Goldilocks would have loved the 2019 AL East: two teams pushed their way to the top, two sunk to the bottom, and one settled in the middle. But she’s the only one who’d call Boston “just right” last year, as they failed to repeat their 2019 glory. Baltimore and Toronto couldn’t get out of the basement but a sneaky Rays team found the stairs and climbed them to the Wild Card. Despite constant injury setbacks, the Yankees consistently dominated on their way to a triple digit-win season, easily making them the team to beat in the 2020 AL East.
2019 Division Winner: New York Yankees
2019 AL East Standings
- New York Yankees (103-59)
- Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)
- Boston Red Sox (84-78)
- Toronto Blue Jays (67-95)
- Baltimore Orioles (54-108)
New York Yankees 2020 Win Total: Open 101.5, Now 102.5
2019 Win Total: Over 97 (103-59)
New York entered the 2019 season with purpose after watching their arch-rivals, the Red Sox, win the World Series convincingly. They backed up their drive with strategic roster upgrades. Management swapped a disappointing Sonny Gray for ex-Mariner James Paxton. Adam Ottavino bolstered a bullpen already stacked with Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman’s shutdown arms. The Yanks (thought they) were loaded for bear with sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. However, a black cloud grew over the Bronx quickly. Eight players (Judge and Stanton, plus Hicks, Betances, Gregorius, Severino, Ellsbury, and Andujar) hit the IL before April’s end. Many thought the juggernaut might derail as the IL grew, but this resilient club would have nothing of it. Analytics provided important pieces of the puzzle.
The Yankees admittedly fell behind the curve when it came to the implementation of analytics. Now they rank among the leaders in forward thinking and credit their analysts for pushing to acquire Chad Green, Brandon McCarthy and Luke Voit, among many other players.
Ken Davidoff, The Secret Formula Behind Yankees’ Unrelenting Winning Culture
The transformation began with GM Brian Cashman using his expanded decision-making powers to recast the team’s culture. Cashman’s sweeping changes included new manager Aaron Boone and a greater emphasis on analytics. Supported by these fundamental changes, Mike Tauchman, Luke Voit, and Gio Urshela came out of nowhere with a collective 7 WAR, while new acquisition DJ LeMahieu had the best season of his eight-year MLB career. New York’s rotation was good enough with James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka receiving consistent run support. The depth that management built in this last offseason continues to be highly relevant and fortuitous, as the Yankees just lost Luis Severino for the entire 2020 season.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 98-64
This winter’s signing of top free-agent righty Gerrit Cole is an obvious warning shot. The Yankees want another crack at a World Championship and acquiring the best pitcher in the American League from the Astros – the team that knocked them out of the 2019 ALCS – is one hell of a way to do it. Cole and Tanaka headline a rotation rounded out by veteran JA Happ and the promising arms of Jonathan Loaisiga and Jordan Montgomery. Domingo German returns from suspension this summer, providing even more depth.
So why isn’t my projection for the Yankees higher? I expect a minor drop off in offensive production and bullpen effectiveness. Don’t get me wrong. I rate the Chapman-Britton-Ottavino-Kahnle-Green relief unit as the best in the MLB. But I’m knocking my expectations for them down by a game or two, and it’s everything to do with statistical regression to the mean.
The depth of the Bronx Bombers’ position players make for a crowded house. And that’s not a bad thing, especially after 2019’s injury barrage. While Gleyber Torres is not a household name outside the New York metro area, the consensus projects a steady progression for him for years to come. What’s scary is this kid is coming off of a 38-HR, .871 OPS season and is poised to do it all over again this year.
The price is high with the Yankees in 2020. Fuggedaboutit if you want to back them as the AL East winner, unless laying in excess of -450 is acceptable to you (hint: it shouldn’t be). Think they cruise through the playoffs to the World Series? The books make the AL Pennant a two-horse race between New York and Houston, with the Yankees priced at +140 and +200 in two of my accounts. They just proved that surpassing a steep win total around 102 is achievable, even with repeated injuries to big producers. There’s no meat on this bone. I won’t bet the over on a total this massive and definitely can’t fade a team with this much World Series potential.
