Previous Week Plays – 2-3
Season Record – 18-17-1
WEEK 9 RECAP:
The BetCrushers posted another profitable weekend, however NFL week 9 was a bit of a bust as we finished with an unimpressive 2-3 with our posted plays. It’s fun to look back when you have winning weekends, yet more important to look back to learn from any mistakes in hopes of not repeating them in upcoming wagers. Occasionally when you’re gambling on a sport like the NFL, you may lose simply due to bad luck or a tough beat. Unfortunately for us, our misses in week 9 were more due to our poor choices that we have to admit and take ownership in.
First we’ll start with the positives and our two victories. Our breakdown of Tennessee and Carolina played out just as we had written it up as Christian McCaffrey continues his assault on opposing defenses in pursuit of a deserved shot at league MVP. Our second victory was the over in the draft pick game between the Dolphins and Jets. As we had mentioned taking an over with two really incompetent teams can be a little scary, however as we suspected the defenses were even less competent than the offenses. If these teams were better that over might have skyrocketed right past the total, yet a win is a win and we’ll take it.
Our first loss involved a teaser with Jags and Lions each getting a TD and a two point conversion which seemed more than adequate. The Lions did their part, however the teaser was busted before that game kicked off due to the Jaguars laying an absolute egg in London against the rival Texans. It’s very perplexing how this Jacksonville offense that had been playing well could be so powerless against a banged up Houston defense in a game that was essentially a Jags home match. While that teaser disappointed, no regrets as we played the correct numbers and it simply didn’t work out.
Our other two losses however could have and should have been avoided if we had some discipline to simply lay off of the games. Minnesota absolutely should have beaten Kansas City without Matt Moore but taking Kirk Cousins on the road against a team that’s pretty stacked, with the exception of quarterback turned out to burn us. The Vikings were in position to cover at the end of the game, but ultimately Cousins couldn’t move the ball and the Minnesota defense which struggled a bit couldn’t hold down Tyreek Hill and the Chief offense.
Our biggest miss of the weekend was taking the Packers in LA against the previously struggling Chargers. We called it a square bet going into the game so we certainly only have ourselves to blame, but we didn’t expect Green Bay to get absolutely dominated. They were honestly never in that game and that should calm some of the Aaron Rodgers for president cheers as he couldn’t move the ball at all through the air. There are times when it’s ok to go against the “sharp” money, however this apparently wasn’t one of those times. Week 10 is a new day and we’re sharpening our own tools to have a generously profitable card.
WEEK 10 PLAYS:
With some of the more competitive teams in the league on a bye this weekend you’ve really got to do your homework to try to evaluate where the advantages are in each game. History also tells us that teams haven’t quite saddled in for the stretch run so there is also the fear of some letdown games as early November is similar to the dog days of summer baseball when teams can lose a little focus. A bit of a different look this week as we have one team featured in two different bets, one against the spread and one in a teaser. In total we have three plays against the spread, one total, and two teaser bets on the card.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (3-5-1) ATS(6-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6) ATS(2-6)
Sunday November 10th
1:00pm
FOX
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-105)
Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
Only five combined wins between the Cardinals and Buccaneers in a matchup that showcases a quarterback on the rise, and perhaps one that is on the decline. Both teams have been competitive, yet neither have been able to close out games and come away with wins consistently. Points could be plentiful in this contest so all of you daily fantasy football players don’t hesitate to load up in this game.
