ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Detroit Lions +140
Minnesota Vikings +275
Chicago Bears +400
Green Bay Packers +400
For the first time in a while, the NFC North looks a little different, as Aaron Rodgers is no longer the constant QB in a division that has seen the others have quarterbacks come and go over the past decade. Green Bay will have a new signal-caller, while the other three teams bring back their leaders for the 2023 season. The North has that interesting vibe, where this is something each team has to be excited about entering the year. On the flip side, every team has at least one area of concern, if not more. The Lions find themselves in unfamiliar territory as slight favorites to capture the division, but to borrow an overused cliché, the NFC North is absolutely up for grabs for everyone.
Chicago Bears
2022 Record – 3-14
2022 Record Against the Spread – 5-11-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) D.J. Moore, (LB) Tremaine Edmunds, (DE) DeMarcus Walker, (LB) T.J. Edwards, (DE) Yannick Ngakoue (TE) Robert Tonyan, (OG) Nate Davis, (OT) Darnell Wright
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(OT) Riley Reiff, (RB) David Montgomery
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Whenever you have a ten game losing streak during an NFL season, you can safely say it was a disappointing campaign. The Bears struggled mightily after starting the season 2-1 and endured many challenges during head coach Matt Eberflus’ first year. The offense struggled to find consistency, despite some flashes from quarterback Justin Fields, and the once proud Chicago defense ended up being arguably the worst in the league. A disappointing season yielded little, except what could end up being very important experience for a young head coach and quarterback.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #26
Every year there tends to be a team that people feels “wins the offseason”, generally by adding through free agency and the draft. The Bears are definitely in contention for that award as they spent a lot of money and energy building an offense around quarterback Justin Fields. There is no quarterback who has yet to accomplish very much with as high of expectations in the league as the Bears young QB. Fields is widely spoken of as an MVP quarterback, and one of the top signal-callers in the NFC. Evaluating Fields was difficult due mainly to his lack of a supporting cast. Entering year number three he has some help, and we’ll all get to see if those flashes of athleticism and brilliance can translate over a full game and a full season. The big addition on the offensive side of the ball was scoring talented wide receiver D.J. Moore to lead the team as a true number one receiver. With Darnell Mooney already having some rapport with Fields, they now believe they have a nice one-two punch, and would like to see more from beleaguered Chase Claypool. Add in the solid Cole Kmet and some veteran depth at tight end and the cupboard is no longer bear in Chicago. For a young quarterback, the offensive line is critical to development and success. This is an area that is still very much up in the air when you look at their starting five guys up front. They used their first round pick on massive right tackle Darnell Wright, and they do have former first round pick Alex Leatherwood on the roster. The latter is a player they’re hoping they can develop into an eventual starter at the guard position. The other guys on the line have largely struggled, or if you want to be generous, you’d say have been inconsistent. If the line can elevate their play, the offense could take off, of course anytime you use the word “if”, it’s certainly not a sure thing.
The Chicago Bears defense is currently on the anticipatory ride up of a traditional roller coaster ride. After years of dominating, a depleted roster played very un-“Bear”-like defense the last two seasons, finishing as what many considered as the worst defense in the entire league. This was evident by finishing dead last in scoring defense, as just one of many examples. Give Ryan Poles for not standing still and putting some energy into bringing back this proud defense. It’s hard to argue with the players the team was able to grab in the offseason, the only criticism is they paid a large ransom to obtain them. First on this list was middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds who signed a mega deal to captain the new look defense. Edmunds has the athleticism and experience to initially boost things in the middle. T.J. Edwards and DeMarcus Walker also should provide some better play surrounding Edmunds. Being able to get Yannick Ngakoue was a really big acquisition as there really wasn’t a lot to be excited about with the pass rush prior to his arrival. He should at least give them some hope of helping to get to the quarterback. The secondary has some young players and veteran Eddie Jackson to oversee things, so they should be respectable, if not spectacular. This defense will be improved from a season ago, however they still have quite a way to go before they regain dominant status.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 25th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-10
If you get tired of hearing cliché terms like upside, then go ahead and tune out our expectations for the Chicago Bears. The defense is substantially improved, the weapons are upgraded, and Justin Fields is literally considered an MVP candidate. At one point he actually had the most tickets on him to win that award, and may still. If Fields plays to the level many are suggesting he will, this could be a 2019 Baltimore Ravens type team that is fun to watch and wins a lot of games. Those reading who have followed the BetCrushers for a while know that we’re a prove it bunch who need to see it before we believe it. The offensive line is still questionable, and the NFC North is a better division top to bottom than it’s getting credit for.
