Sunday’s on-court action took a back seat to reality as the news about Kobe Bryant’s death shook us and sports fans everywhere. The tragedy certainly put the games and betting action in perspective. When the dust settled, my featured sides ended in a 1-1 split. Monmouth started the day with an exciting 94-88 win over Iona, but Quinnipiac could not keep up with a dominant Siena squad. With a heavy heart, we move on with the Road Dog Report for 1/27/2020.
(867) Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona -3
Monday is Big Sky night as the 11-6 Sacramento State Hornets roll into Flagstaff to meet the 10-7 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. Both teams are squarely in the middle of the conference pack at 4-4. The Hornets are seeking their first road victory since entering league play, though it is tough taking on a Lumberjacks team that is 2-1 in the Big Sky Conference at the Walkup Skydome.
Sacramento State’s strategy is to control the game with a deliberate pace and let their big men eat. Northern Arizona, on the other hand, has feasted from behind the arc in league play. These teams met in Sacramento on January 9th and played to a 64-57 Hornets win. They had a 20-point halftime win and did what they could to hold on down the stretch. The Lumberjacks did not make much noise from the perimeter (4-11) that night and were out-rebounded by a margin of 30-18.
Feeding the Big Men
When it comes to bigs, the Hornets employ two in the front court and have a good-sized guard in 6’6″ Bryce Fowler. Their guards are more of a conduit to the inside game, though their biggest contributions are on the defensive end. Sacramento State has given up the least amount of points in the Big Sky (60.1 PPG) but have scored even less (58.9 PPG). They’ve blocked 43 shots and grabbed 94 offensive rebounds in their eight league games.
Senior 6’8″ center Joshua Patton leads the Hornets with 14 PPG and a solid presence on the boards. He had a great day against NAU in their earlier meeting, scoring 23 points on 10-13 shooting and snagging 7 rebounds. Patton is joined by the 6’7″ Italian, Ethan Esposito, who is fresh off of a season-high 22-point game in their 66-55 win over Portland State. These two are key to the Hornets staking their claim around the basket, where they must continue to thrive tonight with good shot selection, offensive rebounds, and blocked shots.
Heating Up from the Perimeter
The Lumberjacks’ biggest weakness is defending the high-percentage shot, though they have two capable big men of their own. 6’9″ Brooks DeBisschop is a rock solid interior player that is 56.5% from the field and has posted double-digit points in the last six games. He put up 15 in their loss at Sacramento State and is critical to slowing down the Hornets’ inside game. 6’7″ Bernie Andre just had a 20-point, 15-rebound performance in their 84-82 win against Portland State. Andre has come off the bench in their last three games (all wins) to provide 45 points and 30 rebounds.
NAU’s perimeter game gets a boost with the return of 6’4″ guard Ted McCree, who has made 39.3% of his shots from downtown. Luke Avdalovic is the Lumberjack sharpshooter that the Hornets must guard carefully. Avdalovic is 38-74 from beyond the arc this season and was red hot against Portland State, dropping 25 points on 7-11 three-point shooting. Cameron Satterwhite adds another dimension to their backcourt as an intuitive scorer. He had a poor 3-for-10 shooting game in these teams’ earlier meeting and would like nothing more than to defend his home court tonight with double digits.
On the Money
Neither team is in a comfortable position tonight. Northern Arizona (9-6 ATS) is 2-3 ATS at home and only 1-2 ATS in Big Sky home games. Sacramento State (11-4 ATS) may be 5-3 ATS away from home but has scuffled in league road games at 1-3 ATS. The Hornets were blown out in their last two road games: 52-71 at Northern Colorado and 49-79 at Southern Utah. NAU handled both of these teams on the road, grinding out close wins as big dogs in each game.
If you look squarely at the Northern Colorado and Southern Utah games as the best comps, the Lumberjacks are clearly the side tonight. Both teams played Portland State at home as their last matchup. NAU won 84-82 as 3.5-point favorites while Sacramento State beat them 66-55 as 5-point favorites. This is notable because the Portland State games took place after each squad played Northern Colorado and Southern Utah to much different outcomes. Oddsmakers made the Hornets 1.5 points better against this common opponent and my ratings make them about 2 points better than NAU on a neutral.
Each team has played four games since they last met in Sacramento. Sacramento State could not cover their last two road games and NAU failed to cover two as home favorites. The point spread has swung from Hornets -6 at home to Northern Arizona -3 at their house tonight. Oddsmakers are discounting the Hornets by 2-3 points because of their last two terrible road performances. They could certainly bomb out for the third time in a row as Road Dogs, but I’ll stick to my ratings and the factors outlined above. I cannot argue against the price from the book’s perspective, however, I am on Sacramento State +3 tonight with that extra bucket of protection.