Although the 3-5-1 mark of the Cardinals may not get their fanbase super hyped, the flashes and the fight this team has shown each week has to be encouraging. David Johnson looks to return in the backfield to work with new addition Kenyan Drake in a combination running/receiving tandem. Drake was impressive in his debut against the 49ers and having his versatility with Johnson allows the Cardinals to really open up their playbook and run a lot of different formations and patterns. Tampa Bay has been strong all season against the run so look for Johnson and Drake to be featured more in the passing game than just running between the tackles. Kyler Murray will of course be the guy throwing the passes and he could give the Bucs’ some fits with his athleticism. You certainly can’t put Murray in the same breath as Russell Wilson yet, however his style is very similar to what the Seahawks signal caller brings to the table. Wilson dissected Tampa repeatedly both in and out of the pocket and Murray should be able to find some similar success. Christian Kirk who has been quiet due to being out of the lineup with injuries could be in line for a really nice game as TB has struggled to defend the slot position. The interior of Tampa’s defensive line has played well and that may force Murray to use his legs a little more than he has been throughout the season. In case you weren’t sure, that is actually a really good thing for the Arizona Cardinals assuming he can avoid taking some big hits.
Even when Jameis Winston is doing some good things on the football field, which he does more than people give him credit for, he just can’t seem to catch a break. Despite having several chances to beat Seattle last week, Winston had some unfortunate mistakes including an unforced error of dropping the football leading to a costly turnover. He should find some opportunities for big plays with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in this game, although Patrick Peterson should be able to at least slow Evans down on the outside. Ronald Jones took over the starting running back spot and he provides a bit more of a spark and opportunity for big plays in the running game. The ground game is generally not a big factor for TB and it likely won’t be here either although anything Jones can give them is helpful. The biggest and most obvious area of concern is if the Bucs’ can keep veterans Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs from wreaking havoc off of the edges. It’s impossible to see the future of an NFL football game, but it sure seems like visions of strip sack fumbles could be a serious reality in this game.
KEY STATS – The Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games as a
favorite.
– The Bucs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after a
road loss
A good portion of NFL bettors are hesitant to wager on anything involving the Buccaneers due to the inconsistency of Jameis Winston. He can throw 5 touchdowns or turn it over 5 times, or both, leading to a roller coaster of covering and not covering during a game. That’s a legitimate concern, however we really like Arizona getting the points in this spot. Tampa played an exhausting game a week ago and suffered a loss that essentially ended their season. With a lackluster homefield advantage, how much are they really going to get up and be ready to play flying back across the country? If you check their recent trends they are one of the worst home teams against the spread in the league. This game should be a close one and it’s possible that Arizona could actually win outright so we’ll take the 4.5 points and hope we get more bad Jameis than good Jamies.
BetCrushers Take: Arizona Cardinals +4.5
Arizona Cardinals 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) ATS(5-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5) ATS(3-5-1)
Sunday November 10th
1:00pm
CBS
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
The NFL world welcomes back the electric Patrick Mahomes from his dislocated kneecap and the Chiefs look to continue their winning ways against the tough Titans in Nashville. Will Mahomes be able to pick up with he left off, or will the suddenly impressive Ryan Tannehill keep the Titans in the AFC playoff race?
This Kansas City offense really is something to behold and you have to give the Chiefs organization a lot of credit for assembling the speed and talent to overwhelm opponents. There was some overheard chatter at the sports bar last week that the guys bellied up to the bar could put up 20+ points quarterbacking that Chief offense, and the crazy part is that’s only mildly ridiculous. All KC will be doing this week is adding the league’s most talented quarterback back into the fold who will no doubt be eager to get back to work. The Titans have played well defensively this season as you’d expect, however they haven’t seen a multi-faceted attack like they’re going to be seeing on Sunday. Andy Reid will undoubtedly find some advantages, and look for one of the Kansas City playmakers to have a big game. Which playmaker will that be? We have absolutely no idea, but someone is going to have a big day on this offense every week.
