Boston’s decisive victory Friday night was more than welcome coming out of the All-Star Break. Plus it jumpstarted a busy weekend on the diamonds that provides a bright spot for the week ahead. A strong outing from Brayan Bello and late run support got us to the pay window, shaking off my call for a lower run-scoring environment at Wrigley. At least the right club did damage that night. That said, the new week starts off with a Solo Shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-17-2023. BOL and see you on Wednesday morning!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
NEW YORK YANKEES @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS (LAA -120, 9)
L Severino (R) vs. G Canning (R)
Luis Severino has been quite the disappointment this season once the post-IL honeymoon was over. Since the pair of good outings to start his delayed season, the 29-year-old righty posted a 9.48 ERA and 7.34 FIP/5.39 xFIP over 7 starts. The long ball has crippled most of his outings, but how much of these struggles can be attributed to a chunky .338 BABIP that has only gotten worse as the season progresses? It’s caused me to put Luis in a mid-4.00s to low-5.00s range to be conservative.
Squaring up Severino tonight is an Angels lineup in good form despite the absence of Mike Trout. Key lefties Shohei Ohtani and Mickey Moniak have firm advantages against a depressed 13.1% K rate and 6.79 FIP/5.93xFIP against left-handers. Even so, L.A.’s righty hitters like Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe should not feel uncomfortable. Hell, this might drive home a good case for an Angels team total wager though this market is not developed yet this morning.
Holding Up Their End of the Bargain
On the flip side, the Yankees come into SoCal after a weekend in Denver. The Rocky Mountain Hangover could be the prime factor that leads to a depressed effectiveness at the plate. Plus New York is already at a disadvantage with a heavy righty lineup. Which is why their weak side could help bail out a mid-4.00s level of pitcher in Griffin Canning. That modest rating is earned by shaving down his walk rate to a career-low 7.1% while maintaining a reasonable 22+ K rate. The .263 BABIP and 46.5% hard hit rate, well, that’s another story altogether. Canning has frustrated lineups here and there with a heavy ground ball approach but the sinker is anything but a plus pitch. That’s the balancing act between what could be a sluggish Yankees lineup and a pitcher who is ripe for the picking.
Open Door Policy
The first 5 inning over of 5 juiced to the over still has my attention even though my money is on the full game total this morning. What pulled me toward the game total is the state of these two bullpens. While Canning figures to pitch into or through the sixth inning tonight, Severino offers up the Yankees bullpen to the Angels for what could be 5+ innings of work. Both units were anything but sharp this weekend, continuing a negative trend established before the break. Adjustments should be made to the Yanks group, however, as their trip to Coors Field skews the raw numbers a bit.
On top of their general struggles, availability at the back end is a key constraint for New York. Can Aaron Boone go to Clay Holmes after pitching the last couple games? His work was relatively brisk and Michael King is rested after a long outing on Friday. Yet it’s the lack of handoff guys at the back end that figure to be most impactful with Wandy Peralta and Tommy Kahnle having put in work both Saturday and Sunday. That’s a big concern if Severino struggles to get through the 5th inning. Los Angeles’ relief unit lacks those availability issues but finds itself in an ugly state of affairs after posting a 10.93 ERA and 9.57 FIP/5.48 xFIP this weekend against Houston.
WAGER: Over 9 -110 (.825u)
There’s no shortage of small factors twisting this handicap around like a pretzel. Keeping it simple with the full game total indirectly hedges against some of these keys not coming to fruition. Luis Severino provides a key opportunity for scoring, as do both bullpens after tough starts to the second half. I chose to keep it straightforward and away from the first 5 inning total or either team total. BOL!
Heading for Home
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