Tampa Bay Rays 2020 Win Total: Open 89, Now 90.5
2019 Win Total: Over 84.5 (96-66)
Tampa Bay quietly fought their way to a 96-win playoff season, and did it all with just the 26th-highest Opening Day payroll. Rays GM Erik Neander justifiably earned the 2019 Executive of the Year award for his role in putting together a team with the second-highest number of wins in franchise history. The Astros ended Tampa Bay’s ALDS experience after they made the playoffs as a wild card.
The Rays made their mark with stellar pitching and great defense. Their 656 runs against was the third best in the majors. Tampa Bay’s bullpen graded out as one of the most effective relief units in the MLB. Their 46 saves were in the top third and 3.94 FIP was just 0.02 runs behind league-leader Minnesota. They rarely gave up late leads.
Decisive ace Charlie Morton, along with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, could have formed a top notch trio, but the dreaded injury bug had other plans. Snell missed games with elbow problems, and the 6’8″ Glasnow made just twelve starts. Glasnow was the prized acquisition of 2018’s “colossally lopsided” Chris Archer trade with Pittsburgh, though teammate outfielder Austin Meadows yielded the biggest season of the two with 33 home runs last year. Neander deserves a lot of credit for clearly winning the Archer trade, as well as the shrewd swap of Jake Bauers with Cleveland for third baseman Yandy Diaz. These moves for the future managed to pay instant dividends.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 85-77
2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell should return to peak form this season as one third of a strong trio of starting pitchers, barring injury, of course. Any news about Snell’s left elbow gives Rays Nation cause for concern. Their position as the second-best rotation in the American League hinges on Snell, Morton, and Glasnow collectively making 80+ starts. Tampa Bay has decent depth with Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarborough, and Brendan McKay. The 24-year old McKay looks to be the odd man out of the Opening Day rotation, but you better believe he’ll be called up before long.
The Rays’ offense lost some zing when Pham went to San Diego, but this lineup is solid and deep. Outfielders Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier, and Hunter Renfroe are a 6 WAR group, though Kiermaier adds more value in the field than at the plate. That’s the Rays’ game: do your job, contribute to the team, and get the win. Renfroe came over from the Padres in the Pham trade, then a couple months later they swapped reliever Emilio Pagan for outfielder Manuel Margot. Margot will likely platoon against lefties but also adds defensive value. Besides two-way second baseman Brandon Lowe, the infield is comprised of guys who contribute primarily either offensively or defensively. It’s a well-constructed roster on a shoestring budget.
WAGER: Tampa Bay UNDER 91.5 -112 (@SugarHouse 3/3/20)
Pagan’s late trade epitomizes the complexity of MLB deals, in that prospects can have as much value as current producers. It also shows the depth of Tampa bullpen. As long as Erik Neander is making the moves, I have a certain level of faith. That said, I expect this team to shed a couple wins each from their offense, rotation, and bullpen. I’ll make another unpopular statement: the 2019 Rays outplayed their talent level by a few games. Put it all together and you’ve got an 84-86 win team battling for a Wild Card spot. There’s plenty of cushion to play the Rays win total under, especially after finding a rogue 91.5.
Boston Red Sox 2020 Win Total: Open 89, Now 84.5
2019 Win Total: Under 93.5 (84-78)
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…
Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
New England celebrated another major sports championship after the 2018 Red Sox took down the Dodgers in the World Series. In a wicked twist of fate, the league dealt the Sox a bad hand with an 11-game West Coast swing to kick off the season, resulting in a 3-8 record before they ever got to play at Fenway Park. This brutal lead-off road trip was a huge change from the 108-win season they just finished. Despite rallying to an 84-78 record in 2019, the BoSox dug a big hole early and never materialized as a threat to repeat as World Champs.
