After yesterday’s outbreak of low scoring games we had to put our research team of Yanni and D-Nice on the case. They’ve run multiple statistical analyses and made the executive decision to bet the under in every MLB game today. This should be interesting. As for me, I’m ready to finish the weekend off right with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-10-2022 on the heels of a couple sweat-filled Saturday afternoon wins. We sure love our unders, don’t we?
2022 Featured Handicap Results
HOUSTON ASTROS @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS (-110)
J. Urquidy (R) vs. J. Suarez (L)
24-year-old Jose Suarez gets the call to lead the Angels in the rubber match against AL West favorite Houston. The kid showed tremendous growth last season after taking his lumps in 2019 and getting next to no action in the shortened 2020 campaign. There’s plenty of things to like with his tendencies towards ground balls and decent swing-and-miss potential. All that comes courtesy of a significant velocity differential between his fastball and secondary curve/changeup offerings. Suarez may not have that velo pop and can lose his way around the strike zone on occasion – things that this disciplined Houston lineup can take advantage of. However, the Astros were stymied in Jose’s lone start against them in ’21 (5.2 IP, 3 H, 1R).
Opposing Suarez is a similar low-strikeout pitcher in Jose Urquidy whose outlook is also in the mid-4.00 FIP range. Both rely on their defenses to suppress run scoring, though Urquidy typically keeps the ball around the strike zone with decent swing-and-miss potential. His deceptive changeup deserves much of the credit for that. It helps keep hitters off-balance enough to effectively put the ball in play despite being a fly ball pitcher without high-K influence. That can be a dangerous proposition against a stout Angels lineup and is my biggest concern with backing Jose this afternoon.
Finding an Edge
Clearly both offenses are loaded for bear this season, notwithstanding significant injury effects like what L.A. experienced in 2021. Being that the Angels lineup is more lefty-heavy, Urquidy offers a 0.5- to 1.0-run improvement against left-handed hitters. That likely forces Matt Duffy and Jo Adell into the mix today. Sleeping on the Angels is a recipe for disaster but I come back to this Houston offense that sets up once again as a terror against southpaws. Not that they are significantly better with either handedness split – it’s more a matter of them raking against almost anyone.
There is one reservation I have with my previous statement: Jose Suarez was far from a slouch against right-handed hitters last year. A key caveat with this is Jose’s limited work as a starter in 2021 (71.0 IP). Regardless, the young lefty held opposing righties to a .202 average and a 3.56 FIP/4.15 xFIP. That was in stark contrast to a .315 average and 6.17 FIP/5.01 xFIP against fellow left-handers. I expect this wide gap to moderate through the ’22 season given how Suarez experienced .239 and .353 BABIPs against those splits, respectively, last year. Could he stifle the Astros again like he did on September 11th? Absolutely.
Bullpen outlook is very favorable overall and neither has any significant usage issues for the series finale. Houston’s Cristian Javier and Ryne Stanek ate plenty of bulk yesterday while L.A. leaned on their high-leverage pieces to close out the win. Although Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, and closer Raisel Iglesias were all used last night, don’t be surprised to see Iglesias back in the fold if crunch time ensues in the late innings.
WAGER: Astros First 5 Innings -110
Despite limited confidence in Jose Urquidy shutting down this highly-capable Angels lineup, I have to follow my numbers and back the Astros offense. That said, I handicap about a 4% higher edge on Houston in the first 5 innings as opposed to the full game wager. Shopping this line at multiple books gave a first 5 price right around the market’s price for the full game, so no need to prolong this issue – let’s resolve this thing in the 5th and close out the weekend behind the ‘Stros. I have to play my edges (or at least what I think are my edges).
While our research team peppered the board last night with unders, I hit three full game unders myself – all 1/2 unit wagers. That’s due to my overall uncertainty with totals this early in the season. But there is a measurable effect in the sub-60 degree venues where wind is not helping to mitigate the lower temperatures. So many balls have failed to carry in similar cool-weather situations so far this season, essentially requiring a small ball approach to put up runs – i.e., the hard way. In the interest of striking while the totals markets may have not quite dialed in on these effects, here are my three under plays today:
OAKLAND ATHLETICS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-200)
D. Jeffries (R) vs. Z. Eflin (R)
Conditions: Around 50 degrees with a strong wind cutting across the field around 17 mph. Is the temperature enough to stifle the Phillies’ big bats this afternoon? With such a large betting line in the home team’s favor, the better offense assumedly getting only 8 innings in which to hit is a plus. Rookie starter Daulton Jeffries may not make it through the 5th inning this afternoon though his profile as a put it in play righty with good secondaries and control helps the cause. The more experienced Zach Eflin has similar characteristics but with better swing-and-miss stuff. If I have any concerns with Eflin it would be his rise in hard contact last season, though he managed to stay under the 4.00 FIP/xFIP threshold.
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 9 (+100)
NEW YORK METS @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS (+120)
C. Carrasco (R) vs. E. Fedde (R)
Conditions: Around 53 degrees with a strong wind cutting across the field around 16 mph. As opposed to the pitching matchup in Philadelphia, Erick Fedde causes more concern to the under. He’s a low-quality contact pitcher with a sketchy hard contact profile against a capable lineup. Counterpart Carlos Carrasco’s brief return to action last season was less than stellar, though his 5.22 FIP/4.32 xFIP discrepancy in those 12 starts was heavily influenced by his yielding 12 home runs in 53.2 innings. Even if we don’t get a 4.00 FIP level of production from Cookie this afternoon, cool temps should help to moderate those concerns. 10 runs is simply too much here with a full understanding that Fedde + the Nats’ relief unit could be a recipe for disaster.
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 10 (-108)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ COLORADO ROCKIES (+150)
J. Urias (L) vs. A. Senzatela (R)
Conditions: Around 52 and calm. 13 combined runs in a pair of games at Coors Field sounds a little funny, eh? Pitching has been quite good to open the season for these NL West clubs and the weather has not helped their run-scoring cause. In full disclosure, Julio Urias is my lone NL Cy Young award futures ticket this season. But when it comes to facing off against the Rockies, Julio has been far from Cy Young material. Guys like Garrett Hampson, Ryan McMahon, Kris Bryant, and CJ Cron have had decent success against him. Plus Urias coughed up 4 runs in each of three of four starts against Colorado last year. The lone exception: his first start of 2021 in which he went 7.0 IP and gave up 3 runs on 1 hit.
Antonio Senzatela has not been warmly welcomed by the Dodgers either, having little success against most of this lineup excepting Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy. Unders at Coors are funny animals, but the conditions are right and today’s starters are conservatively low-4.00 FIP arms. Breaking 10 runs in the series finale should be a challenge barring a colossal meltdown by either Urias or Senzatela, especially if both can make it through the 5th inning without disaster.
WAGER: [0.5u] Under 11.5 (-105)
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball plays and season previews. Want us to deliver our newest content directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