Possible to Wagers To Play – TBD
Apologies for taking the quitter’s way out with the Chicago Bears, but this is simply too volatile of a team when you look at how they may or may not perform. We’ll adjust after a few weeks and figure out a little better what we’re working with in Chicago, but for now, it’s a wait and see in terms of any wagers.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Justin Fields (QB)
Whether or not Fields makes the jump to elite quarterback is uncertain, yet he’s pretty much a slamdunk in fantasy football because of his running ability. With the addition of D.J. Moore he should be able to throw the ball around a little more, and overall points should come at least a little easier for the offense. When the run of elite quarterbacks starts, if the top guys come off the board and you don’t want to risk the lower tier players, Fields is your guy if you like to live on the edge.
Detroit Lions
2022 Record – 9-8
2022 Record Against the Spread – 12-5
KEY ADDITIONS:
(S) Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, (RB) David Montgomery, (WR) Marvin Jones, Jr., (OG) Graham Glasnow, (CB) Cameron Sutton, (RB) Jahmyr Gibbs, (LB) Jack Campbell
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(RB) Jamaal Williams, (WR) D.J. Chark, (CB) Jeff Okudah, (CB) Mike Hughes
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The NFL TV show “Hard Knocks” thought the 2022 Detroit Lions were a team to pay attention to, and it turns out they were on to something. Although the Lions failed to make the playoffs, they had what most would consider a great season to build upon. The highlight occurred in the final week of the regular season, when the Lions, having just been formally eliminated from the playoffs, finished strong knocking the rival Packers out of the postseason. The offense was a bright spot, as quarterback Jared Goff commanded a unit that was top ten throughout the season. The defense was unable to match the potency of the offense however, as they struggled against the run and the pass.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #3
The world is a wild place these days and having the Lions as favorites to with the NFC North just adds fuel to that fire. Head coach Dan Campbell is making his mark as a true leader and building something the people of Detroit have desperately been waiting on. Even if they weren’t contenders in the NFC (they are), they’d still be a fun team to watch because this offense is one of the better ones in the league. If you asked the average person, they probably wouldn’t mention the Lions as a top five offense in the league, however that’s exactly what they were and are. It all starts with the offensive line, which we have ranked as the third best in the entire league, trailing only the Eagles and Browns. This is a physical group that can run block and pass block exceptionally. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to do both things as the Lions may have grabbed themselves a gamebreaker at the running back position, and have quality wide receivers to boot. The running back we’re referring to was thought as a bit of a reach by many draft experts, but you cannot deny that rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has a burst and vision you simply can’t teach. He’s also believed to have a lot of upside receiving, so he could be a dual threat. With D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams gone from last year’s team, the Lions also brought in former Bears running back David Montgomery to be the shorus yardage back with plenty of experience in the division. The wide receiver grouping of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones, Jr. and Josh Reynolds is solid, with St. Brown pushing the threshold of greatness. Eventually, they’ll add last year’s speedy playmaker Jameson Williams into the mix, which will help provide the explosive element to the attack. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta could end up opening the season as the starting tight end, as he appears built for, and ready for the NFL. The one position we’ve yet to mention is that kind of important role of quarterback. Jared Goff silenced critics a season ago, and while he may have some limitations, he’s clearly a good fit in offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s system. Without a ton of mobility, it’s nice that he has the benefit of playing behind their excellent offensive line. Goff should have another quality season, and at that point can cement himself as a legitimate franchise quarterback in the league once again.
The plus for the Lions is they figured out how to score some points and move the football in 2022. The minus would be the defense was still really pathetic. The amount of games the Lions ultimately end up winning will come down to how much better this defense can play in 2023. The big problem we see with this defense is they are built opposite of the offense in terms of the line play. Aidan Hutchinson is the exception as he could become an absolute star in his second year as a defensive end and pass rusher. It’s the rest of his peers that would appear to be the problem. If we’re being brutally honest, the other three on the line should probably be backup players in the league, not starters. It’s asking an awful lot of Hutchinson to anchor that group without a lot of help. The linebackers aren’t necessarily great either, although they are at least capable of being starters. They really need this year’s draft pick Jack Campbell to step in and become the defensive force at the middle level. The secondary should be at least marginally better this year as they added Cam Sutton and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in free agency to replace a couple of their own losses. For what seems like the fifth straight season they have little depth at the corner position, so they’ll need to keep these guys healthy.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 21st Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
How will the Lions handle having a target on their back for the first time in a really long time? Dan Campbell will have them prepared, and the offense can flat out play. How much the defense can improve may end up making the difference between the playoffs and disappointment. Can they take care of the teams in their own division? That’s part two of the equation. We have a congested NFC North, and the Lions will be right in the mix with the other three teams, right around the Vegas projected 10 win mark.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under Totals – Over
The formula is pretty simple when you combine what should be a productive offense with a defense that could still be a liability. Point totals should end up in the 50’s with regularity unless the Lions are facing an elite defense. If you aren’t sure on their opponent, play the Lions team total, especially when they’re at home.