Ryan Tannehill deserves a lot of respect this season as he came over unceremoniously, held a clipboard as a backup, and then was inserted into the lineup midstream. He has played very nicely and although he may never be what his counterpart in this game is at the quarterback position, he’s stating the case that he can be a winning guy in this league. You’d think Tannehill would find success this Sunday against the Chiefs defense, however while people weren’t paying attention, this maligned group has actually been playing decent football. Getting Chris Jones back on the defensive line was a big boost for certain, and as the many new faces on this unit have started to get more comfortable playing together, this defense is no longer a punchline. Tennessee will be looking to run Derrick Henry as much as possible to move the sticks and keep that KC offense off of the field. Of course Steve Spagnuolo is well aware of this so as is the case with most defensive coordinators planning against the Titans he will make stopping Henry priority number one. That means that Tannehill is going to have to make some plays in the passing game to keep the chains moving with his tight ends, and wide receivers. A key matchup will be whether or not Taylor Lewan is able to contain Frank Clark when the Titans have to throw as Tannehill has played very well when he’s had a clean pocket to throw.
The casinos slaughtered the public in week number nine as the road favorites got beaten and the amateur bettors in particular were hit hard. It’s been an up and down year for the sportsbooks so the public should rebound a bit this week and the Chiefs should be one of the teams to help that cause. Normally laying six points on the road in an NFL game is a recipe for absolute disaster, particularly against a team that generally plays teams tough and close. We’re going to go square bet here as this will really be the first time since week one that Kansas City will have most of it’s talented lineup in tact. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will make a statement and should be able to win by at least a touchdown. Keep an eye on the over here as well.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs -6
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Tennessee Titans 22
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (6-2) ATS(5-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-6) ATS(2-6)
Sunday November 10th
1:00pm
CBS
FirstEnergy Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 40 (-110)
If you told people at the beginning of the season that the Bills and Browns were playing in week ten and one team would be 6-2 and the other would be 2-6 they’d probably guess the reverse of where each sits today. Many pundits are skeptical of the Bills based upon the soft schedule they’ve played, while critics are quick to pile on the Browns for their unimpressive performances including last weeks loss to first time starter Brandon Allen and the Denver Broncos.
The Buffalo Bills find themselves with six wins despite having the 23rd overall ranked offense in the NFL in 2019. They’ll look to get things going against a Browns defense that has actually played better in recent weeks as they’ve gotten healthier despite not finding their way into the win column. The Bills turned to rookie Devin Singletary as lead back ahead of Frank Gore last week and he didn’t disappoint showing some of the elusiveness and quickness that made him the team’s third round pick. Both Singletary and Gore should find some space running between the tackles against what has been a soft run defense in Cleveland. The interior of the Bills offensive line should be more physical and if they can get out to an early lead they’ll have a big edge in the second half of the game. The concern on the offensive line for the Bills has to be with their tackles as they’ll have to hold up against Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon and the Browns pass rushers. Josh Allen has played fairly well as he continues to grow in his second season, however he has been prone to fumbles as his pocket awareness and ball security are still lacking. If Allen can take care of the ball the Bills have a good chance to win this game, but if the offense turns it over, the Browns will come away with the win.
Cleveland made it publicly known that they plan to force the ball into the hands of Odell Beckham, Jr. beginning this week which could end up being a really good or a really bad thing. We know that Beckham is a game changer when he can get his hands on the ball so Baker Mayfield will be doing everything he can to make that happen Sunday. The challenge the Browns have with that plan this week is OBJ will likely be matched up with Tre’davious White who Pro Football Focus has graded as the second best cornerback in the league through the halfway point of the season. Cleveland will not to find creative ways to get the ball to Beckham and not completely ignore the other receivers who may have easier matchups. If head coach Freddie Kitchens really wants to do his embattled quarterback a favor and try to come away with a desperation win, his best bet will be to hand the ball off to Nick Chubb early and often. While the Bills defense has played well for the season, the last three weeks they have been absolutely gashed in zone running games allowing nearly 200 yards per game. Chubb has been as good as any RB not named Christian McCaffrey this year and it will be difficult for the Bills to contain him even if they commit extra guys in the box. If they end up having to bring their safeties up it could open the door up for Baker Mayfield to finally hit some of the big plays that he was hitting in 2018.
