Previous Week Plays – 4-1
Season Record – 16-14-1
WEEK 8 RECAP:
At the roughly halfway point of the NFL regular season things are setting up pretty nicely for us as a solid 4-1 week 8 keeps us in the positive for the season, even if not by a lot. What we’re feeling good about is the fact that we’ve suffered more tough breaks than we’ve had fortunate bounces so far this year and those eventually tend to even out a bit with time. Other than a couple of tough misses, we’ve been pretty darn close with our analysis of our games and wagers and last week was a good example of that. If you read our take on the Chargers and Bears game, it played out about as close as it could to how we had it scripted and we came away with an ATS cover. Our two teasers came together nicely as we hit both and in textbook fashion, three of the four teaser legs needed the extra 6 points to hit as those teams didn’t cover straight up. Our late add of the Bengals team total under was really never even threatened at all in London making for a mostly stress-free under, which is very rarely the case. Our only miss was taking the Jets with a solid touchdown spread on the road against the Jaguars who outplayed them for most of the game. The Jets were within a touchdown in the fourth quarter so a cover or at least push were within reach, but overall the Jags’ were just too much for a team that is really underachieving. No one expected the Jets to be competing for the Super Bowl, but 1-6 and trading away talent halfway through the season was probably not what the organization had in mind.
WEEK 9 PLAYS:
There are a lot of “leans” in week 9 as we’ve broken down the games, yet not a lot to feel great about digging in. The spreads/totals seem about right for the majority of the games and the teams that seem like the right side are scary to bet on. Initially we thought about having a quiet week and after some thought decided we’re in Vegas so we might as well take a few more risks than normal. Buyer beware if you’re tailing as we’re going mildly reckless and crossing our fingers a bit. Despite that, and some admittedly square bets, our confidence is high so we’re looking to extend our winning record and not take a step backwards. We’ve got two plays locked in that hit the 3.5 rule (more on that below), a teaser that lines up with numbers, and a total in the AFC East showdown between the Jets and Dolphins. Yes, really. Five plays overall for an action-packed NFL weekend.
Tennessee Titans vs. Carolina Panthers
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (4-4) ATS(3-4-1) at Carolina Panthers (4-3) ATS(4-3)
Sunday November 3rd
1:00pm
CBS
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Carolina Panthers -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
Things change quickly in the NFL as what looked Marcus Mariota vs. Cam Newton has morphed into Ryan Tannehill against Kyle Allen when the Titans travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Tannehill has played well after taking over for the benched Mariota while Kyle Allen came crashing down to earth against a tough 49er defense a week ago. Tennessee is hoping they can ride the momentum that their new QB has provided while Carolina is looking for Allen to rebound at home.
It’s been said before a backup quarterback can give a jolt to an ailing team and that has certainly been the case with the Titans. They’ve looked energized on both sides of the ball since Tannehill has been installed at QB and we’re finally seeing some play out of their wide receivers in pushing the ball downfield. The Panthers secondary was obliterated last weekend as they were gashed repeatedly on the ground and consequently burned through the air when they committed extra guys to stop the run. Tennessee was no doubt watching and will gladly try to follow that gameplan as that is what they prefer to do as an offense to begin with. There’s a couple of differences however in this game that should help Carolina rebound a bit defensively. Returning home always helps as playing with the roar of the home crowd will be an asset in more ways than one. Additionally they’ll face Derrick Henry who has a much different running style than what burned them against San Francisco. The Niners’ used the outside speed, misdirection and zone blocking to get slice the Panther defense on the edges. The Titans running game is a lot more plodding and physical which will be a little easier for Carolina to handle on the interior. Coming off of the embarrassment they faced they’ll no doubt be looking to get back to their physical and attacking style and looking to put pressure on Tannehill and the passing game. Delanie Walker will miss his second game which will force the Titans to throw to their receivers on the outside. The Panthers have done pretty well against opposing wideouts so they’re key will be keeping the Titans from hitting big plays over the top. If they can do that, they should find themselves in a pretty good spot holding down Tennessee.