Fantasy Players To Watch , Jared Goff (QB), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR), Sam LaPorta (TE)
We’ve got three players highlighted which tells you how we feel about this offense and their potential to score fantasy points. Jared Goff should absolutely be on your roster as a backup, who can start when needed, or as a less expensive DFS option. Go ahead and stack him with one of the best young receivers in the league in Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s going early in drafts for a reason, and he’s a player you can justify taking early. Rookie Sam LaPorta could end up being a big part of this offense as well as he will start early in the year, and just has the look of a guy that can be a top five or ten tight end in the league.
Green Bay Packers
2022 Record – 8-9
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(S) Tarvarius Moore, (LB) Lukas Van Ness
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(QB) Aaron Rodgers (WR) Allen Lazard, (TE) Robert Tonyan, (S) Adrian Amos, (DT) Jarran Reed, (LB) Krys Barnes
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ final season in Green Bay did not prove to be a fruitful one, as the Packers finished below .500 and missed the playoffs. Adding insult to injury, they were eliminated by the division rival Detroit Lions with that playoff spot on the line. Missing the playoffs had not happened since the 2018 season, and as favorites to win the division entering the year, the disappointment was felt across the organization. The offense struggled during the middle of the season, and injuries on the defensive side of the ball made for an underachieving unit.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #11
One of the most interesting storylines of the 2023 NFL season will be learning whether or not the Packers have struck gold with yet another star quarterback, or if they’re going to be going through the finding the next guy phase of their franchise at the position? Aaron Rodgers is gone, and this team is now firmly in the hands of Jordan Love, at least for the start of this year. Handicapping the Packers is one of the harder things to do leading up to this season because of the relative uncertainty with Jordan Love. We can start with what we do know, and that is Green Bay has a pretty solid offensive line. Many actually believe this is a top five or six offensive line in the entire league. We don’t have them grading out quite that high, but they are certainly better than many of the teams, particularly in the NFC. We also know that behind this offensive line they will run the ball a lot, and have a great combo with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. It’s a youth movement at receiver as Green Bay is looking for youngsters Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed to step up into consistent threats at the position. And on the subject of youth, it looks like Luke Musgrave could be another tight end who starts as a rookie. So what exactly can we expect from Jordan Love? In his very limited sample size, we saw him look completely lost early, then look very good in his second opportunity. No one can confidently say for sure just yet, but we should find out soon, and it’ll be a lot of fun to watch.
To say the Green Bay Packers defense underachieved during the 2022 season would honestly be a pretty big understatement. Yes, there were moments were they play fine, and they did battle some pretty big injuries, including losing Rashan Gary for the season. Despite that, you have to wonder how much of that was due to defensive coordinator Joe Barry not understanding how to use the pieces he had in play? The rumor around Titletown was the players weren’t necessarily thrilled with Barry’s defense, and although that wasn’t generally talked about much, it could be possible. If that’s the case, how would this year really look substantially different? The pieces are roughly the same, although they will get the previously mentioned Rashan Gary back from his injury. One key for this defense could be the addition of draft pick Lukas Van Ness. Without Z’Darius Smith, the pass rush had some silent periods to be sure a season ago. Green Bay needs Van Ness to help provide some aggressive rush on passing downs to help out, and possibly force some turnovers from the opportunistic corners in the secondary.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 26th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -105, under -115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
We stated with the Chicago Bears we need to see it before we believe it, but we’re going to be hypocritical with the Green Bay Packers. We’re going to give this Jordan Love led team the benefit of the doubt and put them in the log jam at the top of the division with the Lions. The Packers need to be more physical on defense, and they’ll need to run the ball very well, both of which are do-able. Before Detroit and Chicago can start their own dynasties, they need to dethrone the champs one more time before we write this franchise off.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Team Totals – Under (opponents)
Opposing offenses often come to Lambeau field to die. With the Packers likely running more and throwing shorter, unders will be in play throughout the season. The route we’re looking at is taking an opponents team total under when they visit Lambeau. The combination of the Packers defense, cold weather and game script should leave visiting teams leaving without a lot of points on the scoreboard more often than not.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Romeo Doubs (WR)
Go ahead and grab both Packers running backs and you’ll have some solid floors each week behind a good offensive line. From all of the beat reporters in Green Bay, it’s Romeo Doubs, and not Christian Watson that seems to be the favorite target for Jordan Love. That’s not to say Watson can’t have a successful fantasy season, but Doubs is definitely more under the radar. He could end up being a sneaky good pick when it’s all said and done.
