PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-5

SEASON RESULTS:
36-32

Week 11 Recap:

Back-to-back tough weekends at the Prop Corner, as we finished the weekend at an ugly 1-5 mark, moving our season record to 36-32. Despite getting relegated to RB2, Jacory Croskey-Merritt still have plenty of opportunities to hit his rushing mark against the Dolphins, but was unable to make it happen. Jaylen Warren put a nice effort together, but Kenneth Gainwell poached some of his workload, and as a result he wasn’t able to get to his combined yardage total either. Josh Jacobs was injured in the first half of their matchup with the Giants, and as a result never threatened his mark. The chance you take with player prop overs. Somehow, the one player we faded, Cam Ward, was able to just sneak by his yardage total against the Texans. Our other loss was Devonta Smith who saw a whopping 2 targets for the Eagles, and Jalen Hurts never even attempted to throw the ball down the field. Our lone win was backing Christian Watson, who came up big for the Packers in their victory. A paltry 1-8 over our last nine wagers here. We have to be better, and we will.

Week 12 Preview:

After some deliberation, we opted to stick with just four wagers in an effort to get back on a nice win streak. There are several players that are appealing to back, for example, Hunter Henry in a favorable matchup against the Bengals. But there’s just too much uncertainty there, even in a matchup where he should thrive. So we stuck with all NFC players, backing and fading both a quarterback and a running back for the weekend. Let’s see if we can right this ship.

Our Picks:

JJ McCarthy – Under 187.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Remember those days of old where rookie quarterbacks were given seasons to figure things out in the National Football League? The times, they are a changing, and for the Vikings J.J. McCarthy, that’s not a good thing. After a couple of early flashes in his debut season, McCarthy has struggled, and even casual fans are starting to notice. When you have a good offensive scheme, Justin Jefferson, and a slew of other capable weapons, throwing the football shouldn’t be that difficult. Yet it’s been painful for McCarthy and this Vikings offense so far this season. McCarthy has only thrown for 200 yards once this season, and has averaged around 150 yards per game in the other contests. Sunday he’ll face a Green Bay Packers defense that can both get pressure, and knows the Vikings strengths. In hostile environment in cold-weather Lambeau Field, this would appear to be another type of game where McCarthy could be challenged. The Vikings team has stayed competitive in most of their games, so that should keep the game script from becoming too big of a factor for garbage time. We’re expecting a low-scoring game and a low yardage game for J.J.

Bijan Robinson – Under 83.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

A season that just a month ago seemed so promising for the Atlanta Falcons has fizzled into pain, as the team is not only battling losses, but losing key personnel as well. When they face the Saints on Sunday they’ll be without quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., and star wideout Drake London. That leaves running back Bijan Robinson as the last man standing on the Falcons offense. It certainly should lead to a lot of work for Robinson, as Atlanta will want to run their offense through their star running back, but the Saints know this as well. New Orleans is not exactly a fearsome defense across the league, but they do rank in the top 10 in rush defense in most categories. Without weapons on the outside to worry about, and an immobile quarterback in Kirk Cousins, that should result in Robinson seeing a lot of guys in the box at the line of scrimmage. Robinson is always a threat to break a long one, and he’s going to get a lot of touches, so fade at your own risk here. We’re thinking the Saints can do enough to keep him under here.

Matthew Stafford – Over 256.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Matthew Stafford’s yardage totals this season are a bit of a rollercoaster ride, and were in a valley last week against a tough Seahawks defense. He’ll look to rebound against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what should be an entertaining NFC matchup in prime time. Stafford should be able to rebound, as the Buccaneers continue to employ a run-stop offense first, and are often willing to take chances in pass defense. It’s worth noting that the Bucs will probably be without their top cornerback Jamel Dean, which leaves them very thin against the talented duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Add in the fact that the Buccaneers have not been able to steadily rush the passer, and everything is lining up for a big day for Stafford and the Rams in the cozy settings of SoFi Stadium. Look for Stafford to reignite the MVP talk with a big performance on the national stage.

Zach Charbonnet – Over 37.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

This wager took a little bit of talking ourselves into, as Zach Charbonnet has not exactly set the league on fire this year on the ground. One thing the Seahawks running back has done is consistently get about a dozen carries a game. We’re actually expecting a little more than that Sunday for a pair of reasons. First, Kenneth Walker enters the game banged up, which means Charbonnet may have an uptick of totes to begin with. But it’s a game script thing here, as the Seahawks are double-digit favorites against the Titans and should be able to dominate them in this game. If they’re leading, you can expect a lot of handoffs in the second half of the game. Charbonnet figures to be the biggest benefactor of those rushes. With this rushing total set at what is essentially his average per game, the script and situation make it too appealing to pass on.

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