Flipping things around, the Titans have mostly played good defense this season as you’d expect under head coach Mike Vrabel leading a veteran group. There is one glaring hole in this game and that is that the Titans best interior run stuffer and pocket pushing lineman Jurell Casey will not be able to play. Having that hole in the defense is very unfortunate timing as they’ll be facing Christian McCaffrey who has been video-game like all season no matter who he is facing. He’s clearly the engine that makes this team go and if he can get started early it will soften things up in the passing game for Kyle Allen and his receivers. Greg Olsen has been pretty quiet in recent weeks and this is a spot where the Panthers should really look to feature him as the Titans have struggled defending tight ends throughout the season. There will be a fierce battle in the trenches on both sides in this game which is why the absence of Casey is so huge. Carolina should be able to win this battle which should have a large impact on who wins this game.
KEY STATS – The Titans are 6-15 ATS on the road against teams with
winning records
Tennessee is a team that is rarely not competitive in their games and this one shouldn’t be an exception to that. It’s a little risky laying more than the FG against a team like the Titans but this spread really is too low at 3.5. We’ve got it calculated at closer to -5 so there is a little value here. Additionally, as we mentioned in the open, teams favored by 3.5 cover at a ridiculous near 68% of the time as the sportsbooks are looking to get the public on the opposing team. This one should be a tight game so if you’re looking for a potential snorer this wouldn’t qualify as that. Christian McCaffrey should have a big game as usual and it should be enough to get the Panthers the win and the cover at home.
BetCrushers Take: Carolina Panthers -3.5
Carolina Panthers 29, Tennessee Titans 23
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) ATS(5-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) ATS(4-4)
Sunday November 3rd
1:00pm
FOX
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) (no Mahomes)
Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
Patrick Mahomes is listed as questionable and if he plays this will be the game of the week to watch in the NFL with all due respect to the Ravens and Patriots. Even if Mahomes can’t go this should be a good one and certainly an important one as the Vikings and Chiefs face off eyeing division titles. We’ve got a small wager in already on this game, but won’t be making an official play until the final injury report is released and we know whether or not Mahomes will be lining up under center.
At the beginning of the season the thought of taking Kirk Cousins to win a football game on the road against a good football team would have been laughable. In fact, it was one of the easier bets to make in the NFL to go against him and his team in those scenarios. Here we are going into week 9 and all of a sudden it’s like the light bulb has gone off and Cousins has figured out how to consistently play well in this league. He’ll have another opportunity to support that theory as he’ll be playing in one of the most hostile road stadiums against a team that is hungry for a win and certainly not short on talent. Before we get too far with that,let’s take a step back and look at what the key to this game really might be for the Vikings on offense and that is their workhorse Dalvin Cook running the football. The Chiefs have not been great stopping the running and Cook has been mostly unstoppable so far this season. Cook is in line for another big day of steady 5 and 6 yard runs mixing in the occasional big play when it presents itself. The Chiefs may be aided by the return of DL Chris Jones and they’re hoping to get their prized free agent Frank Clark back as well. If they don’t, they could find themselves in serious trouble against this Vikings offensive line and their running attack. Even if they do get them back, it’s difficult to see KC bottling Cook and backup Alexander Mattison up on the ground. Getting back to Cousins, this is a game where he needs to go with the flow of the game and not try to do too much if it’s not necessary. Adam Thielen is also a question mark and that would of course be a big blow to the Vikings offense. Thielen was able to get some practice in Friday so it’s possible he might be able to give it a go. If he can’t go, Stefon Diggs will once again be counted on to stretch the field and make big plays in the passing game. Most importantly, Kirk Cousins can’t get rattled with the noise in Arrowhead and needs to be safe with the football. Punts won’t derail the Vikings in this game, but turnovers absolutely will.
Matt Moore performed admirably last week and gave the Chiefs offense some light hitting some big plays and throwing a pair of touchdowns. With weapons like the Chiefs have on offense, any NFL QB should be able to make some things happen if they can simply get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Credit Andy Reid for having a solid gameplan to help make Moore comfortable and successful. The scary part about this game for the KC offense is they will be missing possibly three starters on the offensive line which is not good when facing a defense that thrives on getting pressure on the quarterback. In order for the Chiefs to hit their big plays they need to give the QB time which looks like could be a big problem with those injuries. Look for Andy Reid to try to work the running game as much as he can early to slow down the Vikings pass rush and whether or not they can establish a running game will be a key component to their overall success.