KEY STATS – The Browns over total is 6-3 in their last 9 home games
We’ll find out just what kind of a mentally tough team the Cleveland Browns are this weekend as they desperately need to play a clean and sound game. At first glance you’d think this would be a grinding type game in the November cold of Cleveland with two young quarterbacks who aren’t playing explosive football. Look a little closer and you’ll see some things including redzone production that should contribute to a few more points than expected. If Cleveland is ever going to make a move this season it has to be in this game and their maligned offense should do enough to get some points on the board. With a total of just 40 points, there doesn’t need to be an offensive explosion, just these teams doing enough to get the ball in the end zone a few times.
BetCrushers Take: Over 40 Total
Cleveland Browns 23, Buffalo Bills 20
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (6-3) ATS(5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-3) ATS(5-3)
Sunday November 10th
8:20pm
NBC
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -3 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Even though Monday Night has the game of the week, the Sunday Night Football crew gets a close runner up when the 6-3 Vikings travel to the 5-3 Cowboys in a game that almost certainly will have some playoff implications down the line. After silencing critics from early in the season, Kirk Cousins regressed a bit last week in a tough loss to the Chiefs while Dak Prescott did just enough with the help of his defense to get a win against the Giants. There will be a lot of Pro Bowlers on the field and this should be a one of the better prime time contests of the entire season.
For a short window it almost seemed like Kirk Cousins had gotten the monkey off of his back of not being able to win big games on the road. A mediocre offensive performance, to be generous, brought some of those chants from the media back into focus for Cousins and you have to wonder what his confidence level will be like going into Sunday. The Vikings offense faces a big challenge on the road as Dallas has been downright dominant in their home stadium playing better on offense and defense. An additional challenge will be facing the Cowboys without Adam Thielen as it looks like his lingering injury will probably force him to miss the game. Without Thielen, the Vikings become a lot easier to defend as teams can focus more on containing Dalvin Cook with only the up and down Stefon Diggs to truly worry about in the passing game. Minnesota’s offensive line was outplayed against the Chiefs last week and if they have that same effort, Dallas will be able to get pressure all over Cousins with Robert Quinn, Demarcus Lawrence and newly acquired Michael Bennett who made an impact in his first game Monday night. Ultimately, what Minnesota does on offense will boil down to what Kirk Cousins is able to do playing under very bright lights in a hostile environment.
Ezekiel Elliott carried the Cowboys on offense for most of the game against the Giants as their passing game stalled for the majority of the game before finally getting going late. That really shouldn’t come as a shock as Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper in particular have been very average when they have played on the road going back to last season. The difference here is they’ll be playing in Jerry’s World, where both have been tearing up the stat sheet and scoring at a high pace. Even with Xavier Rhodes covering Cooper, you can expect him to have his typical big day in a home game. Michael Gallup is another receiver that you will be hearing a lot from and could be a potential home run hitter in this matchup. The Vikings will know doubt be focused on containing Zeke Elliott, however that’s not what’s likely to hurt them in this game. The two keys for the Vikes’ defensively will be trying to win in the trenches against the Cowboys talented and healthier offensive line, and avoiding giving up the big plays over the top. Minnesota has as good of a defensive line as the Cowboys will face this year, but we don’t see them having enough success against the big boys in Dallas.
KEY STATS – The Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog
This game is 100% about the location of where it is being played. You have one team that’s exceptionally good at home, and another that is substantially poorer on the road. Yes it’s true that Kirk Cousins played some good football during October and we’re actually happy for him as he takes more heat than he probably deserves. However, history tells us this is a game where Cousins will absolutely choke, and any doubt of that not happening is out the window with his favorite receiving target sitting on the bench. Look for the Dallas pass rush to get after Cousins and it’s possible there could be multiple big turnovers in this game. We went with the Vikings a week ago and lost, so it’s always a gamble to go against them the following week as things tend to even out, but the history and trends are simply too heavily weighted in the favor of Dallas.
