Tuesday MACtion got a little weird when coronavirus concerns on the campus of Miami of Ohio postponed last night’s showdown with the Chippewas. Thankfully, I took the morning off from writing up a full handicap on that one. That break was well-deserved after a big swing-and-miss on Sacramento State Monday night. Rested and ready to roll, it’s time for the Road Dog Report for 1/29/2020.
(845) Cal Baptist @ Utah Valley pk
The 14-6 Cal Baptist Lancers take a trip up I-15 for a Wednesday WAC battle against the 9-13 Utah Valley Wolverines. The upstart Lancers’ strong season rolls on as they try to run down conference-leader New Mexico State. They come in with a 4-2 WAC record while the Wolverines sit back in the pack at 3-4. Utah Valley has a 4-4 record on their floor but the Lancers have not been fazed too badly by travel with their 3-2 mark on the road.
A Personal Favorite
I’ll come clean by saying that Cal Baptist has been one of my favorite (i.e., most profitable) teams of the 2019-20 season. The Lancers were feature handicaps twice already this season: January 11th at Grand Canyon and January 8th at Bakersfield, delivering as outright winners in both spots as a Road Dog. They haven’t lost on the road since the 82-62 game at Cal on November 15th. OK, to be honest, they’ve only played those two aforementioned away games in the meantime. Regardless, this team does not appear to suffer a significant drop-off when playing away from Riverside.
The Lancers’ two conference losses came at the hands of New Mexico State (86-71) and Missouri-Kansas City (67-57) on Saturday. CBU shot 38.2% from the field against UMKC in one of their worst perimeter-shooting games at 6-24 from deep. My previous handicaps for this team highlighted Ferron Flavors, Jr. and Milan Acquaah as Baptist’s key offensive threats. Those two continue to hold down the role as the collective centerpiece of this squad with consistently good play. Acquaah has only two single-digit scoring games this season and Flavors is usually good for 15+ points. However, I neglected to give 5th-year transfer Brandon Boyd his due. Boyd is coming off of a bad night against UMKC with 2 made free throws and 0-6 from the field. Despite that 2-point dud, he’s put up 113 points in their six league games.
Plagued by Inconsistency
Utah Valley needs more consistency from their backcourt. Guard T.J. Washington has the hot hand right now, having scored 62 points in the last three games. His production during this stretch came via 9-of-20 from beyond the arc and 27 made free throws. Outside of Washington, however, the guard play has been lackluster. Oklahoma State transfer Brandon Averitte has been quiet lately, UNLV transfer Trey Woodbury plays a diminished role off of the bench, and Jamison Overton pops up with few big games here and there.
The Wolverines big men must deliver a strong game tonight. 6’7″ Casdon Cardine is very good inside, handles the ball well, and is strong on the glass. Plus, Cardine can step outside and knock down the three-ball (39.4%). He is joined in the front court by 6’7″ Isaiah White, who is also a good rebounder and inside scoring threat. They’ll have to go toe-to-toe with CBU’s competent bigs, 6’7″ De’Jon Davis and 6’11” Zach Pirog. Davis and Pirog are not box score stuffers, but they play key roles in a Lancers defense yielding only 44.4% of two-point shots to their opponents. If Utah Valley’s Cardine and White can make hay down low, the Lancers could be in trouble.
If all else fails, they could hope for the Lancers to have back-to-back poor shooting games. They’ve drawn a good number of fouls to get to the free throw line, but have largely failed to capitalize with a 67.8% rate at the stripe in league play. Contrast this to Cal Baptist, who gets less opportunities at the line but makes up for it with a 79.9% rate in their six WAC games. My ratings have the Lancers a solid 8 points better on a neutral, despite struggling with a better New Mexico State squad and the ‘Roos on Saturday. UMKC is in a group of similarly-rated teams that CBU has excelled against, including their two Road Dog opponents of Bakersfield and Grand Canyon.
On the Money
Cal Baptist has done well for their backers this season by posting a 12-5 ATS record and 4-1 ATS on the road. They are 4-2 ATS in the WAC, as opposed to Utah Valley’s 3-4 ATS league mark. Furthermore, the Wolverines are 7-12 ATS overall and 0-5 ATS at home. I recognize that the ATS records take more of a back-seat role when the point spread is a pick ’em. That said, Baptist has delivered two outright WAC wins as Road Dogs (Bakersfield and Grand Canyon) and UVU is 1-1 (0-2 ATS) in their two conference home games.
Both teams disappointed against conference-leader NMSU and the 11-11 UMKC ‘Roos. Lancers’ coach Rick Croy has this team well prepared on a nightly basis and I have no hesitation backing them off of a disappointing loss. They’ve been great on the road and face a Utah Valley team that hasn’t shown much home-court dominance. The Wolverines need an overwhelming performance from their two big men, another huge game from Washington, and at least one other guard to post 12+ points to topple a rolling Lancers squad tonight. I’ll happily back a much better Cal Baptist team as a pick ’em, banking on solid defense and a strong collective shooting performance from Acquaah, Flavors, and Boyd.
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