The holidays are over and this means two things in the BetCrushers’ sports betting world: the NFL Playoffs and NCAA hoops conference play are here. Our early Wild Card handicapping is done and early bets are made. Thursday’s NCAAB slate is a big one and have two early wagers made with handicaps in the Road Dog Report for 1/2/2020.
Connecticut, what can I say? Yesterday’s handicap of the UConn/Cincinnati game looked for Josh Carlton to square up Chris Vogt. It’s quite clear that the 7’1″ Vogt is a force to be reckoned with this season as the Bearcats “overmatched and outclassed” the Huskies last night. That’s a swing and a miss on me, but my focus is on today’s pair of plays to get back on track. I have essentially two months to bang out an 80-55 record to reach last year’s mark.
(621) Georgia State @ Appalachian State
A pair of unbeaten in Sun Belt play face off in Boone, NC as 9-4 Georgia State meets 8-5 Appalachian State tonight in the first game on the Road Dog Report for 1/2/2020. The visiting Panthers lost their first three road games of the year before winning three straight, although they took a nine-point loss at SMU in their last road game. The Mountaineers finally return home after a month of away games. App State’s 4-0 home record this season will certainly be put to the test.
Georgia State lacks a dominant big man. They’ve been using a “committee” of three guys to fill this role. Josh Linder and Jalen Thomas are joined by freshman Joe Jones, who has been getting starts and more minutes in this lineup. It’s all about their four upperclassmen guards when it comes to putting in work. These guys are shooting 39.7% from downtown and have held their opponents to 25.4%. The Panthers generate about 14 turnovers per game while playing good ball control. Fouls are their weak spot, at the tune of about 21 per game resulting in 25 free throws per game.
The last time I was involved with Appalachian State, they covered the +5 on 12/19/2019 at South Alabama with an 81-71 win. That started a three-game road cover streak if you grade their last game at +12.5 (+12 was a push). My prior handicap for the Mountaineers recognized their strong inside-outside duo of Justin Forrest and Isaac Johnson. The Panthers’ lack of size could give Johnson an advantage tonight, although they are a good rebounding team. Appalachian State isn’t necessarily the best team to take advantage of GSU’s tendency to foul; the Mountaineers are only 63.1% from the line this season.
On the Money
GSU is a superb 8-2-1 ATS this season, with an unblemished 6-0-1 mark away from home. App State counters with a 7-4-1 ATS mark and 1-2 ATS at home. The Panthers’ closest comparable spot as a Road Dog was at Cal Baptist on 11/23, where they closed as 2-point dogs and got the nine-point win. The market has adapted to Georgia State’s proficiency against the market, as now they are getting a similar number against a better team in Appalachian State. Regardless of the markets catching up to the Panther’s ATS success, I will take the +3 with the better team in GSU.
(629) North Texas @ Western Kentucky
The 6-7 North Texas Mean Green and 7-5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers open Conference USA play tonight in Bowling Green. The Mean Green have been sloppy at times, contributing to their 1-5 away record. WKU has been very good at home, putting up a 4-0 record before falling to Belmont in their last game.
North Texas is led by a pair of young guards, Javion Hamlet and sharpshooter Umoja Gibson. Without 6’11” standout center Charles Bassey, the Hilltoppers lose their dominance in the middle. The effects of this loss were most evident in their last game against Belmont, which they lost by 17 as 2-point favorites. The Mean Green’s experienced front court of Zachary Simmons and Deng Geu should thrive without Bassey on the floor.
The ‘Toppers have been forced to rely on a smaller lineup centered around Taveion Hollingsworth, Carson Williams, and Cameron Justice. These guys rallied in WKU’s first game after the Bassey injury with a strong win at Rhode Island. However, their last game against Belmont may be a better barometer of this team without him. They miss his key contributions with high-percentage shots that helped generate a 47.8% field goal rate. The Mean Green counter with great shooting (45.7% FG, 37.9% 3PT) and a solid defense that has yielded only 39.8% shooting from their opponents.
On the Money
North Texas has posted a very good 8-3 record ATS, including 4-2 ATS away from home. Western Kentucky has struggled a bit against the number, going 4-7 ATS and 2-2 at home. The Mean Green thrives on the road when getting points, including covers at Dayton, Utah State, and Texas-Arlington. They caught +5.5 at UTA on 12/2 and got the 77-66 outright win against a team that I have rated similarly to WKU. I don’t want to overstate the impacts of the Bassey injury, but the Hilltoppers’ last loss against Belmont while laying 2 points shares a lot of similarities with tonight’s showdown with the Mean Green.
That’s the Road Dog Report for 1/2/2020! Stay in the loop with us by following our Twitter account or subscribing for email alerts:
