Friday night MACtion delivered an excellent game between Akron and Kent State last night. The 68-67 Golden Flashes victory had everything a hoops fan wants in a game: big dunks, a bunch of lead changes, and a three-point attempt to close it out. The offenses were held in check for their standards, but the Zips +2.5 ticket got there with a modest amount of sweat. Let’s kick off February and the Super Bowl weekend with the Road Dog Report for 2/1/2020.
(703) Cal Baptist @ Seattle -1.5
If you’ve been following our NCAAB coverage, you probably know that we are huge fans of the Cal Baptist Lancers. They were our featured Road Dog on January 29th at Utah Valley, where the Lancers got another cover on the road. Today they face the 11-11 Seattle Redhawks who are lurking behind them in the WAC standings. Seattle loves to play with pace, which is a contrast in style with CBU.
Seattle has transitioned their game plan to rely more on the perimeter shot since entering WAC play. They’ve hit 36.4% from beyond the arc in their seven conference games, which is significantly better than the 30.5% season-long mark. Guards Terrell Brown and Morgan Means are the lifeblood of the Redhawks offense. Brown is on fire, averaging over 25 PPG in the last three games. Means is fresh off of a 19-point, 13-rebound outing at Bakersfield. These guys will test the limits of the Lancer backcourt consisting of Milan Acquaah, Ferron Flavors, and Brandon Boyd.
CBU should not have a problem with quieting the Seattle big men, as Myles Carter and Jordan Dallas are not key offensive threats. The Lancers’ De’Jon Davis and Zach Pirog are very good defenders that can control the glass. Both teams match up well offensively, though I have a tough time handicapping which squad will dictate the pace this afternoon.
On the Money
Cal Baptist continues to roll with their 5-2 ATS mark in the WAC and 5-1 ATS road record. Seattle’s 9-11 ATS performance is lackluster on face value, but is better when you dive into today’s scenario. They are 4-3 ATS in conference play and 2-1 ATS in those games at home. The troubling thing is that the bookmakers appear to have adjusted to the Lancers’ success. After being a Pick ’em at Utah Valley on Wednesday, my guess would have been Cal Baptist +4 at Seattle today. That said, my ratings make CBU 3.5 points better on a neutral. I realize that I am taking a slightly short number but must roll with a Lancers squad (+1.5) that continues to get us the money.
(773) Bradley @ Loyola-Chicago -5.5
Today’s primetime MVC matchup features two of the three squads deadlocked in second place. The 15-7 Bradley Braves face the 14-8 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, and one team will push forward with a 7-3 conference record when this game is over. Loyola is a tough customer at home with a 9-2 record on the season and 4-0 in Missouri Valley Conference play.
Picking Up the Slack
Bradley continues to be without one of their leading men, Elijah Childs, who has been out with a hand injury since their January 4th game at Northern Iowa. We featured the Braves for their January 15th game at Missouri State; the third game without Childs. The handicap called attention to Darrell Brown, Nate Kennell, and Ja’Shon Henry; all of whom are still producing and doing their best to fill the hole left by Childs’ absence. We have seen the 6’4″ Fin, Ville Tahvanainen emerge as a versatile contributor who is getting more opportunities to shine. Bradley continues to lead the MVC on the defensive end (39.2% opponents’ FG) and on the boards (+53).
Loyola looks to get back on track after dropping their last two games. Those came on the road after winning four in a row; three of which took place at the Gentile Center. The Ramblers play at a more deliberate pace and have used their good defense to cruise to their six conference wins. Their prowess with high-percentage shooting (55.0% in MVC) is due, in part, to the dominant play of 6’9″, 255-pound Cameron Krutwig. Krutwig posted two double-doubles in his last three games and is a machine. He delivers over 30 minutes per game and rarely needs to sit due to foul trouble. Bradley’s Ja’Shon Henry and Koch Bar will undoubtedly have their hands full with Krutwig.
Despite having the dominant big man, the Ramblers have been out-rebounded in their nine MVC games. Bradley must add to their league-leading 96 offensive boards tonight to deal with this significant mismatch. Loyola 6’6″ guard Tate Hall is an outside threat who uses the perimeter shot sparingly, but effectively (44.9% 3PT). The Braves should have the backcourt edge if they can hold Marquise Kennedy to one of his “off nights”. Kennedy has shown that he can drop 17+, although this is hit-or-miss and Bradley has the defense to keep him in check.
On the Money
Bradley has exceeded market expectations with their 13-8 ATS record. They’ve been on the rise since entering conference play, going 7-2 ATS in the MVC and 3-1 ATS on the road. Loyola’s 10-11 season ATS mark is meh, but the Ramblers have made their backers money at home by going 3-1 ATS. I rate Loyola a hair better than Bradley on a neutral court, so anything in the +5 range or better looks good from that perspective. My biggest concern is how Bradley laid an egg in their last road game after covering their first three Road Dog spots in the MVC. I expect a slugfest in Chicago tonight with Bradley’s defense keeping them in it to the end; give me the Braves +5.5.
Super Bowl Weekend
The big game is tomorrow and you can catch our Super Bowl preview and prop rundown at BetCrushers.com. Stay in touch by signing up for daily email alerts or by following us on Twitter. BOL!!!