The rotation headlined by Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, and Rick Porcello was arguably the biggest part of the slow start. Unfortunately, Price battled injuries throughout the year and only Sale truly pulled out of the pitching doldrums. These troubles made the Orioles’ Andrew Cashner – who was having an impressive first half – look like an oasis in the desert. As every dejected Sox fan expected, Cashner fell off once he arrived at Fenway.
The 2019 version of the Boston offense was a mixed bag. Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts were beasts, joining Mookie Betts as 6-ish WAR players. J.D. Martinez clubbed 35 homers and drove in 105 runs, but both he and Betts had down years when compared to 2018. Boston’s trajectory was clearly downward after their October 2018 apex.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 80-82
The dark cloud hanging over the Red Sox after missing the postseason stuck around through the offseason. Both Mookie Betts and David Price were dealt to the already-rich Dodgers, who they beat in the World Series just a year earlier. They didn’t lose 2018 Betts or 2014 Price but none of the position players on the 2020 Opening Day roster look ready to take a significant step forward, either. Martinez could surpass 40 homers with Bogaerts hitting at least 20 bombs and hit around .300, helping to keep this a top-third offense in the American League.
Closer Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, and Josh Taylor lead a bullpen that should fall back to being an average unit. Their middle relievers are middle of the road but their three anchors form a solid trio. Unfortunately, new manager Ron Roenicke is hamstrung by the latest development with ace Chris Sale. (“One of MLB’s greatest cheaters“, Alex Cora was ousted as manager in January.) Sale was already expected to miss the start of the 2020 season with pneumonia. Now the soreness he’s experienced in his throwing elbow since last August may have progressed in seriousness.
Sale’s injury leaves the pitching to 3+ WAR Eduardo Rodriguez and the sub-2 WAR arms of Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez. They’ll be holding on tight when bottom of the rotation guys like Hector Velazquez and Ryan Weber take the bump. Unfortunately, frequent calls for extended duty will stress the Sox’ iffy middle relievers. A .500 season is a reasonable scenario given this strained rotation and a bullpen set to regress to the average. I have to respect this solid lineup with a rack of powerful good hitters so I’ll be staying away from a heavily-juiced under on their win total.
Toronto Blue Jays 2020 Win Total: Open 77, Now 75
2019 Win Total: Under 74 (67-95)
Guerrero, Biggio, and Bichette. 2019 was the year of former Big Leaguers’ sons taking the field for the Jays. The hyped-up arrival of the MLB’s most anticipated prospect, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., was was arguably a bust. Cavan Biggio showed promise with some pop and a good eye, but Bo Bichette was the son that took Canada by storm with a .930 OPS and .311/.358/.571 slash line. The progression of young talent progress this season will be key as the Jays look to be a playoff contender in 2021.
An optimist could look at this Toronto club and see a lot of upside in their 67 wins last season. Those three big prospects made a nice distraction from an anemic offense and a highly unstable pitching corps. When Edwin Jackson is making starts for you at this point in his career, consider it an ominous sign. Not to bag on a guy who has persisted this long in the MLB, but he did post a 7.65 FIP last year. The Blue Jays were clearly a team in transition during the summer of 2019. Toronto moved on from longtime Jay Marcus Stroman by trading him to the Mets in the midst of another great season from the righty.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 79-83
How can this young team make strides in the competitive AL East? Start by signing solid veteran arms to stabilize the rotation. Hyun-Jin Ryu comes over from the Dodgers, joining new acquisitions Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson. Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thornton round out a group of starters that should improve from last year. Just as importantly, these moves create a legitimate rotation that can operate with more regularity. Unfortunately, the bullpen will still be below-average despite having a revitalized Ken Giles anchor the relief unit. Early indications are that Japanese pitcher Shun Yamaguchi will begin the season in the pen, providing a much-needed arm.
