PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-2

SEASON RESULTS:
31-22

Week 8 Recap:

A second week in a row of mediocre .500 Prop Corner as we split the four bets we had at an even 2 wins and 2 losses. Things started out kind of ugly as we had a play on Bijan Robinson and Tua Tagovailoa in the early window on Sunday. Robinson was shockingly quiet, and Tua managed to be the first opponent to throw on the Falcons this season putting us in the early 0-2 hole. Fortunately, things rebounded in the late window as Jonathan Taylor just continues his tear on opposing defenses, and J.K. Dobbins also hit 100 yards against the struggling Cowboys defense. A lot of research for not a lot of result, but also nothing too disastrous either.

Week 9 Preview:

It’s a lucky seven kind of week for Prop Corner, at least we hope.  After being .500 the last two weeks, this will hopefully be the week we get back on the profit train and improve our yearly mark.  Lots of fun player props this weekend.  Best of luck to you and yours!

Our Picks:

D’Andre Swift – Over 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Our first player prop is really just the simplest version of not trying to overthink things.  Bears running back D’Andre Swift got off to a slow start this season.  This was likely a result of entering the season a little dinged up, and learning a new offensive system.  He has picked it up in recent weeks going for over 100 yards in 2 of the last 3 contests.  Sunday he’ll face arguably the worst defense in the league when he takes on the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bears should be able to attack through the air as well, but this should simply open things up even more for Swift.  The Bengals run defense ranks in the bottom six in essentially every meaningful rushing metric.  To make matters worse, they just cut a key rotational piece at defensive tackle as Mike Pennel forced his way off of the roster.  The equation here is – Running back getting hot, facing a defense in turmoil.  Don’t overthink it.

Kimani Vidal – Over 76.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Speaking of not overthinking it, the Los Angeles Chargers are taking on the Tennessee Titans in week nine.  Tennessee has their own turmoil and has already begun selling the few assets they have on the roster.  One of those assets is still on the roster as of Friday morning, but doesn’t look like he’ll be playing as defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons looks as though he’ll miss his second straight game.  The Titans defense wasn’t great with Simmons, but he was single-handedly willing them to at least fight.  Last week this defense looked completely lost and uninspired, in addition to lacking enough talent to compete.  Enter the Chargers and Kimani Vidal.  The young runner was essentially an afterthought heading into the season as rookie Omarion Hampton and veteran Najee Harris were the top guys on the depth chart.  A season ending injury to Harris and an IR stint for Hampton opened the door for Vidal, and he’s charged through it, rushing for over 100 yards in 2 of his last 3 games.  When Vidal has had opportunity for LA, he’s produced.  Now against the Titans bottom 5 run defense, he comes in as a nine point favorite that should see the Chargers running a lot in the second half of the game.  The return of left tackle Joe Alt gave the Chargers offensive line a huge boost last week and we should see a repeat of that.  Vidal goes for 100 in what might be his last “prove it” start before Hampton returns.

Bo Nix – Under 209.5 Yards Passing (-115)

For us, the jury is still kind of out on Broncos QB Bo Nix.  At times he looks like an MVP candidate, and at other times he makes things look really difficult.  That’s understandable as a young player in the league.  We’re banking on Nix looking more like a rookie than a Pro Bowler in his road matchup against the Houston Texans.  For our money, the Texans have the best overall defense in the league, and are proving it with different metrics such as scoring, EPA, etc.  That should continue as their pass rush should be able to get to Nix, and their secondary is talented enough to not let their weapons beat them over the top.  It’s worth pointing out, that Nix has also been substantially better in home performances, than on the road.  On the other side of the ball, Houston most likely won’t be lighting it up either, against a very good Broncos defense.  We could see more punts in this game than we’re used to seeing this season.  This is normally a number Nix would be able to hit, but this matchup seems like the right opportunity to fade him. 

