PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-1

SEASON RESULTS:
39-33

Week 12 Recap:

A nice bounce-back in week 12 as our four wagers resulted in a net positive 3-1 result. Fading J.J. McCarthy was almost too easy, and is something that needs to continue happening until the books drastically reduce his lines. Taking the under with Bijan Robinson was a little sweatier, as Robinson broke a couple of nice runs in the first half. Fortunately, he never really made much happen in the second half, which allowed us to get the cover there. Matthew Stafford continued his MVP run in primetime, pretty easily eclipsing his yardage total against a banged up Buccaneers team. Our lone loss was a frustrating one, as we were backing Zach Charbonnet to get 36 rushing yards. Charbonnet got just 3 carries in the first half, despite a big lead against the Titans, but turned those into 25 yards. Ten yards in the second half seemed very do-able with a lead and against a poor defense, but he managed just 6 yards on 3 carries in the second half and fell short for our lone defeat of the weekend.

Week 13 Preview:

Five wagers on the card for week thirteen including a fading some stars, and backing some running backs. Hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving, let’s get these leftovers for Sunday!

Our Picks:

Justin Jefferson – Under 59.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Are we reading this correctly? Justin Jefferson is now sitting with yardage totals in the high 50’s. Who would have thought that as a guy who in recent seasons had totals literally eclipsing 100 yards. It’s pretty apparent to everyone that it’s not Jefferson himself, who has fallen off a cliff, but the performance of the other players around him. (If you need more evidence of that, look at Jordan Addison’s numbers the last couple of weeks). Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has struggled mightily, and is now out with a concussion, clearing the way for the first start of Max Brosmer’s NFL career. While it’s tough to see Brosmer doing any worse than McCarthy, it’s tough to envision him doing much better, as he’ll have to navigate a tough environment, and an even tougher defense in the Seattle Seahawks. There is obviously no historical data involved in fading Jefferson, it’s simply that a rookie QB against a tough defense seems like a really tough assignment to get done. Sure, it’s very possible Brosmer will force the ball to his WR1, or the Vikings are getting blown out and collect some garbage yards at the end, but there seems to be enough evidence here to show that Minnesota is going to struggle, and Jefferson’s challenges will continue.

Daniel Jones – Under 229.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Watching practice videos can give a false sense of information, but if you caught the video of Daniel Jones in practice on Wednesday, you’ve got to be concerned. Jones looked completely immobile, as his cracked fibula is clearly causing him some discomfort. This makes fading him a nice option in week 13, as there is a possibility he may not even be able to finish the game if he starts. Of course, we can’t assume that happening, so let’s dive into his matchup a little closer. Jones will be facing the top pass rush duo in the league in Will Anderson, Jr. and Danielle Hunter, and the overall top pass defense in the league. When you’re playing against a pair of edge rushers like that, you need to be able to move around in the pocket, which looks as though it will be difficult for Jones to do. After looking to have the AFC South all sewed up just a couple of weeks ago, the Texans are now riding high, and are hot on the heels of Jones and the Colts. This is a critical matchup for both, so expect good against good all game. Jones started the season out hot, but has cooled a bit of late, including just a 181 yard overtime effort last week against the Chiefs in a tough loss. Against almost any other team or scenario, an over at this total for Jones would make sense. However, in this matchup, with his potential limitations we like the under.

James Cook – 12.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

At the start of week 13, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are all on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. The Bills Josh Allen is hanging on by a thread after taking a beating last week against the Texans. Things don’t look much better this weekend for Allen as he’ll be without both of his starting offensive tackles, and potentially minus three of his top four receiving weapons. What is a little better for Allen and the Bills is they won’t be facing the stingy Texans pass defense, they’ll be facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses when they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. Allen has been a little reluctant to take the checkdown short throws this season, leading to more turnovers than we saw a season ago. On Sunday, he simply is going to have no choice. T.J. Watt and company are going to be causing havoc for Allen, and there are only so many bubble screens a team can throw. He’s going to have to dump some passes off by pure circumstance, and if the Bills are smart, they’ll have some passes worked up for Cook to begin with. Cook is averaging over 20 yards receiving a game, and has the breakaway ability to make big plays. Everything is lined up for him here to have some receiving yards in this matchup.

Rico Dowdle – Under 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Panthers running back Rico Dowdle remains near the top of the rushing yards leaderboard in the NFL despite not really getting heavy touches until week six of the season. He has cooled off a bit the last few weeks as a combination of tougher opponents, the return of Chuba Hubbard, and defenses keying on him have all factored. Week 13 is perhaps his toughest test to date as he’ll be facing a Los Angeles Rams team that looks like it’s destined for a Super Bowl appearance, playing well on both sides of the ball. That presents a problem for Dowdle, as the Rams are holding opponents under 3.9 yards per carry on the season, and perhaps even more challenging, they’re building leads in games. Other than a random breakout performance two weeks ago from Bryce Young and the passing game, this offense can often struggle to put points on the board. And while the Carolina defense has been markedly improved year over year, they’re not elite enough to slow down the Rams on offense. This game has negative game script written all over it for Dowdle. Even if for some change the game doesn’t get away, Dowdle is still not guaranteed to put up huge numbers against this Rams defense. Dowdle is impressive, but this is not the week to back him. We’ll go under here as well.

TreVeyon Henderson – Over 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

It took longer than a lot of people thought it should for TreVeyon Henderson to wrestle away the RB1 spot for the New England Patriots, but he’s here now, and should be able to hold onto that position. Last week was a good trial, as we saw the return of Rhamondre Stevenson, and what we saw was Henderson getting 2/3 of the snaps and even more of the carries. That pattern should hold true, and Henderson has the juiciest matchup of the weekend against the New York Giants. The Giants are approaching allowing 2,000 yards on the ground on the season, and are allowing a mind-boggling six yards per carry to opponents. As much as this is a play on Henderson, who has the ability to break some long runs, this is really just a play and indictment against the Giants run defense. It’s worth noting that weather looks cold and windy on Sunday as well, which means both teams may have to lean on the ground even more than normal as we head into December. For the rest of the year you can probably count on us backing whatever running back is facing the Giants, and this week that guy happens to be TreVeyon Henderson.

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