Losing the game via three free throws in the final seconds is not the way you want to go down. Friday’s 61-60 loss to the Rider Broncs was a brutal way for Canisius to slip further down the MAAC standings. This result partially substantiated the premise of yesterday’s handicap that Rider was giving them too many points in their get-even spot. Tough loss for the Canisius faithful, much-appreciated win for us. It’s a Big Slate Saturday and we’ve got a handicap for two games in the Road Dog Report for 2/8/2020.
(669) Florida International @ Florida Atlantic -2.5
The 16-8 Florida International Panthers take a short drive up the coast to visit the 14-10 Florida Atlantic Owls. Both teams have a lot of work to do if they want to challenge North Texas for the Conference USA lead. They sit at 7-4 and 6-5 in league play after each team entered Wednesday night’s matchup at 6-4. That’s right, these squads just played each other in Miami three days ago as International got the 69-50 win.
Florida Atlantic had their two-game win streak snapped Wednesday night and clearly want nothing more than to return the favor this afternoon. The Owls take a fair amount of three point shots, which can lead to volatile outcomes especially considering the’ve hit only 31.6% of those shots in eleven CUSA games. Atlantic offers a trio of guards in Cornelius Taylor, Michael Forrest, and Richardson Maitre that are solid but unremarkable. Granted, International’s guard package of Trejon Jacob, Eric Lovett, and Antonio Daye, Jr. does not offer an appreciable advantage on the offensive end either.
The Panthers head back on the road (out of their own building, anyways) after three home games and are riding a two-game win streak. They move the ball well and typically do not put themselves into tough positions by fouling too much. On the flip side, they are a collective 64.4% from the line and have been out-rebounded by a margin of -48 in conference games. Florida International’s strong suit is their defense and their front court. 6’6″ Devon Andrews is a savvy scorer that is willing to test his perimeter shooting – albeit, with hit-or-miss results. 6’7″, 250-pound Osasumwen Osaghae has a strong inside game and is arguably their best man on the boards.
Run it Back
Wednesday night’s game accentuated these teams’ apparent traits. FIU’s Andrews and Osaghae combined for 28 points, with 9 of Andrews points coming from beyond the arc. FAU jacked up sixteen three point shots but connected only on one of them. This was indicative of a 34.5% shooting night in addition to 22 turnovers. The Panthers’ pressure defense has generated a healthy amount of turnovers this season, which pairs well with an Owls team that is susceptible to giving up the ball. International’s box score was not pretty either, and the 19-point win was primarily a result of converting points from their opportunistic play.
The question us handicappers are posed with is whether they can repeat that performance. I cannot expect FAU to shoot 34.5% again, though it is possible if they have another ice cold night from beyond the arc. 6’10” Aleksandar Zecevic came up big on Wednesday with 13 points (the only Owl in double digits). Zecevic appears to have taken much of 6’11” Karlis Silins’ playing time and has capitalized on it recently. He and 6’7″ forward Jailyn Ingram have the ability to go toe-to-toe with FIU’s front court. Ingram had a bad night in Miami with six turnovers and 2-of-7 shooting.
On the Money
Naturally, the number flipped from FIU -3 at home on Wednesday to FAU -2.5 this afternoon. International’s 12-10 ATS record on the season is diminished when you dissect their 1-3 ATS record in conference road games. They go up against an 11-11 ATS Atlantic squad that has performed significantly better in home conference games (4-2 ATS). Furthermore, they’ve held it down at FAU Arena, where they are 5-1 against CUSA teams. I won’t belabor the fact that I took +2.5 with FIU today for two main reasons: 1) the home/road splits are all but irrelevant here, and 2) FIU’s strength in creating turnovers meshes well with FAU’s susceptibility to cough up the rock. The Owls could have a spectacular day shooting from beyond the arc, but I am playing the percentages that turnovers will dictate this matchup again.