BetCrushers Take: Dallas Cowboys -3
Dallas Cowboys 27, Minnesota Vikings 20
Teaser Bet
Seattle vs. San Francisco and Detroit vs. Chicago
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (7-2) (4-5 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (8-0) (5-3 ATS)
Monday November 11th
8:15pm
ESPN
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -6 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
Detroit Lions (3-4-1) (4-4 ATS) at Chicago Bears (3-5)(2-6 ATS)
Sunday November 10th
4:05pm
FOX
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
If you’ve followed the BetCrushers you probably know that when we see particular point spreads we’re almost always going to tease them no matter who the logo on the jersey represents. Here is another one of those instances as we’re looking at the Lions/Bears game and Seahawks/49ers contest on Monday night.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: DETROIT +8.5 and SAN FRANCISCO pick
The Detroit Lions lost a heartbreaker last week as they ran out of time against a fiesty Oakland squad despite another good performance from their offense. They’ll need another big game from Matthew Stafford in the Chicago cold against a Bears defense that has looked like a shell of itself from a year ago, mostly due to their inept offense. While the Lions have been impressive chucking the ball around the field to their skill position weapons, they’re going to need to find a running game if they want to come out with a road victory against Chicago. The Bears have been vulnerable against the run more so than the pass so simply throwing the ball down the field isn’t going to be a winning formula for beating them. Can the Lions get enough production out of third and fourth string guys to put Stafford and the offense in manageable situations against the chains? One thing that should help is the fact that the Lions offensive line has played much better than expected this season. They’ll need to take away Khalil Mack and his ability to single-handedly wreck a game.
There are a bunch of adjectives that could be used to describe the Chicago Bears offense in 2019 and none of them would be pleasant or complimentary. Their ineptness reached new heights a week ago against Philadelphia as they weren’t able to do anything running or passing for most of the game. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was so frustrated and beleaguered that he asked the TVs in the Bears facilities to be shut off so they wouldn’t have to hear the criticism of just how poorly they’ve played. Fortunately for Trubisky and team a date against the Lions defense at home could be exactly what they need to build some confidence and momentum. The Lions have been unable to stop anyone and have struggled in both defending the run and the pass. As we saw a couple of weeks ago, the Bears can get David Montgomery going against inferior competition, which the Lions run defense clearly is. With Montgomery running, it should open things up for Trubisky to make some plays in the passing game, something he has been mostly unable to do up to this point in the season. One thing is for certain for the Bears, if they can’t get any offense going in this matchup, they might as well start looking ahead to the future.
Monday Night Football has the game of the week as the 6-2 Seattle Seahawks and red hot Russell Wilson visit the undefeated and equally scorching San Francisco 49ers. Will Seattle be able to continue it’s stellar play on offense against a very good 49er defense at home? If there’s any quarterback that has the ability to break that defense it’s certainly Russell Wilson with the way he’s playing. His offensive line has been playing well and Chris Carson has been better than Pete Carroll could have hoped for giving them much needed balance and making them really tough to defend. Tyler Lockett who was viewed as a bit of a “gimmicky” receiver is putting up big plays and big numbers every week as he and Wilson are completely on the same page. We’d suspect that the Seahawks will move Lockett around as they usually do to avoid locking horns with Richard Sherman all game. Even though Lockett will be a marked man, it’ll be critical for him to make some plays for Seattle to win the game. Perhaps the biggest question of this game will be how will the dominating defensive line of San Francisco look to contain Russell Wilson? As good as they have been thus far in the season, they haven’t faced a quarterback like Wilson, who’s playing the best football of his career.