Josh Allen – Over 39.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Hard to believe this will already be the tenth time that Josh Allen and the Bills are matching up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.  Somewhere along the way they went from the young gunslingers of the future, to the veteran faces of the league in this always important AFC clash.  The total for this game here is set in the low 50’s as both teams are expected to score fairly easily.  In terms of passing, nothing has come easy for the Bills since their week one win against the Ravens.  The Bills receivers struggle to generate separation, and they’ve not been able to find a consistent red zone target.  As a result the Bills have become a run-centric team, leaning on James Cook, and to a smaller extent Josh Allen to move the sticks and put points on the board.  The Chiefs defense has been stout against opposing running backs, which could spell some trouble for the Bills if Allen’s receivers can’t get open.  Worth mentioning, he’ll be without WR Joshua Palmer, and TE Dalton Kincaid is battling through a knee injury.  To us, that means that Allen is going to have very little choice in this matchup but to run, maybe for his life.  Prior to last year’s AFC Championship matchup, where he was right around this number, he had eclipsed 50+ in the previous 3 meetings against the Chiefs. Seems like a strategy of necessity in this game.  Side Note – You can get even to plus money on Allen as an anytime touchdown scorer, which might be worth a look.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Under 49.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The opportunities are right in front of preseason hype running back “Bill” Jacory Croskey-Merritt to become a household running back name, but he hasn’t been able to capitalize on this yet.  Part of this is because he’s had to split some time with different backs, which he will continue to do against the Seahawks, but it seems to have more with the lack of a strong offensive blocking attack by the Commanders offensive line.  That’s a problem when trying to run the ball, particularly when Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil is trying to play through injury.  Our bigger concern for Croskey-Merritt in week nine is his opponent, as the Seahawks defense is molding into one of the top units in the league.  They’ve passed the Browns as the top rush stopping unit in the league and are allowing barely over 3 yards per carry to opposing teams.  The Commanders face a bit of an uphill challenge as underdogs to the Seahawks, and will be without top wideout Terry McLaurin yet again after he was re-injured last weekend.  None of this bodes well for the Commanders, who may have to lean on Jayden Daniels to do the heavy lifting to move the sticks.  Unless Croskey-Merritt can get loose for a big gain, something he hasn’t really done this season overall, he should fall short of this mark in a touch matchup. 

Christian McCaffrey – Over 124.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

Depending on how you analyze things, you can say that Christian McCaffrey is having a “down” type of season, or an amazing All-Pro type of campaign.  The down chatter comes from McCaffrey averaging only 3.4 yards per carry as the Niners haven’t been able to get their running game going.  The positives are McCaffrey has pretty much been the lone contributor on offense (no offense Kendrick Bourne) while the team has been without it’s starting quarterback, tight end and receivers for most of the year.  The 49ers are starting to get healthier, and having George Kittle back should really loosen things up for McCaffrey in the second part of the season.  San Francisco takes on a feisty New York Giants team that is playing with some swagger, despite having a really poor defense.  They have been gashed on the ground, and have allowed opposing backs to get open out of the backfield. We backed McCaffrey two weeks ago, and he fell just shy of his mark despite being well within reach in the 4th quarter, but we’re going to give him another shot here against a Giants defense allowing well over 5 yards per carry.  Run CMC.

Javonte Williams – Over 60.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

When you think of the top running backs in the league, Javonte Williams isn’t generally a name that jumps out to most NFL fans.  Somewhat surprisingly, Williams has ranked in the top five for rushing since a hot start in week one.  He’s not all that far off the pace of leaders Jonathan Taylor and James Cook to put it in perspective.  The Cowboys solid offensive line play, along with a healthy Dak Prescott and weapons undoubtedly has benefitted the running lanes that Williams sees in a lot of soft cover two type zone looks.  Dallas will face an improved Cardinals defense that has been markedly better than a season ago, but still isn’t considered a top-tier unit.  It’s probably just lack of name recognition, but the top backs in the league generally have their rushing totals in the 70’s, 80’s and even 90’s in some cases.  Williams sitting at just over 60, in a matchup that isn’t too brutal just seems like lack of respect and recognition for what he’s done this season.  Sure, Dallas is going to wing it around a lot through the air, but this definitely seems like an opportunity for Williams to get 70+ yards.  We’ll take the over.

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