PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-1

SEASON RESULTS:
2-1

Week 1 Recap:

It was a pretty exciting opening weekend of NFL games, capped off by a couple of really fun and improbable comebacks on Sunday and Monday night. Week one is as much about observation and learning than anything else, and we all got a glimpse of some players who appear poised for some productive seasons, and some who may not end up performing consistently. We’ll take any kind of win in week one, and having gone light with just three wagers for Prop Corner, we’ll be happy with a 2-1 mark to start things out. Speaking of starting out, the first cover belonged to rookie tight end Tyler Warren who beat his yardage total on the first drive of the game as the Colts put on a clinic against a concerning Dolphins team. Kyle Pitts was also a heavily involved contributor for the Falcons as we figured and cleared his yardage mark fairly comfortably as well. Our loss was with Browns tight end David Njoku, who we learned is going to lose some target share this season to fellow teammate and tight end Harold Fannin, Jr.

Week 2 Preview:

After treading lightly in the opening weekend of the NFL, we’re all systems go during week number two. In fact, we have our second largest slate we’ve ever had with a full eleven wagers on the ticket. It’s a nice combination of some overs and some unders, hitting all of the skill positions in a series of different matchups. We’re fading some of the NFL’s top talent, and looking for big performances from others. Whatever you play in week two, have fun and find those winners!

Our Picks:

Caleb Williams – Over 216.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Year two didn’t get off to a great start for Caleb Williams and the Bears as the young QB looked shaky, at best in their opener. Things don’t get easier as the Bears travel to Detroit to take on the Lions on Sunday. Our normal tendency is to fade the Bears signal-caller, however, we’re actually going over on his yardage in this one. The demise of the Lions offense is a little premature after seeing how well Green Bay looks on the defensive side of the ball. Look for a bounce back from Detroit, which means the Bears are going to have to throw the ball a lot. In fact, imagine game scripts similar to when these teams played a season ago. Williams had two of his highest yardage totals because they were playing from a healthy deficit for a good portion of the game. The Lions are pretty stout against the run, and the Bears running game isn’t going to scare too many people this season. Williams may not win, or even play well in this matchup, but he should be able to get over this total.

Kenneth Walker – Under 64.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

The Pittsburgh Steelers were absolutely run all over in week one, as they allowed Breece Hall and Justin Fields to go wild. That had to drive Mike Tomlin insane, as a coach who prides his team on stopping the run. Perhaps it was the uncertainty of having to defend both the running back and the quarterback on the ground? If that were the case, that’s not something they’ll need to worry about with Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold. The Steelers should have a more inspired effort in front of the home crowd, in a game that may end up being a lot more of defensive battle against the Seahawks. Sitting at 64.5 yards combined, that number seems beatable for Hawks’ running back Kenneth Walker III. We’re not so sure that he’s going to get there however, as he looked very slow in their week one contest. In fact, he ended up splitting time with Zach Charbonnet, who outperformed Walker by over a two to one margin. Don’t be surprised if Charbonnet outsnaps or is at least close in playing time yet again on Sunday. If Walker isn’t getting a ton of playing time, and the Steelers recommit to stopping the run, it could lead to minimal production for him. We’ll fade him here.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Over 64.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

We mentioned a potential Lions revival on offense, and if that happens, it means Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are focal points in the attack. St. Brown is an understandable risk this season without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, but after a slow start, expect Detroit to try to get him involved early and often. In the comfort of their dome with the home crowd behind him, this is a good spot for him to get on track, even against a good Bears pass defense. In their matchups a season ago St. Brown hit 70+ in both contests as he generally is able to avoid Jaylon Johnson in coverage. Expect a lot of targets, and a solid performance from him in this contest. If we see his yardage total with a 6 as the first number, it feels like a must play.

Tyler Warren – Over 43.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Last Sunday Colts rookie tight end Tyler Warren was our fastest and easiest cash of our three prop bets as he covered halfway through the first quarter. As we discussed, we expected that in a few weeks his yardage totals would likely be in the 50’s for most of the regular season. The sportsbooks adjusted a bit for week two, taking him up nine yards, going from 34.5 last week, to 43.5 this week. Daniel Jones looked great last week, and seems very comfortable in his new offense. It will undoubtedly be tougher against the Broncos defense this weekend, but that’s actually why we are going to try a back-to-back cover with Warren. The receivers for the Colts have the ball spread around a bit, but they’ll be working against very good cornerbacks for the Broncos. That means the middle of the field will offer up some opportunities for Jones and the passing game. Warren should be heavily involved in the attack again, and honestly could end up near or leading the team in yards when the game is settled. Let’s see if the rookie can get us to the pay window for a second straight week.

Christian McCaffrey – Over 110.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-110)

All teams in the NFL deal with injuries, but it honestly seems like the 49ers get it worse than anyone year after year. Already without WR Brandon Aiyuk, and with JaJuan Jennings banged up, the team will now travel to New Orleans minus Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle, and starting quarterback Brock Purdy. Ricky Pearsall is a nice option this week, but realistically, when you look at the skill position depth chart for the Niners, it’s all about Christian McCaffrey. We know Kyle Shanahan isn’t afraid of making McCaffrey a workhorse, despite his own injury concerns, and CMC figures to see the ball a lot on Sunday, both in the running game and the passing game. In addition to designed plays for him, a veteran backup quarterback like Mac Jones will know enough to check the ball down to his star running back if the plays aren’t there. As far as the opponent, the Saints are one of, if not the worst team in the league, and other than a few aging names on defense, have very little offer in terms of stopping McCaffrey. The 49ers will try to ride their back to victory, and we’ll go along for that ride.

