Getting walked off by the Yankees yesterday afternoon wasn’t the best follow up to a decent Opening Day for our featured handicaps. Is it time to start firing on -200 favorites until I’m blue in the face? Not a chance! The MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-9-2022 rolls in with cash still in our pockets thanks to Tommy Lorenzo pushing me off the fence and onto the Tigers. Now that was a walkoff that I could use! And big thanks to Big Tasty for having me on his show, especially with our Astros bet coming through with their huge 7th inning. Onward and upward on this first weekend of the season…
2022 Featured Handicap Results
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS (-120)
Z. Plesac (R) vs. B. Keller (R)
As opposed to Opening Day, weather at Kauffman Stadium should be less turbulent and less conducive for shenanigans. Yes, the dropped fly ball on Thursday is still stuck in the back of my head. But today I flip-flop allegiances from the Guardians to the Royals with Brad Keller on the bump. Come again? That’s an iffy position after the 26-year-old sinker baller had a tougher 2021 campaign with significant dropoff to his 4-seamer and secondaries. And he finished Spring Training on a sour note, it’s even more questionable. Against a middling offense like Cleveland’s – especially against righties – ground ball contact can be a decent formula for success with a good infield defense behind him.
The key weakness that plagues Keller from time to time is walks. And when a guy like that has a season where the ball is leaving the park on you, the damage can really pile up. He started 2021 in this manner but eventually settled down from July onward after getting his slider rolling. Part of Brad’s first half struggles revolved around an obese BABIP through June that eventually came back down to earth. My modest expectations for the Royals’ starter still sits about a quarter run better than the Guardians’ Zach Plesac. K.C.’s hitters have a low average, high slugging history against Plesac – which may or may not be the right formula today. His ground ball and hard hit rates crept up last year while shedding some swing-and-miss ability after being dialed in during the 2020 sprint. Despite the weather being calmer today, the temps aren’t exactly conducive to a ton of offense.
The Difference Makers
Obviously there has not been enough time in the season to draw any meaningful conclusions. Neither lineup pops out at you as a powerful group, save Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes. Miles Straw gives the Guardians plenty of action at the top of the lineup and he can be a terror on the base paths. Those aspects lead to about a 3% edge to the visitor’s lineup without respect to pitcher. Defenses are both decent enough to support their contact pitchers, though I still hold K.C.’s relief unit as a deeper and more reliable group – notwithstanding the Guardians’ spectacular closer Emmanuel Clase. The key aspect that could turn this handicap upside down is if Plesac can gut out 6 innings and lessen the edge that the Royals should have once this one goes to the bullpen. I’ve used this scenario to stress test my handicap at -125, so any limitations on Zach is a further advantage for the Royals.
WAGER: Royals -120
This -120 price essentially sets these teams close to par with the strategic home field advantage going to the Royals. As opposed to Thursday where I dialed in on Shane Bieber for the first 5 innings, I want the bullpens to work via the Royals side. The K.C. offense has some bright spots like Bobby Witt, Jr. and Whitt Merrifield though I have to be realistic and underweight them until I see more. Even with that discount I am backing Brad Keller in his first start of the season once again. Of course I am hoping that it is much more successful than 2021’s Opening Day outing – and Spring Training for that matter.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-175)
M. Keller (R) vs. M. Mikolas (R)
Am I severely understating St. Louis’ offense to begin the season? Are my expectations for both of today’s starting pitchers too high? Miles Mikolas is back after dealing with injury setback after injury setback. Granted, the 33-year-old’s velocity was back on track in Spring Training and I hold out optimism for the ground ball pitcher against a suspect lineup. Being a contact pitcher against a low-slugging team has its benefits you could say. Plus the weather in St. Louis looks cool with a wind out to right, signaling little bias either way. Lefties like Daniel Vogelbach and Corey Dickerson could stand to benefit from this factor.
Mikolas’ counterpart Mitch Keller enters the season as a bit of a bounceback candidate. No, not in the Cy Young sense by any means – just that the guy really put things together this offseason. Translating those gains in camp to live action in the regular season is another thing whatsoever. Keller’s velocity and control were noticeably better, giving Pittsburgh backers some hope for a good 2022 campaign. If his control is in fact sharpened, Keller’s walk issues should moderate and hide his Achilles heel. From a numbers perspective, 2021’s .388 BABIP and 4.30 FIP/4.90 xFIP presents mixed messages. But my key takeaway from 2021 is the guy was decent against right-handed hitters (4.47 FIP/4.17 xFIP) – and this Cardinals lineup is jam-packed full of righties. That might also explain why he hasn’t been terrible against St. Louis’ key cogs in limited action.
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 8.5 -108
I don’t want to get too deep into totals this early in the season, but this scenario painted a 7.5 on my dashboard with the Cardinals assumed not to bat in the 9th inning. St. Louis’ lineup could very well pop again like Thursday, especially if Mitch Keller has not righted the ship. That leads to more exposure to Pittsburgh’s subpar bullpen. But I am cautiously optimistic that these mid-4.00 FIP starters can keep the ball on the ground and make the opposing lineups play small ball to grind out runs. Sweating unders is a tradition unlike any other, and that’s what I’ll be doing this afternoon with this one. For a half unit, of course.
Heading for Home
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