Miles Mikolas gave up the 3 runs that was expected of him in the Thursday afternoon divisional showdown. Fortunately for us Cardinals backers, he did so over 6 solid innings and the bullpen was stout enough to hold the 6-3 margin. Pittsburgh’s Musgrove lived up to what appeared to be a propensity for homers at PNC Park by yielding 3 deep balls. The +107 wager keeps our momentum positive post-ASB with a 6-3 mark for +3.87 units. It’s the dog days of summer and we’re grinding in low gear.

All statistics aside, the Cardinals have been winning, and doing so by any means necessary. They now sit tied for the NL Central lead with the Cubs but step up in class from the Reds and Pirates to the Astros tonight. When the HOU-STL line opened Thursday evening at HOU +105 I dove in to the matchup only to find that it had jumped to HOU -115 in short time. After passing on that game, I didn’t have to look too much further to find Friday’s Solo Shot…

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

Pay to Play: Reds -126 (Castillo)

Luis Castillo is back on the mound in his kingdom, Great American Ball Park. Last Saturday’s wager against the Cardinals relied heavily on his performance, mainly because of his dominance at home. The F5 play didn’t get there as Mikolas dueled with Castillo through 5 innings for a 0-0 tie. When the dust settled, the Reds got the well-earned W against a hot St. Louis club (their only win of the 4-game set).

I’m typically not a huge fan of laying more than -120 but the context of tonight’s game adds to a statistical edge for the Redlegs. Cincinnati is fresh off a day off while the Rockies left D.C. after a hard-fought victory that capped a 4-game set with the Nationals. Colorado played those 4 games in 3 days, including a double-header on Wednesday.

Cincy is most likely to be without rookie Nick Senzel for tonight’s game, leaving a considerable hole in the outfield and lineup. Though Colorado should have all of its key personnel, their bullpen went through the ringer in Washington and could be a serious liability tonight. Their relievers pitched 12.2 innings over the past 3 days and yielded 15 earned runs.

Marquez vs. Castillo

I laid a strong case for backing Luis Castillo at home prior to his start against the Cardinals last Saturday. The body of evidence remains the same and has been bolstered by a 1-run (solo HR), 6-inning outing that evening. In his last 3 home starts (vs. CHC, MIL, STL), he’s gone 20.2 innings with 9 hits, 2 earned runs (2 solo HRs), and 19 K/5 BB.

German Marquez is a guy who has performed considerably better on the road than he has at home. This shouldn’t be surprising since home is Coors Field. However, he’s about twice as good away from Denver when looking at his key indicators. His 0.88 road WHIP is right on par with Castillo’s home 0.89 WHIP, though .198 AVG/.354 SLG is not quite as stellar as his counterpart’s .155 AVG/.219 SLG at home.

Since the ASB, Marquez has made a pair of road starts against NYY and ARI. He wasn’t quite as sharp, giving up 3 home runs and 6 earned runs over 13 innings. Marquez has faced some hot offenses after the break that included a disastrous 11-earned run outing against the Giants in Colorado. It’s tough to say where his current form rests in the context of this less-prolific Reds offense.

Weighing all the Factors

It’s not unreasonable to expect Marquez to have a decent showing, though his performance will likely be overshadowed by Castillo’s. Like Colorado, Cincy has dropped out of playoff contention in recent weeks. However, they showed some resiliency by taking 2 of 3 in Milwaukee. They’re only 1-5 in their last 6 at home and got that last home win behind Castillo.

Colorado is a bit gassed after playing 7 road games in the past 7 days. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 games, 2-8 in their last 10 road games, and are 21-31 on the road this season. The Rockies scored 8 runs in those 2 wins but could not break the 4-run mark in 6 of their 8 losses.

Cincinnati’s offense is not scaring anyone right now, so a win will most likely depend on Castillo delivering 6 shut-down innings and the bullpen locking the game down. Raisel Iglesias has not been good in recent weeks, which is concerning. Having Thursday off gives the Reds’ relievers a big leg up on the Rockies. Their workhorse Michael Lorenzen, dependable Jared Hughes, and lefty Amir Garrett all stand to benefit from the rest.