We escaped Monday’s action unscathed after the Royals squeezed out enough to cover the first 5 inning total while falling just short of the full game total. Three homers and a timely RBI double should have been good enough to pull it off but the solo bombs weren’t strong enough. After a couple days off from producing article – one planned and the other unplanned – it’s time to get back at it with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-29-2021.
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants (+110)
Our regular readers can probably guess where my money is at for the Dodgers/Giants rubber match this afternoon. And I have to say that waking up this morning to see that the “birthday boy Buehler dominates rival again” in an 8-0 rout by LA did not make me feel great about it. Then again, the books barely adjusted the price for today’s game from the overnight +110 line. It is now +105 at some shops and there are still a couple rogue +110s out there. Fortunately I do not have buyer’s remorse with the Giants – otherwise, I would not be writing about them.
Walker Buehler’s 7 innings of three-hit ball and Anthony DeSclafani’s implosion were extreme-ish results of what those starting pitchers have done against their division rivals season. Now the waters get a little muddier with David Price and Johnny Cueto on the bump today. Heading into last night’s contest, neither offense had been consistently clicking on all cylinders recently. In the seven-day period ending on Tuesday, LA slashed .195/.249/.354 with a 67 wRC+. The Giants .226/.305/.437 slash line and 102 wRC+ was better statistically, yet their batting average sure leaves a lot to be desired. And losing Brandon Crawford ten days ago is a firm blow to the San Francisco lineup.
Situational Offensive Factors
- LAD: 102.1
- SF: 109.4
You couldn’t tell from last night that the Dodgers typically produce about 20% less offense away from Chavez Ravine. Combine that with a healthy lift for facing a righty and I gauge their lineup to be right about on par with their post-ASB level. On the flip side, this San Francisco team produces quite well at home despite Oracle Park firmly having a pitcher’s bias. Plus the Giants are known for their strong platoon against left-handed pitching with Darin Ruf and Austin Slater off the bench. Yet it is still a weakness of theirs to the tune of about a 10% drop-off in offensive production. I cautiously give San Francisco the edge at the plate independent of opposing pitching, though they have not shown their home field edge in this series by any means.
D. Price (L) vs. J. Cueto (R)
Do the Giants get a break with 35-year-old David Price today? The twenty-something duo of Julio Urias and Walker Buehler held them to 2 runs in the first two games of this series, which could mark the beginning of a San Francisco slump. Price makes his fourth consecutive start of the season and his first against San Francisco in the 2021 campaign. The veteran starter-turned-reliever ramped up from 3.0 IP against the Diamondbacks before the break to 4.0 IP in Colorado and then 5.2 IP against the Rockies last Friday. If there is any sign of hope for the Giants, the league’s worst road offense was able to touch up Price for 3 runs and a pair of homers in his longest outing of the season.
Manager Dave Roberts doesn’t necessarily need Price to go 6 innings today for a good shot at winning this series. Their bullpen is fairly well rested after Buehler went 7 innings last night. The veteran southpaw has been more than a serviceable fill-in for the injured Clayton Kershaw, though the stakes are a bit higher against the Giants than they were against Arizona and Colorado. Nonetheless, Price has exhibited great control this season while getting nearly 1 strikeout per inning. Most of his impressive 55.2% ground ball rate – a key performance indicator – is attributed to relief appearances and was somewhat hit-or-miss in the last five outings though. Still, his 37.0% hard hit rate is right in line with his final two seasons in Boston and the cutter continues to be sharp. And he deserves a ton of credit for putting up a 3.95 FIP/3.58 xFIP in 40.1 innings.
Is Deception Enough Against the Dodgers?
At this point in Johnny Cueto’s 14-year MLB career, the shimmy and his bag of tricks have been good enough to produce a 4.01 FIP/3.95 xFIP. But his trend of giving up the long ball worries me, especially with a wind blowing out today – 11 homers in his last eight outings; 6 of which came in the last five home starts. Plus a 38.0% hard hit rate is Cueto’s worst mark in the Statcast era. Somehow, his low-90s fastball is as effective as it has been in quite a few years. Cueto needs to be especially deceptive in this first start against the Dodgers this season. The LA lineup showed up in full force last night and is stacked with hitters who have been deadly against ol’ Johnny.
Dodgers Hitters’ Slash Lines vs. Johnny Cueto
- Max Muncy: .429/.500/1.143
- Cody Bellinger: .304/.360/.565
- Justin Turner: .395/.439/.658
San Francisco should be thankful that Corey Seager (.385/.390/.744 vs. Cueto) is on the IL. Yet the veteran will have his hands full with that trio and the rest of LA’s tough lineup. Johnny lasted only 5 innings in his last couple starts, so I expect about as much from him today. Fortunately, the Giants bullpen has been one of the better units all season and one of the best since the break. Their trailing seven-day performance going into Wednesday’s game of 2.17 FIP/4.17 xFIP is significantly better than LA’s 5.31 FIP/5.23 xFIP.
The Dodgers used only one reliever last night and essentially brings their full complement to the table this afternoon – for better or worse. Conversely, San Francisco dug deep into their long and middle relief to finish off the final five innings after DeSclafani’s exit. Yet they still have solid arms like Jay Jackson and Jarlin Garcia ready to sub in for Cueto, while co-closers Tyler Rogers and Jake McGee are definitely ready to roll.
WAGER: Giants +110
As much as Johnny Cueto concerns me against this Dodgers lineup, this game could very well be decided by the bullpens. Johnny tossing LA a couple bombs in the early innings might be the death blow to my wager – so I am mentally prepared for a big letdown at Oracle Park. But if the Giants can keep it close before the managers make their calls to the bullpens, the late innings should be advantageous for the home team. That was the rationale behind my initial read to go under the game total of 8.5 runs. But Cueto’s vulnerability to the long ball, the wind blowing out, and San Francisco’s strength at home pushed me into taking the plus money this afternoon rather than the under. Like most of my bets, this one is not pretty by any sense of the imagination. And you truly need a tough stomach to back Johnny against a confident Dodgers lineup!
Around the Horn
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