The BetCrushers NCAAB Road Dog Report for 12/10/2019 returns after a Monday off from the college hardwood. We were glued to the NFL action as our consensus plays delivered a much-needed 4-0 sweep. Although today’s is a short betting card, we found a couple matchups worth diving deep into and fired on one juicy road dog for tonight.
(609) Tennessee St. @ Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5
Kudos if you if you grabbed +7 at the opener, as I was late to the party early Tuesday morning. Our core ratings have +5 as the minimum number of points to take with a margin of safety. It’s rarely a good feeling to miss a decent move like this, but the numbers show that it’s not just a matter of chasing steam on these evenly-matched squads.
TSU is a team undergoing a transformation as six players (including their leading scorer) left last season. Second-year coach Penny Collins reloaded the roster with several transfer students including role-player Ben Kone. The Tigers’ lineup is anchored by a pair of freshman and a trio of seniors, two of which are transfers. Partly aided by a below-average strength-of-schedule, Collins has done a good job of getting a lot of new faces to gel early in the 2019-20 season. His team appears to be markedly better than last year’s version and has already achieved a respectable 6-3 record.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Little Rock comes into tonight’s game with a 5-5 record and will be without junior forward Kris Bankston. Despite coming off the bench, he’s been a go-to guy that has given the Trojans nearly 18 minutes per game. The home team has good size, including 6′-10″ freshman forward Ruot Monyyong who is contributing just over 10 PPG and 8.5 RPG in his young collegiate career. An outstanding threat for Arkansas-Little Rock is sophomore guard Markquis Nowell, posting 19.3 PPG and 4.6 APG from the point.
The Trojans’ size has gained them an advantage in second chance points, namely offensive rebounds so far this season. Their length may pose a tough matchup in the paint and on the boards for TSU, who has shot quite well from the floor (49.2 FG%). In fact, the Tigers’ 59.0% 2-point shooting is 10th best in Division I this year. Both teams have been prone to turn the ball over, which could make this game a tense watch for fans and bettors alike.
On the Money
Both teams have better ATS records than straight up records, which is impressive considering neither is below .500 this year. Little Rock is 2-1 ATS at the Jack Stephens Center and is 2-1 as a favorite. Tennessee State is clearly exceeding expectations with a 7-2 ATS mark, including 5-0 as a dog and 5-0 away from home (both neutral site and true road games). TSU’s non-covers came when they could not get over the -21 vs. Chicago State and -37.5 vs. Fisk. Considering all of the above, give me the +5.5 with the Tennessee State Tigers in Little Rock tonight!