(789) Northern Arizona @ Weber State -2
The 9-14 Weber State Wildcats get a visit from the 13-8 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks tonight. NAU is on a 6-1 run that has boosted them to 7-5 in the Big Sky Conference after a rough 1-4 start. The Wildcats need to pick up the pace with their 5-7 conference record, although they are on a nice 3-1 streak themselves. These teams met in Flagstaff on January 4th with the Lumberjacks getting the 72-64 win early on the conference schedule.
The Lumberjacks were one of three featured teams in my December 28th handicap against Montana. They covered the +7.5 in a 79-72 loss against the Griz; with the deciding factor for cashing the ticket being the ability to beat the closing line of +6. My assessment of this team from six weeks ago still has some relevance today:
Northern Arizona is a solid shooting team that exhibits good control both with the ball and on defense. I expect a good offensive output somewhere in the low-to-mid 70s from this experienced team that has gelled in their out-of-conference play. They have a trio of guards that can knock down some shots, led by the savvy sophomore Cameron Shelton. Shelton gets to the free throw line and can grab boards in support of their sharpshooters, Luke Avdalovic and Ted McCree. The Lumberjacks have an upperclassmen front court with Brooks DeBisschop and Jonathan Andre, who are solid down low and very strong on the glass.
Interestingly enough, the 12/28 game at Montana was 6’4″ Cameron Satterwhite’s first start of the season. He has started every game since and put up double-digit points in eight of those twelve starts. NAU continues to shoot well from beyond the arc at 38.1% in league games (2nd best in the Big Sky). Forwards Brooks DeBisschop (ten straight double-digit scoring games) and Bernie Andre (strong in his last five games) comprise a solid rotation in the middle, but neither guy did much in the previous game against the Wildcats.
In the Wildcats’ House
Weber State does not boast a dominant inside game, so it’s not unreasonable to say that tonight’s rematch will be another guard-centric affair. Wildcat forwards Michal Kozak and Tim Fuller give them size but marginal rebounding and no overwhelming offensive prowess. In fact, this team has been out-rebounded by a margin of -89 in twelve Big Sky games. NAU did their part by snagging 29 boards to Weber State’s 20 in their previous matchup. The Wildcats played a clean game in that game, though perimeter shooting played a huge role in the Lumberjacks win. Weber State shot 8-26 from beyond the arc while NAU was more efficient at 9-16.
The Wildcats routinely get it done with a pair of guards that can take over any given game. The electric Jerrick Harding had only two single-digit scoring games this entire season, averages 22.8 PPG, and just dropped 44 points on Sacramento State. Oddly enough, he only scored 6 points in the January meeting. Harding’s running mate Cody John shoots 46.6% from beyond the arc, 82.9% from the line, and picked up his partner’s slack with 24 points against NAU. Northern Arizona cannot realistically expect to shut both of these dynamic guards down, but can they limit one of them like they did in January?
On the Money
Northern Arizona is .500 as an away team in six league games, both straight up and against the spread. Similarly, Weber State is 3-3 in six home Big Sky games and 4-2 ATS. With little to read from this, why take a position in this one? Hell, NAU is even on a 1-4 ATS skid while Weber State has covered three of four.
We have the fact that NAU beat the Wildcats in Flagstaff a month ago, covering the -4 in the process. Their current ATS skid has taken place during a 4-1 straight up streak in which they laid points in all five games. Thursday’s 88-87 win at Idaho State is a good example of the Lumberjacks getting a road win but not covering the -2 spread. I am a buyer of Northern Arizona catching a bucket tonight as opposed to laying points on the road.
Pitchers and Catchers Report Soon!
Spring Training is almost here and I am absolutely pumped for my favorite handicapping season to begin. MLB divisional previews and season win total projections are in development and will be dropping soon. I moved on another win total in the NL Central yesterday, as posted on the MLB page at BetCrushers.com. Stay tuned for new articles by following us on Twitter or subscribing to email alerts below.