KEY STATS – The Vikings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 early games
Square bet alert! Yes we know laying points on the road at Arrowhead is a very dicey thing to do and something the public will absolutely be doing. As of Friday 63% of the public money was in fact on Minnesota as fans believe the Chiefs cannot win without Mahomes at QB. While that isn’t entirely true, this seems like one of those games the public will actually come away happy with and we want in on that action. We’re waiting to load up and make this an official play however until we know for sure what the status of Mahomes will be for the game we’re just slightly in. Assuming he is out, we’ll be laying the -1.5 and looking for the Vikings to continue their 1:00 o’clock game dominance that they’ve enjoyed since last season.
BetCrushers Take: Vikings -1.5
Minnesota Vikings 28, Kansas City Chiefs 24
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers
vs. 
Green Bay Packers (7-1) ATS(6-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-5) ATS(2-4-2)
Sunday November 3rd
4:25pm
CBS
Rokit Field at Dignity Health Sports Park – Carson, CA
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
Another road favorite takes the field when the Green Bay Packers invade Los Angeles to take on the struggling Chargers who narrowly escaped with a desperate win against the Bears one week ago. The word invade is literal for this game as you can expect the stadium to be 75% or more Packer fans as the Chargers again will be frustrated with their lack of support in their own stadium. Can Green Bay stay hot and atop the very competitive NFC North or will the Chargers put together back-to-back wins to stay relevant in the jumbled AFC playoff race?
Anyone on the Aaron Rodgers is in the discussion for greatest quarterback of all-time is greatly mistaken and unless you live in Wisconsin you should get that out of your head right away. However, Rodgers has been ridiculously good this season and is playing some of the best football of his career. He has another solid matchup against a Chargers defense that has struggled a bit despite having some great talent on the roster. We’ve mentioned it before and it can’t be overstated, this team is missing Derwin James big time in their secondary. Additionally, the loss of Brandon Mebane has really hindered their ability to stop the run which has forced them to change their defensive scheme a bit. Under Matt LaFleur Green Bay is finally balanced and is running the ball really well. Aaron Jones looks strong and fast and both he and Jamaal Williams are benefiting from an offensive line that is playing physical and downhill football. They should continue to have that success against the Chargers as they have really had issues in defending the run game much more than they did just a season ago. In the passing game the Packers hope to welcome back Davante Adams as the receiver position as he’s a game-time decision depending on how pregame workouts turn out for him. Somehow Rodgers has gotten enough out of a makeshift group of guys to keep putting points on the board, however you know he’d love to have his Pro Bowl receiver back on the outside. In order for Los Angeles to keep the Packers from lighting the scoreboard up they’re going to need huge efforts from Melvin Ingram coming off of an injury and Joey Bosa who is all of a sudden the second most hyped Bosa in the league after the hot start from his brother in San Francisco. The challenge for Ingram and Bosa is they have to get by David Bahktiari and Bryan Bulaga who are playing some of their best football as well at the tackle position. Watch those two matchups closely and whoever can find more success will be the winner of this game.
The Chargers offense is resembling the Atlanta Falcons a little bit with a veteran quarterback, some well known skill position players and an under-performing offensive line. The return of Russell Okung did help the Bolts’ last week and they’ll need him again as the Packers are flat out getting after opposing quarterbacks with their pass rush. In his career Rivers has been solid against the blitz or rush, however he’s struggled a bit this season. It sure seems like the Chargers are still figuring out how to play with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler as the latter has been more productive and efficient, yet Gordon and the team seem fixated on regaining their glory from last season. Rivers also continues to struggle getting the ball on the outside to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen forcing a lot of checkdowns and short passes. While there isn’t anything wrong with that approach that’s not how the Chargers put up a great record a year ago as this team needs at the very minimum the occasional big play down the field. Against the Packers they’ll need to attack on the ground as that is where this team has been vulnerable this season so maybe they can get the Gordon/Ekeler thing figured out Sunday.
KEY STATS – The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games
The Chargers are that team that just always seems to be involved in a field goal football game so once again the hook with Green Bay -3.5 seems a little nerve racking. We’re again going to play the 3.5 rule as the Packers are a substantially better football team and are essentially playing on a neutral field against a somewhat dysfunctional team. If we’re going to make one square bet this weekend, we might as well go ahead and make two. Go Pack Go. SIDE NOTE – If you shop this line you can find -3 or buy the half point for reasonable juice if you feel safer having that in your back pocket in the case of a field goal win.