Despite high expectations, Toronto fans and backers will need to be patient with this young lineup. Only first baseman Travis Shaw and center fielder Randal Grichuk have more than two years of major league service among position players. You can’t realistically expect Bo Bichette to repeat his breakout debut over the course of a full season, but Vlad could pick up some of that slack. And what about DH Teoscar Hernandez’ and his big 2019 second half? These may not all deliver, but together should prove a net positive in the form of incremental improvement.
WAGER: Toronto OVER 74.5 -118 (@Hollywood Casino 2/20/20)
With a 79-win projection, I’m clearly in the “glass half full” camp with the Blue Jays. At the same time, I recognize that an offense loaded with young talent will have growing pains. Toronto’s rotation will be better for a number of reasons, most notably their ability to effectively pitch a big-league game. The margin between the 74.5 and my median case estimate for the 2020 Blue Jays isn’t huge but this team has the ability to push .500. Considering their 2019 Pythag result was 71 wins, this season’s baseline is better than what conventional wisdom tells you. I’m a buyer of the Jays’ strong upside in a division where the Rays and Sox should give a few games back this year.
Baltimore Orioles 2020 Win Total: Open 56.5, Now 56.5
2019 Win Total: Under 59 (54-108)
We move from a Blue Jays team on an upward trajectory to Baltimore, where the road to .500 is long and uphill both ways. The 2019 season was for the birds, as their 54 wins marked the second-worst record in the MLB. Believe it or not, that dismal number was actually a seven game improvement over their 2018 total. So maybe this team is on the right track after hitting rock bottom two years ago. And if anybody is ready to turn the page, it is (former) slugger Chris Davis who went 54 at bats across the 2018 & 2019 seasons between hits.
Davis’ epic struggles led to time on the bench, which gave guys like Trey Mancini and Renato Nunez valuable playing time. Mancini responded with a 35-homer, 97-RBI season; Nunez was powerful as well with 31 bombs and 90 RBI. Mancini’s .291/.364/.535 hitting made his power output that much more impressive. Otherwise, this Baltimore club did not offer much at the plate or in the field. In fact, they had the second-worst defense behind Pittsburgh. It wasn’t much better on the mound either. The O’s gave up 981 runs and were outscored by 252 (that’s an average of 1.55 runs per game).
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 62-100
The bright side for Baltimore is a farm system ranking in the top half of the league. This is good news after years of coping with a depleted pipeline. Unless Davis somehow turns back the clock to 2013, expect him to be jettisoned if AAA masher Ryan Mountcastle is ready for promotion. Mountcastle won’t move the needle in 2020 but his 25-homer, .312/.344/.527 2019 season at Norfolk bodes well for the future. If anything, the lack of talent gives outfielders Anthony Santander and Austin Hays and third baseman Rio Ruiz more playing time to prove their MLB value.
Goal #1 for this Orioles pitching staff is reducing their runs against to somewhere below 900. That’s a big reduction from last year’s 981 but no team can realistically improve when leaking oil that badly. Dylan Bundy is gone, as is Andrew Cashner. It’s Rookie of the Year runner-up John Means’ staff now and there’s a lot of questions for the 2 through 5 spots. Think 2019 Toronto Blue Jays if you want a possible comparison. Michael Givens, Richard Bleier, and Hunter Harvey will lead a bullpen that should be noticeably better than last year’s but still below average. The Orioles could take a small step in the right direction this year as the young talent gets a shot. Regardless, I will be on the sidelines with their season win total.
2020 AL East Projected Standings
- New York Yankees (98-64)
- Tampa Bay Rays (85-77)
- Boston Red Sox (80-82)
- Toronto Blue Jays (79-83)
- Baltimore Orioles (62-100)
On the Homestretch
That’s four division previews in the books, with the NL East and AL West on deck next week. If you missed the NL West, AL Central, or NL Central articles be sure to click the links and get up to speed because Opening Day is three weeks away. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe to email notifications for all of our new content. The MLB page at BetCrushers.com is home to all our daily plays and futures bets, so be sure to bookmark it and check in throughout the season!