Mike Evans – Under 64.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

If you have been fading Mike Evans throughout his career in the NFL, you’ve probably lost a substantial amount of money. Evans has been one of the most consistent producers in the league ever since his rookie season. As far as we know, age has not caught up to him much, even at this point in his Hall of Fame career. But do we know if age has caught up this season? Time will tell there, and that’s not the main reason we’re betting against him in week two, but it’s certainly not something that is out of the question. The reason we’re doubting him is strictly because his opponent is flat out nasty on defense. The Houston Texans bring both a fierce pass rush, and lockdown abilities in the secondary, which can make things difficult for any receiver. In week one, we realistically saw the emergence of rookie Emeka Egbuka as a potential star in the league, and someone that quarterback Baker Mayfield has full confidence in. This game has the feel of a low-scoring slug it out type of battle, which means offensive stats might be a little dulled. Mike Evans has 38 career 100 yard football games, so he could certainly blow by the 64.5 number we’re seeing, but this doesn’t seem like the type of game where he’ll go off.

CeeDee Lamb – Over 77.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Most of America was stunned when watching CeeDee Lamb drop a beautiful pass from Dak Prescott versus the Eagles, and then missing a tough grab to end the ballgame. Those are just catches we expect the talented receiver to make at this point in his career. Lamb is a clearly a top five receiver in the league, and you can make an outside argument that he’s number one. That’s why we’re expecting a get right game for CeeDee against the division rival Giants. It’s actually pretty crazy we’d even call it a “get right” game, when Lamb did in fact grab 7 passes for 110 yards against Philly. That’s how high of a standard he’s set when he and quarterback Dak Prescott are both healthy. With Prescott at the helm, Lamb has bested this number in his last four meetings against the New York Giants. The G-Men offer a solid defensive line, but have some vulnerabilities in their back seven. The Cowboys meanwhile, were a team two years ago that scored substantially more points at home than on the road. Look for Lamb to potentially start the year with back-to-back 100 yard games.

JuJu Smith Schuster – Over 34.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Taking an over on JuJu Smith-Schuster is not really something we had on our mind when the season started. Injuries have a funny way of changing the dynamics of players and teams however. Chiefs speedy wideout Xavier Worthy appears poised to miss their game with the Eagles, meaning Hollywood Brown becomes WR1, and Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton will share WR2 responsibilities. Smith-Schuster is the more proven and trustworthy receiver for quarterback Patrick Mahomes in this scenario. If the Eagles play man-to-man, expect Brown to draw a lot of shutdown corner Quinyon Mitchell, which means Smith-Schuster can eat against Adoree Jackson, or whoever he’s match up with. When the Eagles play Cover three zone, which they often do, Smith-Schuster is one of the best middle of the field zone busters you’ll find. Look for the veteran to make the most of his extra opportunities. If he can grab three or four balls as WR2, he should clear this yardage total in an important week two matchup.

Brenton Strange – Over 34.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

A lot of football fans aren’t too familiar with Jaguars new starting tight end Brenton Strange, but there’s a good chance he’ll be a more well-known player soon. Strange is a talented player, in an offense where he is fortunate to not get a lot of defensive attention. The Jaguars like to spread it around, and run the football, and new offensive mind Liam Cohen often works the tight end into the passing game. Even more appealing, is quarterback Trevor Lawrence who has one of the highest rates of passing to the tight end position in the league over the last three seasons. Strange is the new Evan Engram on the roster, and the sportsbooks aren’t quite sure what to do with him just yet. Sunday, Strange will take aim at one of the worst defenses in the league when the Jaguars face the Cincinnati Bengals. Last season, the Bengals allowed the third most yards to tight ends in the league, and don’t appear to be a lot better really anywhere on that side of the ball. Strange racked up 59 yards in their week one victory against the Panthers, and should be line for a similar stat line against Cincinnati. Let’s see if we’re a step ahead of the books on this one?

James Conner – Over 65.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Perhaps the quietest performing consistent running back in the league is the Cardinals James Conner. You don’t hear much about him, yet somehow when he’s in the lineup, he just seems to end each with with 100 yards and a touchdown. This weekend he’s poised for one of those performances, as the Cardinals face the porous defense of the Caroline Panthers. Their defense, which was shredded all last season, was torn apart again in week one, allowing Travis Etienne, Jr. to run wild against them. Now they travel to Arizona, where Conner should see plenty of touches, even with Trey Benson poaching some snaps. The Cardinals are near touchdown favorites, which means if they can build up a lead, they’ll be running a lot in the second half. Conner is a physical runner, and should be able to take advantage of the soft Panthers run defense, at least enough to get himself a cover on Sunday.

Bijan Robinson – Under 65.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Bijan Robinson is one of the most gifted running backs in the league, and in a short time in the league has made many of “wow” type plays. Even the best running backs need some blocking though, and the Falcons are not quite the run-blocking unit they were a couple of seasons ago. Between free agency, and losing right tackle Kaleb McGary, who was a top run blocker, this group isn’t getting the push that we’ve seen in the past. That was evident in the Falcons week one loss to the Buccaneers, as Robinson was stifled on the ground, gaining just 24 yards on a dozen carries. He did manage to rack up some yardage in the receiving game, and may do the same this week against the Vikings. Much like the Bucs’, the Vikings defense is pretty stout against the run, which means the yards may need to come through the air for Atlanta. There’s obviously a risk that comes with fading a player like Robinson, as he could break a 60 yard run at any point, but expect the slow start on the ground to continue in another tough matchup. We’ll go under here and see if the talented Robinson can take us down.

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