BetCrushers Take: Packers -3.5
Green Bay Packers 28, Los Angeles Chargers 23
Teaser Bet
Houston vs. Jacksonville and Detroit vs. Oakland
vs.
and 
vs. 
Houston Texans (5-3) (4-4 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) (5-3 ATS)
Sunday November 3rd
9:30am
CBS
Wembley Stadium – London, England
Houston Texans -2 (-110)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
Detroit Lions (3-3-1) (4-3 ATS) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)(4-3 ATS)
Sunday November 3rd
4:05pm
FOX
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum – Oakland, CA
Oakland Raiders -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Every once in a while you have to take some chances that maybe don’t feel great based upon the numbers that are floating out there. With teasers the number is almost always the key factor which is exactly what we have with these two games. The Texans and Jaguars wrap up the London series early Sunday morning at Wembley and the Raiders return home for the first time in five weeks to host the Lions.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: JACKSONVILLE +8 and DETROIT +8.5
Houston is the “road team” in London as they face Jacksonville who actually may enjoy a slight home field advantage in this game. Although it will be quarterback Gardner Minshew’s first game across the pond, several of the Jaguar coaches and players have gotten used to making this trip, and subsequently will have the support of the crowd at Wembley Stadium. All of a sudden this game takes on a lot of importance in both the AFC South and the potential wild card race as the Jags’ are suddenly hot and nipping at the Texans heels. These teams played a tough defensive battle earlier this season with the Jaguars falling just short on a two point conversion as time was expiring. When you go back over the past few years these teams have played a lot of close games which is exactly why it makes sense to take a flyer on the Jaguars getting 8 points. Houston is streaky on offense, however Jacksonville has been playing much more consistently on the defensive side of the ball in recent weeks and these teams know each other and their tendencies well. One area Houston will be looking to exploit is the vacancy of departed Jalen Ramsey with their All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins. With Will Fuller out again, Hopkins will be receiving a lot of attention from quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Jaguar defense. Watson has done a great job working in his tight ends the last few weeks and he’ll likely need to continue to do soif Hopkins is seeing repeated double teams. The Texans are optimistic that both Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard can play on the offensive line, or at the very least one of them will be able to go. They can use that help upfront as Jacksonville has cranked up their pass rush since early in the season. Rookie pass rusher Josh Allen is quietly having a really good season and if it weren’t for Nick Bosa we’d probably be hearing a lot more about it.
Gardner Minshew bounced back last week and had a really nice game coming off of a couple of not so stellar performances. Maybe the chatter of Nick Foles returning from his collarbone injury have helped kick him into another gear. Leonard Fournette has been punishing on the ground all season and is quietly near the top of the rushing chain halfway through the season. With J.J. Watt’s season unfortunately over after sustaining his torn muscle last week look for Fournette to have another strong day. The Texans have played without Watt before, but there is a clear difference of when he is on the field and when he isn’t. D.J. Chark continues to put up good numbers and find the end zone and he could be primed for a big day if Minshew indeed has ample time in the pocket.
At first glance the Lions and Raiders doesn’t seem to be the most appealing game of the weekend on the NFL Card, however this one could turn out to be a pretty exciting game. The Black Hole will be fired up as they haven’t had a home game in well over a month and the Raiders tenure in California slowly begins to wind down. Behind Darren Waller who just continues to find himself open and making big plays at tight end, and Josh Jacobs and the running game the Raiders are finding ways to score. Welcoming Tyrell Williams back to the lineup doesn’t hurt either as Derek Carr has enough decent weapons to move the chains and put points on the board. The improved line play in front of him from last season continues to be one of the reasons they are having more success than many people believed. They have a nice matchup against a Lions defense that is really struggling to stop people both running, and particularly throwing the football. Going on the road, it’s hard to believe Matt Patricia will be able to find ways to keep the Raiders down in this one so it’ll be up to his offense to outscore Oakland if they want to leave with a win.