This teaser is a little scary, particularly going against Russell Wilson in a prime time divisional matchup. You could certainly make the case to tease the Seahawks to a +12 mark as Wilson rarely gets blown out in a game. San Francisco has proven however that they can absolutely demolish people when they’re on and the Seahawks defense has not played well generally speaking. Even though the Hawks’ could certainly pull the upset and win, that seems slightly less likely than the 49ers winning by two scores. This has the feel of a one score San Francisco victory in the Bay. In the other matchup, it’s pretty simple. We don’t trust the Bears to beat any team in this league by more than 8 points right now with the way their offense is playing. They’ll most likely win this game at home as the Lions defense will give Trubisky a breather game, but Stafford should be able to keep it competitive and within one score. We teased the Lions to +8.5 a week ago as well and they lost by one touchdown. Expect a similar result this weekend. We’ll be the first to admit this teaser is a little shakier than some of the others we’ve played this year, but we have to stick to our formula and numbers as that’s guaranteed to provide good results over the long haul.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Detroit +8.5 and San Francisco pick
Bears 26, Lions 23 and 49ers 29, Seahawks 27
Teaser Bet
Kansas City vs. Tennessee and Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
vs.
and 
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) ATS(5-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5) ATS(3-5-1)
Sunday November 10th
1:00pm
CBS
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Kansas City Chiefs -6 (-110)
Over/Under 48 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) (3-5 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-8)(3-5 ATS)
Sunday November 10th
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Baltimore Ravens -10 (-110)
Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
A little something outside of the box for us with our second teaser as we have a couple of things that are unconventional. First, we’re teasing a team we actually picked to cover outright ATS in the Kansas City Chiefs in their game against the Tennessee Titans. Second, we’re teasing the Baltimore Ravens despite not getting through the key number of three on the spread. It’s a little unorthodox, but with the rest of our plays for the week being fairly by the book, this seemed like a unique opportunity to mix things up in search of another win.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: BALTIMORE -4 and KANSAS CITY pick
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off perhaps the most impressive win of the season as they thoroughly outmatched the previously undefeated New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. They’ll be on the opposite end of the spectrum as they turn their attention to the lowly and winless Cincinnati Bengals who will be staring rookie quarterback Ryan Finley under center. We can save everyone some time with this breakdown, the Ravens are a much better football team basically everywhere on the field, including wide receiver as A.J. Green suffered a setback in return from his injury and won’t be able to make his debut on Sunday. The Bengals defense has played hard for the most part, they’re just generally out-manned particularly at the linebacker position which is not good against Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. The Ravens should be able to run the ball effectively and should build up an early lead. If they’re able to do so, look for a lot of handing the ball off in the second half as they’ll be content to get a W and get back home without any injuries or mishaps.
The Bengal faithful have been screaming for Andy Dalton’s head for weeks and they’ll finally get their wish as they look to see what Finley can do for them. As mentioned he’ll have to do it with Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate being matched up against Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith in the secondary which is not exactly easing him into game action. Careful what you wish for Bengals fans, Ryan Finley could be in for a long day and or season, that is if he can finish the game. As the league knows, the Bengals offensive line is horrible and even though the Ravens haven’t been great with their front seven, they have enough speed and power to cause some havoc for the young rookie. For the Bengals to have any chance in this game they’ll need to get running back Joe Mixon going, something they haven’t been able to do much due mostly to the previously referenced offensive line.
The second leg of the teaser goes back to the Chiefs and Titans game where we’ll tease the Chiefs down to a pick. We absolutely think they’re going to cover outright, but it’s certainly not a given as there is no such thing as a lock in sports betting. If they can’t cover, it is extremely difficult to envision them not at least winning the game as they are a far superior team playing in a stadium that doesn’t give the Titans a huge advantage.
The Ravens are in a classic “let down” game coming off their emotional home win and having to travel to Cincinnati. How can they possibly get hyped up to play a team that hasn’t won a game starting a rookie quarterback? As crazy as it sounds the Bengals could very well cover this game as 10+ points is generous in the world of the NFL. Even though we aren’t under the key three number, giving Baltimore those extra six points should be enough to take care of them, if they have any interest in playing at all Sunday.
