andy Dalton could make some mistakes. With their deficiencies on defense, the Cowboys cannot give extra possessions to their opponents, something that Robert Saleh knows. Don’t be surprised to see him blitzing more than normal in an effort to create turnovers.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus the NFC
– The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
– The 49ers are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 games
The San Francisco 49ers have struggled all season both with injuries and inconsistencies. The same could be said about the Cowboys. There are two key differences however when you break these teams down this season. First, the Niners’ have played a tougher schedule and been more successful. More importantly here, they have a huge edge in coaching and should have a great gameplan to utilize their strengths. They say a good coach is worth an extra win a season, whereas a bad on is worth an extra loss. (Or maybe more if you’re Anthony Lynn). This definitely seems to fit the bill where one team has the physical advantage and the scheme advantage, which should lead to a convincing victory for the road team.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers -3
49ers 29, Cowboys 20
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
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Chicago Bears (6-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
Sunday December 20th
1:00pm
FOX
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-120)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The other game of two teams dangling on the edge of the playoffs is a battle of NFC North rivals between the Bears and the Vikings. With matching records of 6-7 heading in, the winner will be positioned to make a legitimate playoff run, while the loser will find themselves on the outside looking in.
There have been some pretty crazy stats floating around the internet the last week or so about how Mitchell Trubisky’s stats are actually not all that terrible. That’s actually true, although we’re gonna stop short of stating that he’s a franchise quarterback. That being said, this Bears offense has seen a bit of a spark as he’s played well in his re-insertion into the starting lineup. He’s been helped by some much better running by David Montgomery, albeit against really bad teams stopping the run. Fortunately, the Vikings also fall into that category as they rank near the bottom in rush defense. As long as Trubisky isn’t in full dropback mode he should find success with Allen Robinson II who’s also been hot. Matt Nagy mentioned a few weeks ago that the Bears needed to get their tight ends more involved in the offense and rookie Cole Kmet has made some plays as has veteran Jimmy Graham. Teams have had more success attacking the Vikings outside of the numbers however, so it’s going to require a good gameplan if they’re going to continue to lean on the short passing game. Harrison Smith and the Viking secondary are willing to take some gambles, which means the Bears need Trubisky to find a big play somewhere along the way over the top.
In their first matchup the Vikings put up nearly 400 yards (to less than 200 for the Bears) so they had little issue moving the ball against the Bears defense. Akiem Hicks had exited that game early which opened things up for Dalvin Cook for what ended up being a big game. Cook just continues to perform as he was able to run through the vaunted Tampa Bay run defense a week ago. Even with Hicks in the lineup, the Bears are susceptible to power running games so don’t be shocked to see him chalk yet another 100 yard day. Speaking of dissed quarterbacks, don’t look now but Kirk Cousins is also playing some solid football overall. He’s been fairly well protected which will be a key here as Khalil Mack has had some big games against Minnesota in the past. Despite Cousins’ solid play, he struggled last week getting the ball into the hands of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, which ultimately kept them from scoring enough to pull off the road upset. With both receivers having been on a tear in the month prior, you’ve got to believe Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak will be focused on getting them involved early.
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 8 Vikings home games
When you think of the NFC North and teams like the Bears and Vikings you think of black and blue low-scoring defensive football. While the Bears still play to that style, the Minnesota Vikings need to win with their offense in 2020. They’ve proven then can move the ball and put up points against the Bears and there’s no reason to believe they won’t do it again. If you’re a Bears fan you can be happy to know that Mitchell Trubisky is playing confidently and relatively well. In today’s NFL a 46 total can be considered relatively low. With weather not being a factor in the dome, these teams should combine to get into the 50’s. We’re taking the over and hoping for touchdowns and not field goals.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 46
Vikings 28, Bears 24
Teaser Bet
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
vs. 
and 
vs.
Carolina Panthers (4-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Saturday December 19th
8:15pm
NFL Network
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -8 (-110)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
Houston Texans (4-9) vs. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
Sunday December 20th
1:00pm
CBS
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -7.5 (-120)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Packers -2 and Colts -1.5
Throughout the years it’s never a secret that betting late in the season in the NFL requires handicapping which teams have something to play for, and who simply is running out the clock. Our teaser of the week is focused on two teams that are favorites that can be teased under the key number of three, and are certainly still playing for a lot. The Packers have a Saturday contest at home against the Packers and the Colts will play host to the rival Texans.
The Packers are poised to sneak in and grab the number one seed in the NFC which could be crucial in their ability to potentially make it to the Super Bowl. Standing in their way Saturday is a feisty Carolina Panther team that has covered spreads well all year despite their losing record. The team was hoping to have Christian McCaffrey back, but they’ll wisely sit him, which means Mike Davis will be the feature back again. For the Panthers to pull off an upset Davis will need to have a monster game as the Achille’s Heel of Green Bay is their run defense. The Panthers should have D.J. Moore back so they’ll be at full strength in the passing game. There should be some good battles between Carolina’s receivers and the defensive backs of the Packers. On the other side of the ball it’s definitely the definition of a mismatch as the Packers number one scoring offense should have their way moving the football on the ground and through the air.
The Houston Texans difficult season continued last week as they were pummeled on both sides of the ball. Their offense should play better this week, but it’s clear that Watson doesn’t have the weapons needed with the absence of Will Fuller V to truly put up the points they need to win. Against the Colts it’s going to be tough sledding running the football which will put an even bigger strain on Watson and the passing game. Indianapolis conversely has not been struggling offensively at all. In fact, they’re as hot as any team in the league over the last six games scoring points. The re-emergence of T.Y. Hilton has boosted their passing game, and rookie Jonathan Taylor is really starting to show what he can do running the football. (If you read our DFS article you know we love him this weekend). There’s a chance the Colts could blow Houston out especially if they’re up early.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games
– The Panthers are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games
– The Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the Colts
– The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
There are really three potential angles to play in the Saturday game. The Panthers could cover an 8 point spread, and this game could absolutely go over. While both of those are possible, we really like the more “sure” thing of Green Bay coming away with a win in a nationally televised home game they must prevail in. The Colts should be able to handle the Texans, but it is a divisional game and Deshaun Watson is still lining up at QB for Houston. Because of this we prefer to take Indy simply needing a win past the key number of three. Our teasers have been selective all season and mostly successful, here’s another one that should get it done.