Speaking of that offense, Carson Palmer all of a sudden doesn’t seem so crazy for suggesting Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback in the league. Stafford may be playing the best that he has in his entire career as the Lions are reaping the rewards of surrounding Stafford with a lot of weapons to throw the ball too. The season ending injury to Kerryon Johnson can’t be taken lightly, but Detroit was able to generate just enough of a running game in his absence to keep the team balanced. The Raiders have played good defense during stretches this season, however they’ll struggle to keep pace with the Lions weapons. Marvin Jones, Jr. and Kenny Golladay have winnable position battles and Danny Amendola has been a catch machine in the slot the past two weeks. T.J. Hockenson has quieted down since his week one explosion and it’s likely he’ll be worked into the gameplan this week as well. The Lions realize they need to put points up to win and it seems like this game could go back and forth throughout where the last team with the ball wins.
A teaser is always as much about picking numbers as it is picking jersey names and this game is a perfect example. The familiarity between the Texans and Jaguars should keep that game close and don’t underestimate the Jaguars faux homefield advantge in England. The Lions may not pull out a victory in Oakland, however they should be able to keep it within a touchdown. Can these underdogs stay within the teased number with the help of the six points? We sure think so. SIDE NOTE – The over is a good play here as well.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Jacksonville +8 and Detroit +8.5
Jaguars 26, Texans 24 and Raiders 31, Lions 27
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
New York Jets (1-6) (2-5 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (0-7) (3-4 ATS)
Sunday November 3rd
1:00pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
New York Jets -3 (-110)
Over/Under 42 (-110)
We should look for the over/under on attendance for the 1-6 Jets at 0-7 Dolphins game in Miami on Sunday as each team is desperate for a win. There’s a lot at stake in this game, although really more for the loser than the winner as these teams are clearly planning for next season and beyond. Can the Dolphins rally and get their first win or will the Jets find a way to mediocrity again?
It may sound a little crazy at first but this is an insanely important game for the Jets and specifically their quarterback Sam Darnold. Young quarterbacks can certainly have a tendency to have some ups and downs, but there are a lot of people who are questioning whether or not he can play in this league after his return from mono has been a complete debacle. There isn’t much more that you can ask for than a game against the Miami Dolphins and their roster on defense that is void of much NFL caliber talent. It actually probably helps that they’re playing in Miami away from the New York crowd to take some pressure off of Darnold. Simply stated, Sam Darnold needs to play well and the Jets need to win this football game. If they struggle and he continues to turn the ball over it could get really ugly in the media and within the psyche of the young QB. The first thing the Jets should obviously do is feature LeVeon Bell against a team that is last against stopping the run. If the Jets don’t run Bell a minimum of 20 times then shame on Adam Gase and his coaching staff. Give the Dolphins a little credit as they continue to play hard for their head coach Brian Flores, they just simply don’t have enough talent to compete in this league right now. Losing cornerback Xavien Howard only makes things tougher so Darnold and his receiving crew have no excuses not to play well.
Speaking of giving some credit where it’s due, how about the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing his body around like they’re playing to get to the Super Bowl and he’s 23 years old? There’s a reason he’s still starting and deep down you gotta pull for this guy at least a little bit. The Dolphins also have some nice options against the Jets who just shipped off their former first round pick Leonard Williams to the Giants and will be missing C.J. Mosley who re-aggravated his groin injury. Mark Walton is now the man in the running game with Kenyan Drake traded to the Cardinals and like Bell, he should get a lot of work in this game. Unlike many on the Dolphin roster, Walton is a legitimate NFL talent, he just needs to stay out of trouble off the field. In limited action he’s looked good for Miami and could have a good game Sunday. Preston Williams and Davante Parker give Fitzpatrick enough weapons to make them dangerous through the air and the Dolphins offensive line has played much better than you would have thought when you evaluate it on paper.
Due to the ineptness of these teams this was crossed out early as a game we weren’t interested in playing. After taking some time to review it more closely there really seems to be some value in the moderately low point total in this one. We’re obviously taking a chance in the fact that we need two really bad teams to put together enough offense to score touchdowns, however the breakdown here is really pretty simple. The offenses aren’t very good, but the defenses are even worse. These organizations may be more focused on the first pick in the draft, while we’re focused on watching some bad football players find the endzone just enough to get us a payday.