Minnesota Vikings
2022 Record – 13-4
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-9-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(DE) Marcus Davenport, (CB) Byron Murphy, (WR) Jordan Addison
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(RB) Dalvin Cook, (LB) Za’Darius Smith, (WR) Adam Thielen, (DT) Dalvin Tomlinson, (CB) Patrick Peterson, (LB) Eric Kendricks, (TE) Irv Smith, Jr.
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Minnesota Vikings had one of the more interesting 2022 seasons in the entire National Football League. Under new head coach Kevin O’Connell, the team got off to a fast start, going 8-1 on the way to an impressive overall 13-4 record. Despite the lofty win total, the team was often criticized and referred to as “lucky and overrated” by many in the national media. The truth was somewhere in the middle, as the team performed around average metrics, and was eliminated by the New York Giants in the first round of the playoffs. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson was a bright spot on a roster that saw the defense struggle mightily under ultimately fired defensive coordinator Ed Donatell.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #13
Just how much regression to the mean are we going to see from the Vikings within close games during the upcoming season? Certainly there will be some, as the Kirk Thuggins magic can’t work every week, even though it seemed to last year. The Vikings enter the year looking a bit different to many fans as gone are recent staples of running back Dalvin Cook, wide receiver Adam Thielen, and linebacker Eric Kendricks. Before Viking fans begin panicking, it’s worth noting all three had seen better days, and there should be enough stepping in to avoid a huge falloff. This offense can best be described as frustrating, as at times they make things look as easy as any team in the league moving the football. However, they also go through stretches where they look uninspired and have trouble making first downs. Cleaning that up would be a great starting point if they want to take another crack at winning the NFC North. Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips has earned the respect of the Kirk Cousins and the two are largely synced up when it comes to play call and design. We’ll take this opportunity to once again remind everyone Cousins is one of the better quarterbacks in the league, no matter what your friends tell you. Minnesota needs their offensive line to be strong as we know Cousins isn’t overly mobile. It’s a solid group in pass protection, but much like the offense as a whole, they’ve been hit or miss with their run blocking. They’ll need to step that up with Cook no longer on the roster. Alexander Mattison proved capable in the RB2 role behind Cook, however it remains to be seen if he can carry a more full load as the feature back. There isn’t a ton of proven experience behind him, so let’s see how effective this running game can be throughout a seventeen game season. At receiver we mentioned the departure of Adam Thielen, yet it’s possible this group will be even better with the addition of rookie Jordan Addison. The Vikings have the luxury of bringing Addison along slowly if need be as K.J. Osborn has proven very capable as a supporting threat to All-Pro Justin Jefferson. Last year’s early season trade for T.J. Hockenson was one of the most underrated personnel moves across the league. He gives Minnesota a matchup advantage nearly every week.
Brian Flores enters as the new defensive coordinator for the purple and gold, and that may be the biggest offseason addition within the entire NFC North. Coaching matters in the NFL, and this team now goes from one of the worst coordinators in the league, to potentially one of the best with the addition of the former Dolphins head coach. Flores will earn the respect of his players and will toughen up what was one of the softest defenses in the league. The front seven is decent, and although it looked like they might not end up retaining defensive end Danielle Hunter, they ultimately did. This is huge as he is really the key to their pass rush and everything they want to do on that end. Adding Marcus Davenport should give them a little extra muscle in that department as well, even though his measurables weren’t great in New Orleans. The secondary is still a little bit of a concern as the cornerback position has some question marks. Byron Murphy should be able to step in where Patrick Peterson left off, but beyond that it’s anything but a sure bet. Harrison Smith is still chugging along guiding the youngsters, but at what point does father time catch up with him?
2023 Strength of Schedule – 15th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
Yes, this team was very lucky in 2022, and yes the defense on this team is not great, and yes they lost Dalvin Cook and so on and so on. Even with all of those dynamics, we’re not ready to fully give up on the Vikings in the NFC North. We fully expect them to be right there with the Lions and possibly the Packers as the North could be one of the most competitive visions on the entire league. If the defense can improve even just a little bit with Brian Flores, they could win double digit games again and capture the North for the second year in a row.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets, Team Totals – Over
If you were studious enough to figure out the formula you know that Kirk Cousins played very well against sub .500 competition and very poorly against over .500 competition. This offense should be more explosive with the new coaching staff effectively utilizing some of the matchup advantages they should have on most weeks. Expect, and bet on a lot of points, especially when they’re playing at home.
Fantasy Players To Watch – T.J. Hockenson (TE)
If you have the top pick in a draft, don’t over think it and just go ahead and select Justin Jefferson. Hockenson will be one of the early tight ends off the board, but he won’t be first round early like Travis Kelce. He could see next tier production behind just Kelce and realistically has a shot to be the second most productive tight end in the league. If he’s healthy he’s almost guaranteed to be in the top four. Get him on your roster and you’ll have a matchup advantage at that position nearly every week.
